US House Redistricting: Texas

[freepcrusher]

i like the pates plan. It throws Marchant, Hensarling, and Poe under the bus and also returns the districts to their natural home (17th district is again based in Abilene, 1st is based in Texarkana, 25th in Houston, 11th in Waco-Temple Area)

[freepcrusher]

all right this is my the last map i'll post of Texas. I drew this map in the mind of a republican opportunist. Do you think the republicans would like this map?

[jimrtex]

i like the pates plan. It throws Marchant, Hensarling, and Poe under the bus and also returns the districts to their natural home (17th district is again based in Abilene, 1st is based in Texarkana, 25th in Houston, 11th in Waco-Temple Area)

It shows what political hacks the Democratic lawyers were in 2006 when they tried to disqualify Pate.  I sure hope the attorney fees weren't coming from personal funds of the Representative (other than Jackson Lee of course).

[krazen1211]

There are some House of Representative plans submitted by outsiders on the Texas Legislative Council website (See Districtviewer)

MALDEF thinks it's OK to draw a district from McAllen to not quite Austin, especially if you draw another district from San Antonio to Austin that prevents the first district from actually touching Travis County.

Sounds like MALDEF should go hike over to California and ask why there are so few Latino representatives there.

I'm happy to see this though. My 27-9 plan would have 8 hispanic districts; if 9 is a real sticking point (for some reason, Al Green's plurality hispanic district doesn't count..), its easy enough to dive TX-25 into San Antonio and throw all the Austin white liberals into TX-19.

[krazen1211]

Finally incorporated my bust-a-green move into the overall texas map.



Texas is a 67.5% McCain state after the 9 Democratic districts (and some small pieces of some neighboring Republican districts) are drawn. It's just a matter of arranging the Republicans; you probably want to keep Williamson, Mcclennan, and Bell County split apart; figure out how much you want to run Sessions into the rural areas, and you're good to go.



TX-23 is 59% VAP Hispanic and 53% McCain, TX-27 is 63% VAP Hispanic and 51% McCain, and TX-29 is 59% VAP Hispanic and 55% McCain, probably for Orlando Sanchez. Even TX-18 hits 45% VAP Hispanic.

[krazen1211]

Damn.

GRIT has drawn what they claim to be a 29-7 map. No new district in Dallas, Gonzales and Doggett are merged. Bexar county is shattered.

http://gritnewsletter.org/?p=72

[Mr.Phips]

Damn.

GRIT has drawn what they claim to be a 29-7 map. No new district in Dallas, Gonzales and Doggett are merged. Bexar county is shattered.

http://gritnewsletter.org/?p=72

That map will never get through the Justice Department. 

[Verily]

Damn.

GRIT has drawn what they claim to be a 29-7 map. No new district in Dallas, Gonzales and Doggett are merged. Bexar county is shattered.

http://gritnewsletter.org/?p=72

No surprise that it is possible. It is probably possible to go one further, maybe even two further. Does not mean it will meet VRA review; nothing less than a Hispanic district in Dallas (plus making a Hispanic district to "replace" Farenthold's) will do for that.

[krazen1211]

Damn.

GRIT has drawn what they claim to be a 29-7 map. No new district in Dallas, Gonzales and Doggett are merged. Bexar county is shattered.

http://gritnewsletter.org/?p=72

No surprise that it is possible. It is probably possible to go one further, maybe even two further. Does not mean it will meet VRA review; nothing less than a Hispanic district in Dallas (plus making a Hispanic district to "replace" Farenthold's) will do for that.

That map claims to have 19 majority minority seats. Probably more than the Democratic plans. I wonder what the demographic distributions are.

I doubt its wise, as a Democratic vote dump in DFW is very smart, but its quite interesting. As drawn there TX-30 probably becomes a majority Hispanic district.

Although, the Maldef plans also slice and dice Bexar, so I doubt they care about that.

[Verily]

Damn.

GRIT has drawn what they claim to be a 29-7 map. No new district in Dallas, Gonzales and Doggett are merged. Bexar county is shattered.

http://gritnewsletter.org/?p=72

No surprise that it is possible. It is probably possible to go one further, maybe even two further. Does not mean it will meet VRA review; nothing less than a Hispanic district in Dallas (plus making a Hispanic district to "replace" Farenthold's) will do for that.

That map claims to have 19 majority minority seats. Probably more than the Democratic plans. I wonder what the demographic distributions are.

I doubt its wise, as a Democratic vote dump in DFW is very smart, but its quite interesting. As drawn there TX-30 probably becomes a majority Hispanic district.

Although, the Maldef plans also slice and dice Bexar, so I doubt they care about that.

Minority-majority =/= VRA compliant. It must typically elect the preferred candidate of the protected minority group to comply. In theory, you could draw every single Texas district to be minority-majority; that map would certainly not meet VRA requirements.

In fact, beyond a certain point (around 12 minority seats) the more minority-majority districts they create, the less likely the map is to be VRA-compliant as the individual minority groups become more and more limited in their ability to elect their preferred candidates in each individual district.

[freepcrusher]

the supreme court should invent a term. A VRA district has to be one where hispanics make up a majority of REGISTERED VOTERS. In case a hack like krazen starts drawing the maps, it can stop them from enacting them.

[dpmapper]

How on earth are they claiming that their District 25 (Travis County - Austin) is a Republican district? 

[krazen1211]

the supreme court should invent a term. A VRA district has to be one where hispanics make up a majority of REGISTERED VOTERS. In case a hack like krazen starts drawing the maps, it can stop them from enacting them.

I don't know if that's true. Your own state has very few districts where hispanics make up a majority of REGISTERED VOTERS. Not sure why you're complaining about GRIT.

[krazen1211]

How on earth are they claiming that their District 25 (Travis County - Austin) is a Republican district? 

Pull up the 112 plan. The Dem districts are 16, 20, 9, 18, 27, 28, and 30, I think. 25 barely touches Travis.

[dpmapper]

How on earth are they claiming that their District 25 (Travis County - Austin) is a Republican district? 

Pull up the 112 plan. The Dem districts are 16, 20, 9, 18, 27, 28, and 30, I think. 25 barely touches Travis.

Aha.  They've got the wrong plan number listed on their blog post. 

[Dgov]

the supreme court should invent a term. A VRA district has to be one where hispanics make up a majority of REGISTERED VOTERS. In case a hack like krazen starts drawing the maps, it can stop them from enacting them.

No, it really wouldn't.  its not like these districts are R-leaning because most of the Hispanics aren't registered/don't vote ()though that helps), its because they vote 60-40 Democrat while the ~40% white voters vote 75-25 Republican.

[Dgov]

(plus making a Hispanic district to "replace" Farenthold's) will do for that.

Why?  Its not like they can't draw the 27th in a way that is still overwhelmingly Hispanic (like 67% VAP) that also voted for McCain.  You have to trade out Brownsville for the Harlingen area (which is way more Republican and only a little less Hispanic), and add in some of the Hispanic Republican counties more inland, but you can probably draw Farenthold a strong R District that's still easily VRA compliant.

[minionofmidas]

I think it is probably safe to say at this point that Texas will not use the same map through the decade.

[Verily]

(plus making a Hispanic district to "replace" Farenthold's) will do for that.

Why?  Its not like they can't draw the 27th in a way that is still overwhelmingly Hispanic (like 67% VAP) that also voted for McCain.  You have to trade out Brownsville for the Harlingen area (which is way more Republican and only a little less Hispanic), and add in some of the Hispanic Republican counties more inland, but you can probably draw Farenthold a strong R District that's still easily VRA compliant.

Because you need to have a district that routinely elects the Hispanic voters' preferred candidate. That may be a Republican, but it seems at least unlikely. It's pretty easy to draw one district containing the Hispanic parts of Corpus Christi then stretching down to all of Cameron County, then draw another district for Farenthold that contains the white parts of Corpus and Republican areas to the north.

[Sam Spade]

redistricting in Texas is always so much fun... 

[Brittain33]

Doggett found a proposed Republican map.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2011/04/28/a_proposed_redistricting_map_w.html

The long and short of it:

1. Doggett's district turned into a Travis-Bexar district, presumably Hispanic VRA.
2. Hispanic 33rd in Metroplex.
3. Corpus-based 35th and points north for Farenthold or someone else, his old district reverting to VRA.
4. 2nd district moves all the way into Harris County, and what used to be the 2nd in East Texas is now the 36th.
5. 34th district looks bizarre, linking Parker County to the Hill Country across the remains of Edwards' pre-Delaymander district. Presumably picking up leftover territory after the 21st and 31st districts shrink and expand into Travis.

[krazen1211]

Doggett found a proposed Republican map.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2011/04/28/a_proposed_redistricting_map_w.html

The long and short of it:

1. Doggett's district turned into a Travis-Bexar district, presumably Hispanic VRA.
2. Hispanic 33rd in Metroplex.
3. Corpus-based 35th and points north for Farenthold or someone else, his old district reverting to VRA.
4. 2nd district moves all the way into Harris County, and what used to be the 2nd in East Texas is now the 36th.
5. 34th district looks bizarre, linking Parker County to the Hill Country across the remains of Edwards' pre-Delaymander district. Presumably picking up leftover territory after the 21st and 31st districts shrink and expand into Travis.

You can't see the bottom of that map. It depends on how Hidalgo is split; 27 there is almost certainly a Dem district, but 15 might not be.

That 31st is really bad. Williamson and Bell need to be split.

[krazen1211]

No, it really wouldn't.  its not like these districts are R-leaning because most of the Hispanics aren't registered/don't vote ()though that helps), its because they vote 60-40 Democrat while the ~40% white voters vote 75-25 Republican.

In South Texas, if you chose the correct Hispanics, you could probably do even better than 60-40.

[rundontwalk]

Doggett found a proposed Republican map.

I wish there were some geographical consistency there. The 11th dirstict is going to run from the New Mexican border to almost the Fort Worth suburbs. Ugh.

[BigSkyBob]

Doggett found a proposed Republican map.

htp://ww.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2011/04/28/a_proposed_redistricting_map_w.html

The long and short of it:

1. Doggett's district turned into a Travis-Bexar district, presumably Hispanic VRA.
2. Hispanic 33rd in Metroplex.
3. Corpus-based 35th and points north for Farenthold or someone else, his old district reverting to VRA.
4. 2nd district moves all the way into Harris County, and what used to be the 2nd in East Texas is now the 36th.
5. 34th district looks bizarre, linking Parker County to the Hill Country across the remains of Edwards' pre-Delaymander district. Presumably picking up leftover territory after the 21st and 31st districts shrink and expand into Travis.

You can't see the bottom of that map. It depends on how Hidalgo is split; 27 there is almost certainly a Dem district, but 15 might not be.

That 31st is really bad. Williamson and Bell need to be split.

You seem to have answered my question. Apperently, it is the 15th that Pena is targeting. The other option was for him to inherit the 27th.