US House Redistricting: Texas

[freepcrusher]

This is Bexar County.

Pink District is District 20. This Remains a Central San Antonio district. This is a 71.8% Hispanic district and Obama probably got around 65 percent here. Safe DEM.

Dark Brown District is District 21. . This district removes a lot of German Hill country area and adds more precincts from CD 23 in Bexar County. This district has become more Bexar based then what it was in the 1990s when it took in San Angelo and stretched all the way out to Midland/Odessa. This district is 49.7% White, 36.1% Hispanic, 8.5% Black, 3.5% Asian, .3% Native American, and 1.9% Other. McCain probably got around 55-56% here. Lamar Smith is safe here considering his seniority.

Light blue District is District 23. This is pretty similar to the previous 23rd District. I’m surprised the Hispanic % is 77.7%. Of course Canseco is Hispanic and that helps. Obama probably won this district, but by less than 5 points. This is Canseco’s test to prove that 2010 wasn’t a fluke.

[freepcrusher]

This is Austin.

Light green district is District 27. Not to be confused with the old 27th district, this is similar to the old 25th District although it sheds a lot of rural areas to the east. Obama probably got around 65 percent here which is impressive considering that this is a 52.4% White district. This is a safe district for Doggett.

Purple district is District 17. This has nothing in common with the old 17th except that it keeps the Bryan/College Station area. It then takes in some rural territory from CD 10 as well as the Travis County portion of it. Michael McCaul and Bill Flores would face off in a primary here. This is a 53.7% White district. McCain probably got in the low to mid 50s here. Likely republican for the time being, although it may flip by the end of the decade.

[freepcrusher]

This is eastern Texas.

Dark blue district is District 1. This is centered around the eastern cities of Tyler, Longview, Marshall, and Texarkana. This is a 66.4% White District and McCain probably got in the mid to high 60s here. Louie Gohmert is the incumbent in this safe republican district.

Pink district is the 25th district. Not to be confused with the old 25th District, this district is now located in eastern Texas. Kind of reminds me of what Charlie Wilson’s district used to look like. Bill Clinton probably won this district, but McCain easily got over 60 percent here. State Rep. Wayne Christian may run here. This is a 66.3% White district.

[freepcrusher]

This is the southern and gulf coast part of the state.

The pink district is the 10th District. This district was formerly the 28th district and has been renamed. It is similar to the old 28th except that the northern (read Republican) areas around Seguin have been taken off. Obama probably got in the low 60s here. This district is 89.8% Hispanic. Henry Cuellar survived 2010 in a harder district, so he is safe.

The puke colored district is District 14. This district is similar to the old 14th except that it sheds the Fort Bend County area and veers north to take in some areas that used to be in CD 25. This is a 58% White district. McCain probably got in the low to mid 60s here. Ron Paul is safe here.

Orange District is District 15. Similar to the old 15th except that it sheds some of the cracker counties to the north. Obama probably got in the low to mid 60s here. In a 88.9% Hispanic district, Hinojosa is safe.

Lavender district on the southern coast is District 28. This is basically the old 27th District renamed the 28th. This is a 71.8% Hispanic district. Obama probably got in the low 50s here. This is a test for Blake Farenthold to prove that 2010 wasn’t a fluke.

Green District is District 34. This is a 57% White District that takes in some random areas from CD 21, CD 25, CD 15, and CD 28. McCain probably got in the low 60s here. Veteran State Rep. Harvey Hilderbran may run here.

[freepcrusher]

This is the southwestern tip of the state. The green district in the far left corner is District 16. Pretty much the same although it veers out to take in Pecos to get to the magical 698 as the precincts in eastern El Paso county have too many people. This is an 80.1% Hispanic district and Obama probably got around 65% Here. Safe Democratic district for Reyes.

[freepcrusher]

This is Central Texas.

Blue Greenish district is District 6. Smoky Joe loses the entire Tarrant portion of his district. This is a 67.4% White district and McCain probably got in the mid to high 60s here. Barton is even more safe in this district, and its not like he was vulnerable in his previous district either. This also squashes any possibility of a Chet Edwards comeback.

Tan District is District 31. Another Central Texas district with Williamson and Bell counties making up most of the population. Probably an R+14 district. John Carter is safe in this 64.7% White district.

[freepcrusher]

This is a statewide view. Some districts I missed:

11th District (Light Green). This is similar to the old 11th, only it sheds some areas to the west and adds in some areas from the 31st (that ironically was in the Chet Edwards 11th district before the delay gerrymander). This district is 58.8% White and McCain probably got in the low 70s here. This is a safe district for Conaway.

13th District (Tan). This is now a true panhandle district. This is similar to what the 18th district used to look like, before the district was moved to Houston in 1972. The district is surprisingly only 56.7% White, but don’t let that fool you. This is easily one of the most republican districts in the country and McCain probably got in the low to mid 70s here. Thornberry of course is safe here.

19th District (puke green). This is similar to the old 19th district, except that it takes in the western part of CD 11. This is a 58.4% White district. McCain probably got in the low 70s here. Neugebauer (Naw-guh-bower) is safe here.

35th District (purple). This is a “Red River” District. It also gets the price for the whitest district at 74.4% White. McCain probably got in the high 60s or low 70s here. State Senator Craig Estes may run here.

[krazen1211]

Here is the final Harris County product. Bust-a-gene-green.





These districts are exactly at population per the 2010 census. Removing the blacks and putting whites in TX-29 does wonders for the results. 60% VAP on the TX-29 here should be adequate as that is just about where it was at the start of the decade.

The current TX-18 actually holds a lot of Republican territory, and the current TX-9 holds some too. It's nice to pluck that out to pick up TX-29's worst precincts.

Final percentages:

TX-9: 79.8% Obama
TX-18: 82.8% Obama
TX-29: 55.8% McCain, 31.8% white, 60.0% hispanic

[freepcrusher]

Why are you so hell-bent on getting rid of Gene Green? He's a quiet guy and not someone to make loudmouthed comments like Alan Grayson. Plus, he represents a district that's nearly seventy percent hispanic. That map would see lawsuits by LULAC.

[krazen1211]

Why are you so hell-bent on getting rid of Gene Green? He's a quiet guy and not someone to make loudmouthed comments like Alan Grayson. Plus, he represents a district that's nearly seventy percent hispanic. That map would see lawsuits by LULAC.

Mostly because we can. LULAC can holler as much as they want; with any luck, the right Texas Hispanic Republican can at least move into TX-29 as an open seat.

[freepcrusher]

Greene is too entrenched. He has been in congress for 20 years and in an elected office for nearly 40 years. Doing that will only put him in a position similar to Jim Matheson.

[krazen1211]

Greene is too entrenched. He has been in congress for 20 years and in an elected office for nearly 40 years. Doing that will only put him in a position similar to Jim Matheson.

Quite possibly. Around 80-85% of that district is identical to the existing CD-29 (which of course is underpopulated and has to lose hispanic VAP regardless); the only significant change is in the northeast corner where the black dominated 70-85% precincts are chopped out, which all go into another Democratic district anyway.

Still, if Texas can vote out Ortiz, they can vote out Green.

[Sam Spade]

doubt it'll get by the DoJ, but the only real complaint against it from the community of interest perspective is not including the far western edge of East End and Denver Harbor.  And also dividing Jacinto City?

[Dgov]

Greene is too entrenched. He has been in congress for 20 years and in an elected office for nearly 40 years. Doing that will only put him in a position similar to Jim Matheson.

Quite possibly. Around 80-85% of that district is identical to the existing CD-29 (which of course is underpopulated and has to lose hispanic VAP regardless); the only significant change is in the northeast corner where the black dominated 70-85% precincts are chopped out, which all go into another Democratic district anyway.

Still, if Texas can vote out Ortiz, they can vote out Green.

Especially considering Ortiz was in a much safer district (Obama won ~53% there i think). Green will be toast if such a district survives a lawsuit (which is not a sure thing by any means)

Though you can draw a 67% Hispanic district that voted 53% McCain with a similar shape.  You just have to fine-tune the details of it and figure out a good McCain-vote:Hispanic ratio.  There are enough heavily McCain precincts on the outer edges of the district to flip the district--you just have to balance them with Heavily Hispanic districts in inner Houston with low turnouts and medium Obama margins.

[krazen1211]

Especially considering Ortiz was in a much safer district (Obama won ~53% there i think). Green will be toast if such a district survives a lawsuit (which is not a sure thing by any means)

Though you can draw a 67% Hispanic district that voted 53% McCain with a similar shape.  You just have to fine-tune the details of it and figure out a good McCain-vote:Hispanic ratio.  There are enough heavily McCain precincts on the outer edges of the district to flip the district--you just have to balance them with Heavily Hispanic districts in inner Houston with low turnouts and medium Obama margins.

Is that 67% VAP? My district is at 65% population and 60% VAP, and as a general rule of thumb, its a 1% to 1% tradeoff, so that makes sense.

These kinds of small changes also give hispanics a strong plurality in CD-9. I don't know of any cases where districts like this have been overturned in any lawsuit; if they could be, the original TX-29 last decade would have also had problems.

The heavy black areas were all in that central area that connected the 2 big hispanic populations. I'm not sure what town is up there or if its unincorporated.

[Dgov]

Especially considering Ortiz was in a much safer district (Obama won ~53% there i think). Green will be toast if such a district survives a lawsuit (which is not a sure thing by any means)

Though you can draw a 67% Hispanic district that voted 53% McCain with a similar shape.  You just have to fine-tune the details of it and figure out a good McCain-vote:Hispanic ratio.  There are enough heavily McCain precincts on the outer edges of the district to flip the district--you just have to balance them with Heavily Hispanic districts in inner Houston with low turnouts and medium Obama margins.

Is that 67% VAP? My district is at 65% population and 60% VAP, and as a general rule of thumb, its a 1% to 1% tradeoff, so that makes sense.

These kinds of small changes also give hispanics a strong plurality in CD-9. I don't know of any cases where districts like this have been overturned in any lawsuit; if they could be, the original TX-29 last decade would have also had problems.

The heavy black areas were all in that central area that connected the 2 big hispanic populations. I'm not sure what town is up there or if its unincorporated.

67% total Population, though since the current one is like 72% Total Hispanic and much less 10 years ago, it should be fine.

Also, have you tried connecting the two sections directly?  (Cutting through the 18th right at the neck).  That territory is maybe 63% Obama and you only need a few precincts to go through.  then the 18th just wraps around the top part of the 29th and comes back down, like a fishhook.

[freepcrusher]

slightly off topic, but didn't Gene Green draw himself into power? I believe he was a state senator in the early 90s, and drew a convoluted district for himself meandering through eastern Harris County in search of democratic precincts. I believe Eddie Bernice Johnson did the same thing. You can see a map of the district here:
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/jackbrooks

[jimrtex]

slightly off topic, but didn't Gene Green draw himself into power? I believe he was a state senator in the early 90s, and drew a convoluted district for himself meandering through eastern Harris County in search of democratic precincts. I believe Eddie Bernice Johnson did the same thing. You can see a map of the district here:
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/jackbrooks

He picked a lot of the precincts, picking up more in north Houston which were White transitioning to Hispanic, vs those in east Houston.  It also extended west to Spring Branch to include apartment complexes with Hispanic census counts, but who weren't so likely to be voting.  A lot of all the fingers were due to Houston not having zoning, so they had to search out for multi-family housing.  Because it went so far west, TX-18 had to wrap around the district to get from the 3rd Ward to Acres Homes and Houston Heights and then to the 5th Ward and Kashmere Gardens and Clinton Park and Pleasantville in the northeast.   TX-18 needed to include all the northern black areas, since the Democrats were trying to protect TX-25.  You will notice that TX-25 also wraps TX-29 to include areas north of the ship channel which you might have been put in a Hispanic district.  So unlike IL-4 which actually pretends to be picking up Hispanic voters in the loop to the west, the loop in TX-18 was trying to avoid voters.

The first primary in TX-29 was between Gene Green and Ben Reyes, which was extremely close and ended up in court because of cross-over voting between the primary and runoff.  In Texas, there is not a secret ballot if you vote illegally, so you can be called to testify if you have voted in primaries of two parties.  One old man said something to the effect, I'm 75 years old, I've had a good life, and done all the things I've wanted to do, so you might as well come and put the cuffs on, because I'm not going to tell you who I voted for.

Eventually, a new election was called.  And it was also discovered that the primary had not been run on the correct boundaries, with a few precincts excluded, and others erroneously excluded.  I have a fantasy that it was a Taiwanese graduate student trying to analyze the election results, and discovered they didn't actually match the census block-defined boundaries; or that both the Reyes and Green camps knew of this, and were holding off in case of an adverse court ruling.

Eddie Bernice Johnson testified that she had included her friends in uhh,,, her district.  This may have been so that she could grant scholarships to her friends children, so it was not as corrupt as it would appear.

[freepcrusher]

a lot of those white transitioning to Hispanic precincts north of Houston used to be in Jack Field's district I believe. Pretty much all the democratic precincts were excised out of the district and added areas like Montgomery County and College Station to the district. He got a pretty good deal. His old district was a district where where Bush got in the low to mid 50s in 1988. The new district he was given was a 73% Bush district. The newly drawn 29th was a 58% Dukakis District.

[jimrtex]

a lot of those white transitioning to Hispanic precincts north of Houston used to be in Jack Field's district I believe. Pretty much all the democratic precincts were excised out of the district and added areas like Montgomery County and College Station to the district. He got a pretty good deal. His old district was a district where where Bush got in the low to mid 50s in 1988. The new district he was given was a 73% Bush district. The newly drawn 29th was a 58% Dukakis District.

North Houston, not north of Houston.  The area starting at North Main, between the East Tex and North Freeways.

[Sam Spade]

and now for an amusing lawsuit...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7508489.html

[jimrtex]

and now for an amusing lawsuit...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7508489.html

It sounds similar to what happened in 1991.  After the legislature had passed its redistricting bills, they were challenged in a district court in Hidalgo County.  The State (Richards and Morales) conceded that the districts drawn by the legislature were illegal, and that a district court in McAllen should fashion a remedy.  It got moved into a federal court which ruled that the district court hadn't exercised due process, and drew its own plans.  Ann Richards then called a special session to redistrict again.  This was when she was comparing federal judges to infants in a high chair, and that redistricting was like hog butchering.  Most of the legislators were kept out of the process, and Texas ended up with different senate district boundaries in 1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, and 1998.  In Harris County, all the Democratic House districts ended up with 5% less population than the Republican districts.

[Bacon King]

and now for an amusing lawsuit...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7508489.html

From the link, it looks like the same type of lawsuit was successful after the 2000 census.

[jimrtex]

and now for an amusing lawsuit...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7508489.html

From the link, it looks like the same type of lawsuit was successful after the 2000 census.

Cameron and Hidalgo counties sued Donald Evans, the Secretary of Commerce (Census Bureau is part of Department of Commerce) to have statistically adjusted census figures released.  The district court dismissed all the juicy claims (equal protection, due process, regulatory procedure, and the Census Act), but did grant release of the figures under the Freedom of Information Act.

The case was appealed to the 5th Circuit but it appears that everything was eventually dismissed with the agreement of the litigants.

At issue then was the claim that the counties and cities would lose money from the US government that is distributed on a per capita basis.  I couldn't find anything whether any population counts or disbursements were actually adjusted.

The lawyer in the MALC case is the same lawyer as the 2000s cases.  I don't know why they don't sue Gary Locke, though since they are claiming that it was the Census Bureau decision to not use mail out.

[jimrtex]

There are some House of Representative plans submitted by outsiders on the Texas Legislative Council website (See Districtviewer)

MALDEF thinks it's OK to draw a district from McAllen to not quite Austin, especially if you draw another district from San Antonio to Austin that prevents the first district from actually touching Travis County.