KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Roll Roons]

@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

I maintain that it's very a risky bet, but I never said it couldn't ultimately pay off. I agree that the race would be a Tossup with Kobach, but a tossup means that he would also have a decent chance of winning, especially given that it's a federal race in a red state. But we'll see what happens.

What's the risk for Democrats? It's not like Marshall is some kind of Jacob Javits-like liberal Republican who will occasionally side with them and help them enact their agenda. He will be as much of a loyal foot soldier of Cocaine Mitch as Kobach.
And Kobach has the added bonus that if he is elected he will probably be an embarrassment and a thorn to the side of Republican leadership.   

Marshall's voting record will be reliably conservative, but he will just be another generic red state Republican who keeps his head down and spends three or four terms as a backbencher.

Kobach is outspoken and ambitious, and if he becomes a Senator, he will likely run for president. Being a Senator will largely cause people to forget about his loss in 2018. Imagine a 2024 GOP primary where Kris Kobach, Tucker Carlson and Don Jr. are all trying to out-Trump each other.

[Landslide Lyndon]

@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

I maintain that it's very a risky bet, but I never said it couldn't ultimately pay off. I agree that the race would be a Tossup with Kobach, but a tossup means that he would also have a decent chance of winning, especially given that it's a federal race in a red state. But we'll see what happens.

What's the risk for Democrats? It's not like Marshall is some kind of Jacob Javits-like liberal Republican who will occasionally side with them and help them enact their agenda. He will be as much of a loyal foot soldier of Cocaine Mitch as Kobach.
And Kobach has the added bonus that if he is elected he will probably be an embarrassment and a thorn to the side of Republican leadership.    

Marshall's voting record will be reliably conservative, but he will just be another generic red state Republican who keeps his head down and spends three or four terms as a backbencher.

Kobach is outspoken and ambitious, and if he becomes a Senator, he will likely run for president. Being a Senator will largely cause people to forget about his loss in 2018. Imagine a 2024 GOP primary where Kris Kobach, Tucker Carlson and Don Jr. are all trying to out-Trump each other.

Do you understand that you have just argued exactly why Democrats want Kobach?

[Lognog]

@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

I maintain that it's very a risky bet, but I never said it couldn't ultimately pay off. I agree that the race would be a Tossup with Kobach, but a tossup means that he would also have a decent chance of winning, especially given that it's a federal race in a red state. But we'll see what happens.

What's the risk for Democrats? It's not like Marshall is some kind of Jacob Javits-like liberal Republican who will occasionally side with them and help them enact their agenda. He will be as much of a loyal foot soldier of Cocaine Mitch as Kobach.
And Kobach has the added bonus that if he is elected he will probably be an embarrassment and a thorn to the side of Republican leadership.    

Marshall's voting record will be reliably conservative, but he will just be another generic red state Republican who keeps his head down and spends three or four terms as a backbencher.

Kobach is outspoken and ambitious, and if he becomes a Senator, he will likely run for president. Being a Senator will largely cause people to forget about his loss in 2018. Imagine a 2024 GOP primary where Kris Kobach, Tucker Carlson and Don Jr. are all trying to out-Trump each other.

Do you understand that you have just argued exactly why Democrats want Kobach?

Dear god I hope kobach is the republican nominee one day. That would make things really easy

[SnowLabrador]

@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

I maintain that it's very a risky bet, but I never said it couldn't ultimately pay off. I agree that the race would be a Tossup with Kobach, but a tossup means that he would also have a decent chance of winning, especially given that it's a federal race in a red state. But we'll see what happens.

What's the risk for Democrats? It's not like Marshall is some kind of Jacob Javits-like liberal Republican who will occasionally side with them and help them enact their agenda. He will be as much of a loyal foot soldier of Cocaine Mitch as Kobach.
And Kobach has the added bonus that if he is elected he will probably be an embarrassment and a thorn to the side of Republican leadership.    

Marshall's voting record will be reliably conservative, but he will just be another generic red state Republican who keeps his head down and spends three or four terms as a backbencher.

Kobach is outspoken and ambitious, and if he becomes a Senator, he will likely run for president. Being a Senator will largely cause people to forget about his loss in 2018. Imagine a 2024 GOP primary where Kris Kobach, Tucker Carlson and Don Jr. are all trying to out-Trump each other.

Do you understand that you have just argued exactly why Democrats want Kobach?

Dear god I hope kobach is the republican nominee one day. That would make things really easy

They said the same about Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

I maintain that it's very a risky bet, but I never said it couldn't ultimately pay off. I agree that the race would be a Tossup with Kobach, but a tossup means that he would also have a decent chance of winning, especially given that it's a federal race in a red state. But we'll see what happens.

What's the risk for Democrats? It's not like Marshall is some kind of Jacob Javits-like liberal Republican who will occasionally side with them and help them enact their agenda. He will be as much of a loyal foot soldier of Cocaine Mitch as Kobach.
And Kobach has the added bonus that if he is elected he will probably be an embarrassment and a thorn to the side of Republican leadership.    

Marshall's voting record will be reliably conservative, but he will just be another generic red state Republican who keeps his head down and spends three or four terms as a backbencher.

Kobach is outspoken and ambitious, and if he becomes a Senator, he will likely run for president. Being a Senator will largely cause people to forget about his loss in 2018. Imagine a 2024 GOP primary where Kris Kobach, Tucker Carlson and Don Jr. are all trying to out-Trump each other.

Do you understand that you have just argued exactly why Democrats want Kobach?

Dear god I hope kobach is the republican nominee one day. That would make things really easy

They said the same about Trump.

Kobach didnt get the Gov due to fact Oman 3rd party voting benefitted Gov Kelly, in 2016, 3rd party candidate Gary Johnson benefitted Trump and he won with 3 percent of vote from Hilary in WI, MI, Pa

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sunflower State has $2.8 million reserved until the primary, including this radio spot, which I'm not really a big fan of. I think it could do a lot better at promoting Kobach and trashing Marshall and Hamilton, but at least it's something.

[tmthforu94]

Senator Roberts has endorsed Roger Marshall as his preferred successor (no surprise).

https://twitter.com/Allie_Kite/status/1285665970548334592?s=20

[brucejoel99]

Senator Roberts has endorsed Roger Marshall as his preferred successor (no surprise).

https://twitter.com/Allie_Kite/status/1285665970548334592?s=20

Eh, KKKobach would obviously be the easier opponent, but we shouldn't count this seat out even if Marshall wins.

[Lognog]

Senator Roberts has endorsed Roger Marshall as his preferred successor (no surprise).

https://twitter.com/Allie_Kite/status/1285665970548334592?s=20

Eh, KKKobach would obviously be the easier opponent, but we shouldn't count this seat out even if Marshall wins.

Did this endorsement really matter, this guy almost lost in KS in 2014 as a Republican

[brucejoel99]

Senator Roberts has endorsed Roger Marshall as his preferred successor (no surprise).

https://twitter.com/Allie_Kite/status/1285665970548334592?s=20

Eh, KKKobach would obviously be the easier opponent, but we shouldn't count this seat out even if Marshall wins.

Did this endorsement really matter, this guy almost lost in KS in 2014 as a Republican

It could very well matter in terms of what happens in the Republican primary, yes.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Senator Roberts has endorsed Roger Marshall as his preferred successor (no surprise).

https://twitter.com/Allie_Kite/status/1285665970548334592?s=20

Eh, KKKobach would obviously be the easier opponent, but we shouldn't count this seat out even if Marshall wins.

Did this endorsement really matter, this guy almost lost in KS in 2014 as a Republican

It could very well matter in terms of what happens in the Republican primary, yes.

He almost lost his primary too in 2014 to a nutjob.

[Lognog]

Senator Roberts has endorsed Roger Marshall as his preferred successor (no surprise).

https://twitter.com/Allie_Kite/status/1285665970548334592?s=20

Eh, KKKobach would obviously be the easier opponent, but we shouldn't count this seat out even if Marshall wins.

Did this endorsement really matter, this guy almost lost in KS in 2014 as a Republican

It could very well matter in terms of what happens in the Republican primary, yes.

He almost lost his primary too in 2014 to a nutjob.

That cycle, the Republican establishment smothered so many other whack job primaries
(AL, KY, MS, TN)

to avoid another 2010 disaster (NV DE CO). If that race happened in 2010 he would have been done.

He strikes me as the type of establishment figure hamilton and Kobach would love to run against. I think anyone that cares about this endorsement was probably going to go for marshall anyways

[SnowLabrador]

Congratulations, Senator Marshall.

[WD]

Congratulations, Senator Marshall.

This race still isn’t a sure thing. Lean R at most.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1285703471287631872

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1285735650709381124

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1285735650709381124

Reminder that earlier in the cycle we had a report that the Senate leadership were pushing Trump and the White house to endorse Marshall. However, Trump didn't want to anger or go against his loyal voters who like Kobach, and didn't want to harm his relationship with Kobach personally.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Why are we acting like Pat Roberts’ endorsement matters? He about lost to Milton Wolf in 2014

[VAR]

Roger Marshall releases this ad in response to the Sunflower State PAC ad calling Kobach “too conservative”.

[Blair]

I can't think who the voter is who was going to vote for Kobach but changes because of Pat Roberts endorsement.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since there arent any KS or MA primary polls we have to guess, Marshall and Kennedy and Bollier pulls a McCaskill in 2012 and Bullock pulls a Tester of 2012 as well

It's not unlikely that Bollier can win, since KS voted D for Gov in 2002, 2006 and 2018 and almost did for Orman in 2014 for Senate

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1285936144706936833

[Pollster]

Excellent writeup on this race.

The Senate race in Kansas is a microcosm of the political woes facing Republicans these days. It features an ideologically extreme, Trumpian candidate; a party institutionally incapable of tending to its best interests; and a Democratic challenger trying to exploit the GOP’s utter collapse in the suburbs as she tries to become the first Democratic senator elected from the Sunflower State in nearly 90 years.

The primary, scheduled for Aug. 4, is the latest high-stakes test of whether Republican voters will cater to their base’s worst excesses or nominate a mainstream candidate capable of winning a solidly Republican state. What’s most remarkable about the contest is that the so-called GOP establishment, after raising warnings about former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, has been incapable of rallying behind an electable alternative.

[Storr]

Excellent writeup on this race.

The Senate race in Kansas is a microcosm of the political woes facing Republicans these days. It features an ideologically extreme, Trumpian candidate; a party institutionally incapable of tending to its best interests; and a Democratic challenger trying to exploit the GOP’s utter collapse in the suburbs as she tries to become the first Democratic senator elected from the Sunflower State in nearly 90 years.

The primary, scheduled for Aug. 4, is the latest high-stakes test of whether Republican voters will cater to their base’s worst excesses or nominate a mainstream candidate capable of winning a solidly Republican state. What’s most remarkable about the contest is that the so-called GOP establishment, after raising warnings about former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, has been incapable of rallying behind an electable alternative.

This stood out: "Given that slippage, Republicans expect the general election to be unusually competitive, regardless of the GOP nominee. But if Kobach emerges, Republicans fret the race would be close to a lost cause. With two weeks to go, it’s surprising there isn’t more GOP urgency to rally around their most electable candidate."

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sunflower State is up to $4.2 million