NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

When will we get any results?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Is there any projection of eventual margin?

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Nate Cohn 13m ago

Democrats may be poised for big disappointment in Virginia, but they do seem likely to hold on in New Jersey — even though the Republican leads at the moment. Virtually all the reported vote is from Republican areas.

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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455726048088399873
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455726362497540097

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Both Sweeney and Murphy look like they'll survive unless I'm missing something

and the fact that both are likely to scrape by is just... something.

i mean Murphy will still be the first Dem re-elected in a long time, so there were headwinds that I think a lot of us didn't even realize, locally in NJ, even aside from the national stuff

NJ'ians have not liked re-electing incumbent Dems lol

 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Why on earth would the counted votes on that sheet not be in the statewide totals? But yes, the words are incoherent, so who knows. Wildstein, you need to learn how to write before becoming a print reporter or whatever you are.

A most shocking result I must say. What on earth is going on? The Pub was invisible, generically cliched (the taxes are too high), soft on covid, and boring, while my impression was that Murphy was pleasant and competent. I wonder if our votes are counted yet. We put are VBM ballot envelops in a ballot drop box next to the Hoboken city hall 5 days ago. The at large council candidate slate that I like very much swept to victory.

Well its partially, as you note, a case of some of the most Blue votes across the state remaining uncounted at the moment. The final margin shouldn't be questionable, but it will be close - the 'bellwethers' point towards a +4/5 final result. Now why did it occur - well Biden has some very bad approvals, and the national environment is really bad for Dem's right now. Sometimes governor races can outrun defy their state's lean, but the baseline is still heavily dependent upon the national mood.

Real question is if numbers are so dependent on the national mood - Newsom Doing fine when Biden was doing Okay, now NJ/VA going bad when Biden approvals are bad - what the national mood will be in mid/late 2022.

Re:CA
- not even remotely close state - no point for (R) to vote
- Larry Elder
- D totally out-raised R

Even though, a 6 point swing from 2020 is a significant swing, which many non-red avatars tried to highlight.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

10-15 points swing from 2020. Not bad, not bad.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

To be sure, there is no exit polls in NJ? I'd love to see Biden's approval etc.

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https://twitter.com/dontcurvemeplz/status/1455968148189065231
lol

REAL AMERICA!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So both VA and NJ will have same margin of ~2.5%?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So both VA and NJ will have same margin of ~2.5%?

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1456443197899612160?s=20

Trafalgar had
Youngkin +2.3%
Murphy +4.2%

Incredible.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/johnsb01/status/1458495149445689355