Germany megathread

[Oryxslayer]

What’s behind the recent AFD rise to ~20% nationally? I can understand a rise to say 15%, but what’s caused them to battle for 2nd place? Is there an issue they have the sole popular stance on or have their signature issues became a lot more salient?

I guess the bad economy and the CDU being too centrist.

First yes, second no - the CDU are acting like an opposition on most issues. And their significant lead over the SPD for over a year shows this. The AfD just basically have uncontested control over the minority of voters that are pro-Russia since Linke are in turmoil, so they are pulling from everyone's voter pools if said voters care about their single issue's salience.

[oldtimer]

What’s behind the recent AFD rise to ~20% nationally? I can understand a rise to say 15%, but what’s caused them to battle for 2nd place? Is there an issue they have the sole popular stance on or have their signature issues became a lot more salient?

I guess the bad economy and the CDU being too centrist.

First yes, second no - the CDU are acting like an opposition on most issues. And their significant lead over the SPD for over a year shows this. The AfD just basically have uncontested control over the minority of voters that are pro-Russia since Linke are in turmoil, so they are pulling from everyone's voter pools if said voters care about their single issue's salience.

When I see that the SPD, Green, FDP are all down and the CDU is not budging an inch:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_German_federal_election

Then the obvious answer is: disappointed ex-government voters go to the AFD, as they think the CDU is not opposing enough.

We have seen that many times, smaller more dynamic opposition parties eating the dinner of the weak feeble main opposition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What’s behind the recent AFD rise to ~20% nationally? I can understand a rise to say 15%, but what’s caused them to battle for 2nd place? Is there an issue they have the sole popular stance on or have their signature issues became a lot more salient?

Everyone in Germany seems to have a different opinion on that, which usually amounts to the right blaming the left and vice versa.

My personal assessment is that it is - for the most part - a belated reaction to Ukraine and the subsequent inflation and energy crisis. Everything held together reasonably well in that regard as long as the traffic light coalition had managed to maintain a front of unity.

After the FDP failed to pass the 5% threshold in the Berlin state election in February the party quickly started to publicly question and attack previously agreed upon legislative projects though, most notably the heating law reform that it is important to the Greens. This led to an steady increase in intra-coalition infighting which most people were quickly fed up with.

It didn't help that certain right-wing media (Axel Springer) came to the support of the FDP in attacking the Greens. It didn't help either that some attempts to communicate and justify legislative projects by Green economics minister Robert Habeck failed to pass the bar of what would have been necessary in that situation.

Then the AfD started to climb in the polls. Instead of everyone attacking the AfD, CDU/FDP started to blame the Greens and the Greens started to blame CDU/FDP for the AfD's rise.

TL;DR... We're in a situation of (inter)national crisis(es). The major democratic parties in the country are mostly busy fighting each other, even the ones who are nominally part of the same governing coalition. Naturally, right-wing extremists are thriving.

[palandio]

What’s behind the recent AFD rise to ~20% nationally? I can understand a rise to say 15%, but what’s caused them to battle for 2nd place? Is there an issue they have the sole popular stance on or have their signature issues became a lot more salient?

In hindsight the 2010s were a relatively prosperous decade for Germany, more prosperous than for most other European countries. Recently Germany's economic development has been weak, prices are rising and incomes are not keeping up. There is a growing sentiment of crisis, and the problem is that the crisis is increasingly seen as permanent and not as a temporary shock.

In the old times the left (in a broad sense) by definition was anti-establishment and wanted to achieve progress against the conservative ancien régime. In order to accomplish its materialistic and post-materialistic agenda the left became a part of the state or at least started to identify with it more and more. (That does not mean that the state and establishment have been completely taken over by the left, far from it.)

An increasing segment of voters is feeling economically insecure and sees the left's agenda not as a solution but as a threat to their own wealth. The heating bill is an example for this and when its proponents started to address the concerns it was already quite late.

Of course there are also people in politics and media that don't like the left and particularly the Greens. But that's not new and the Greens' reaction strikes me as a bit naive. For the last decade the Greens have been enjoying the positive reception from Green-friendly and opportunistic journalists, until on time before most major elections certain right-wing influencers/journalists managed to deal a blow to the Greens. Opportunistic journalists followed and so did the easily impressable soft-Green swing voters.

The CDU/CSU which has been in government for 16 out of the last 18 years is seen as jointly responsible for the perceived mess we're in. And it doesn't know itself were it stands with respect to many hotly debated issues.

I agree with Old Europe's post on a lot, but I think that when certain fundamental indicators are bad and remain bad (i.e. a seemingly permanent loss of purchasing power) people will only have limited patience and after some time there will be discontent. The question is whether the discontent can be addressed within the established political spectrum (preferably by the government itself). My impression is that existing political problems and resulting insecurities should be dealt with within this spectrum. I think that a vast majority of voters would prefer this too over the AfD's reactionary and in part fascist politics.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Last week I also read about a recent study that many Germans feel overwhelmed and exhausted by crisises like climate change, Ukraine, inflation, migration (the article didn't mention the pandemic although it goes without saying that it should be factored in as well IMO). The reaction described by the study is one of a decoupling of private life and the public/political sphere.

While Germans say that the are happy with their own lives, they also show strong dissatisfaction with the political elite whom they assign to an inability to solve any of the aforementioned problems. In concurrence with that, usage of news media has been in decline. In simple terms, news are regarded as having become too depressing and are therefore blocked from one's consciousness and perception. According to the study, people are only shaken from that apathy when they feel like they are personally affected, like with inflation or energy prices.

Other than that, they increasingly focus on their own private lives which apparently includes seeking friendships with people they happen to agree with. Just like the increasingly depressing, overwhelming news cycles are ignored, people don't want to hear opinions that shake the bubble they have created as their personal safe spaces. They don't want to be informed, they don't want to debate, they don't want to be politically active.  They just want to be left alone.

I guess all these factors also help create a climate in which right-wing extremists thrive... along with declining voter turnout, I suppose.

I'd call it the era of the Great Fatigue.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Of course there are also people in politics and media that don't like the left and particularly the Greens. But that's not new and the Greens' reaction strikes me as a bit naive. For the last decade the Greens have been enjoying the positive reception from Green-friendly and opportunistic journalists, until on time before most major elections certain right-wing influencers/journalists managed to deal a blow to the Greens. Opportunistic journalists followed and so did the easily impressable soft-Green swing voters.

I certainly can tell you that pretty much everyone in the Greens is aware of that problem, and has been for at least ten years.

What's the problem though? I guess the lack of a certain "ruthlessness". These are boyscouts, not Lee Atwaters. Green party events are a wonderful place to be because of all the wonderful, highly empathetic people. They're just not equipped to deal with people who are not quite as nice. Maybe Joschka Fischer was, but then again  Fischer used to beat up police officers.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

New high for AFD.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New high for AFD.

European Parliament though.

The Bundestag election poll from the same pollster and day had CDU/CSU at 26.5% (an increase by 0.5) and AfD at 21.5% (a drop by 0.5) respectively. AfD traditionally has also the best results in INSA polls.

[Sir Mohamed]

I know the next election isn't happening till fall 2025 and a lot of things can change, but is it already fair to say the 2021 election was just a fluke? Scholz was kind of seen as natural successor to Merkel, but his approvals are atrocious. Much worse than Biden's.

[palandio]

Last week I also read about a recent study that many Germans feel overwhelmed and exhausted by crisises like climate change, Ukraine, inflation, migration (the article didn't mention the pandemic although it goes without saying that it should be factored in as well IMO). The reaction described by the study is one of a decoupling of private life and the public/political sphere.

While Germans say that the are happy with their own lives, they also show strong dissatisfaction with the political elite whom they assign to an inability to solve any of the aforementioned problems. In concurrence with that, usage of news media has been in decline. In simple terms, news are regarded as having become too depressing and are therefore blocked from one's consciousness and perception. According to the study, people are only shaken from that apathy when they feel like they are personally affected, like with inflation or energy prices.

Other than that, they increasingly focus on their own private lives which apparently includes seeking friendships with people they happen to agree with. Just like the increasingly depressing, overwhelming news cycles are ignored, people don't want to hear opinions that shake the bubble they have created as their personal safe spaces. They don't want to be informed, they don't want to debate, they don't want to be politically active.  They just want to be left alone.

I guess all these factors also help create a climate in which right-wing extremists thrive... along with declining voter turnout, I suppose.

I'd call it the era of the Great Fatigue.

I agree that the pandemic played a role and not only by being another crisis. It contributed a great deal both to the retreat into the private sphere and to people creating their own opinion bubbles.

One hypothesis that I personally have is that already after the fall of the Wall many Eastern Germans experienced a multi-faceted crisis with effects very similar to the ones you described above. And that for people that have lost the belief in the positive side of society and government a far-right party is a logical choice.

Of course there are also people in politics and media that don't like the left and particularly the Greens. But that's not new and the Greens' reaction strikes me as a bit naive. For the last decade the Greens have been enjoying the positive reception from Green-friendly and opportunistic journalists, until on time before most major elections certain right-wing influencers/journalists managed to deal a blow to the Greens. Opportunistic journalists followed and so did the easily impressable soft-Green swing voters.

I certainly can tell you that pretty much everyone in the Greens is aware of that problem, and has been for at least ten years.

What's the problem though? I guess the lack of a certain "ruthlessness". These are boyscouts, not Lee Atwaters. Green party events are a wonderful place to be because of all the wonderful, highly empathetic people. They're just not equipped to deal with people who are not quite as nice. Maybe Joschka Fischer was, but then again  Fischer used to beat up police officers.

That seems to me a description of the Greens through rose-colored glasses. I think that what distinguishes many Greens from e.g. many modern-day conservatives is their amount of political idealism. It seems to me that many can't grasp how others could be so mean to them, when they're on the side of the just cause.

As a side note: I like that although we might hold different degrees of sympathy for e.g. the Greens, we can still find enough common ground and talk about the same reality from different perspectives.

[Middle-aged Europe]

That seems to me a description of the Greens through rose-colored glasses.

For the most part it was a description based on having worked for them and having been a member of them for almost 15 years. Seemed to be an accurate enough description, for better or worse, of top-level people I've come to know over the years (mostly for the better, except for the kind of situations I have alluded to... for instance, I think I have sufficient understanding why they're sh**t at negotiating with the FDP, because they're incapable of playing hardball).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Last week I also read about a recent study that many Germans feel overwhelmed and exhausted by crisises like climate change, Ukraine, inflation, migration (the article didn't mention the pandemic although it goes without saying that it should be factored in as well IMO). The reaction described by the study is one of a decoupling of private life and the public/political sphere.

While Germans say that the are happy with their own lives, they also show strong dissatisfaction with the political elite whom they assign to an inability to solve any of the aforementioned problems. In concurrence with that, usage of news media has been in decline. In simple terms, news are regarded as having become too depressing and are therefore blocked from one's consciousness and perception. According to the study, people are only shaken from that apathy when they feel like they are personally affected, like with inflation or energy prices.

Other than that, they increasingly focus on their own private lives which apparently includes seeking friendships with people they happen to agree with. Just like the increasingly depressing, overwhelming news cycles are ignored, people don't want to hear opinions that shake the bubble they have created as their personal safe spaces. They don't want to be informed, they don't want to debate, they don't want to be politically active.  They just want to be left alone.

I guess all these factors also help create a climate in which right-wing extremists thrive... along with declining voter turnout, I suppose.

I'd call it the era of the Great Fatigue.

To further underline that point, sick days for mental health reasons in Germany have increased in the first half of 2023 by 85% compared to the first half of 2022 and they have more than doubled compared to the first half of 2021. Mostly for depression.

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/verbraucher/krankenkasse-psychische-belastungen-100.html

Everybody's depressed because society has gone to hell... or the other way around, who knows.

It certainly mirrors my personal feelings. While I had my great burnout in the summer of 2022 (on sick leave from July through November, yeah) and not this year, the feeling is there that everybody tried to pull through the winter lockdowns of 2020/21, but afterwards nobody had any energy left or stopped giving a sh**t about anything.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Anyway, Russian spy arrested at Germany's military acquisition department. Semi-frequent occurence these days.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/germany-arrests-citizen-accused-spy-russia-102135018

[Middle-aged Europe]

Major Taiwanese semiconductor company TSMC will build its first chip plant in Europe, in the German city of Dresden.

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwans-tsmc-to-build-semiconductor-factory-in-germany/a-66469463

Some have criticized the projected amount of at least five billion Euros the German government plans to spend on subsidizing the project, but I guess part of the reasoning is "better Taiwan than China".

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to a new poll, 73% believe that Olaf Scholz is *not* capable of asserting himself on relevant political issues, 21% believe that he does.

Aside from leadership skills, the same poll also asked about Scholz' communication behavior. 72% say that he gives less less concrete answers than other politicians, 19% think that he doesn't.

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/olaf-scholz-politbarometer-extra-sommerinterview-bundeskanzler-100.html

[President Johnson]

According to a new poll, 73% believe that Olaf Scholz is *not* capable of asserting himself on relevant political issues, 21% believe that he does.

Aside from leadership skills, the same poll also asked about Scholz' communication behavior. 72% say that he gives less less concrete answers than other politicians, 19% think that he doesn't.

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/olaf-scholz-politbarometer-extra-sommerinterview-bundeskanzler-100.html

Sadly, I mostly agree, although I personally believe Scholz is a pretty skillful politician behind the scenes who's more interested in getting practicable things done rather than grandstanding. However, he should be far more out in public and set a more decisive tone. He's also too cautious on Ukraine in my view. Putin only respects strength.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1690785647634632704


While I think the AFD is horrible, stuff like this is completely horrible and is extremely undemocratic as well. The reason the AFD has risen is Germany has not had an actual right of center party for a while and if the CDU acted like an actual right of center party then the AFD would not be doing anywhere near as well.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1690785647634632704


While I think the AFD is horrible, stuff like this is completely horrible and is extremely undemocratic as well. The reason the AFD has risen is Germany has not had an actual right of center party for a while and if the CDU acted like an actual right of center party then the AFD would not be doing anywhere near as well.

Most of the German parties are moderate heroes.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its not exactly the most reliable source is it.

In this case, "considers" almost certainly means that one person has vaguely hinted something.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1690785647634632704


While I think the AFD is horrible, stuff like this is completely horrible and is extremely undemocratic as well. The reason the AFD has risen is Germany has not had an actual right of center party for a while and if the CDU acted like an actual right of center party then the AFD would not be doing anywhere near as well.

I doubt it will ever happen. Party bans are solely decided by the constitutional court (German Supreme Court), which aready threw out two requests to ban the far-right NPD. The only two parties that over got outlawed were in the 1950s, one Nazi Party and the Communist Party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1690785647634632704


While I think the AFD is horrible, stuff like this is completely horrible and is extremely undemocratic as well. The reason the AFD has risen is Germany has not had an actual right of center party for a while and if the CDU acted like an actual right of center party then the AFD would not be doing anywhere near as well.

What President Johnson said.

Political parties can only be banned by the Consitutional Court and even then it is a process that literally can take years. The last two times someone attempted to get the even more extreme NPD banned, the Court refused to do so. So it's mainly an academic debate anyway.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, foreign minister Annalena Baerbock attempted to visit Australia and New Zealand, but she didn't make it.

She's still healthy and all, but the plane croaked on her in Abi Dhabi. Two attempts to take off again failed, and the state visit had to be scratched entirely. The air force also decomissioned the plane now.

Quite symbolic for the overall state of the government, I guess.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1690785647634632704


While I think the AFD is horrible, stuff like this is completely horrible and is extremely undemocratic as well. The reason the AFD has risen is Germany has not had an actual right of center party for a while and if the CDU acted like an actual right of center party then the AFD would not be doing anywhere near as well.

I doubt it will ever happen. Party bans are solely decided by the constitutional court (German Supreme Court), which aready threw out two requests to ban the far-right NPD. The only two parties that over got outlawed were in the 1950s, one Nazi Party and the Communist Party.

And the latter was quite obviously a product of the early Cold War (and was ultimately reversed)

[President Johnson]

So, foreign minister Annalena Baerbock attempted to visit Australia and New Zealand, but she didn't make it.

She's still healthy and all, but the plane croaked on her in Abi Dhabi. Two attempts to take off again failed, and the state visit had to be scratched entirely. The air force also decomissioned the plane now.

Quite symbolic for the overall state of the government, I guess.

What more can be said about this other than how pathetic that is? Especially since these problems have existed for years. Even Merkel had to deal with similar situations before.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The federal cabinet has passed a draft law for the legalization of recreational cannabis.

Here are the details:

The main provisions in the draft law on the planned legalization of cannabis in Germany include the following points:

• Possession of up to 25 grams of cannabis is not punishable in Germany.
• Each adult may grow up to three cannabis plants at home for their own consumption.
• Cannabis can also be cultivated in so-called cultivation associations with official permission . These may have a maximum of 500 members, who should each receive a maximum of 25 grams of cannabis per day or 50 grams per month.
• Cannabis may only be passed on in the form of marijuana or hashish.
• There is an advertising and sponsorship ban for consumption cannabis and for the cultivation of cannabis.
• Authorities control the quality and quantities of cannabis.
  
• Preventive measures and advice are to be taken over by the Federal Center for Health Education (BZgA) and by the cultivation associations in cooperation with local addiction advice centers.

The draft also states that the prohibition policy has failed in connection with cannabis - current developments show that consumption is increasing, especially among young people. According to the draft, the law will be reviewed after four years and adjusted if necessary.