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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Post Random Maps Here 2.0. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post Random Maps Here 2.0.  (Read 209945 times)
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,791
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
« on: January 19, 2018, 05:07:26 PM »

Here are three outcomes of the 2020 presidential election with three different Democratic Nominees, the first one is with Bernie Sanders.
2020 Presidential Election

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Bernie Sanders: 278 Electoral Votes (50% of PV)
Donald Trump: 260 Electoral Votes (49% of PV)

As you can see I believe Sanders can narrowly beat Trump by flipping the three Rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin with higher Nonwhite and youth turnout, along with increased support in Rural WWC areas. Trump will make gains in Wealthy, White, suburbs, throughout the sun belt and will thus improve his margins in Florida, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, and Arizona, along with coming closer in Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada, and losing California by 20 points instead of 30. This will have the effect of making him improve in the popular vote (losing it by one instead of two points), while losing the electoral college. The next map is with Cory Booker.
2020 Presidential Election

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Donald Trump: 290 Electoral Votes (48% of PV)
Cory Booker: 248 Electoral Votes (51% of PV)

As you can see, Booker would flip Michigan and hold all the Hillary States due to high turnout from Nonwhites and young voters, However due to his Race he'd fail to make up any ground in Rural WWC areas would doom him in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while Trump would still narrowly win Florida due to his unwavering support from the high-turnout elderly White population their. Finally, Booker would lose the electoral college with an even bigger popular vote victory then Hillary (three points instead of two) due to him maintaining the support of many Educated White suburbanites along with higher Nonwhite and youth turnout (due to these factors he'd carry California by around a 30 point margin). The last map I'd for Warren.
2020 Presidential Election

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Donald Trump: 328 Electoral Votes (50% of PV)
Elizabeth Warren: 210 Electoral Votes (48% of PV)

As much as I hate to say this, it's pretty obvious Elizabeth Warren is the weakest of these three potential Nominees, because though she would excite the Democratic base of Nonwhites and Young people, her Gender would turn of even more WWCs, which would cause her to lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin by even larger margins and cause her to lose Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nevada. Meanwhile, her Left-wing economic views would turn of Wealth White Suburbanites, which would cause her to barely win Virginia and Colorado (Nonwhites and Young people would save her in those two states), win California by 20 points instead of 30, and lose Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida by larger margins then Hillary. Overall these National shifts would cause Trump to win the popular vote by two points, along with winning 328 Electoral votes from 34 states.



I agree with you regarding Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (though I feel that they would have an edge in Arizona), ni also feel that Cory Booker would have a good chance to pick up Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Still, my gut feeling is that a Kamala Harris/John Bel Edwards ticket would be the best choice for the Democrats in 2020. I think that such a ticket would hold all of he Clinton 2016 states and also pick up Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and maybe even Louisiana and win the popular vote by about 5%.
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