NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[KaiserDave]

I'm of the mind that baseless speculation on Yang being on the spectrum is baseless and speculative.

We're very much used to stage managed politicians. Remember that.

Sure, and that’s why I tried to word my post to be strictly speculative while also saying that it shouldn’t diminish his chances in any way, but I don’t think I’ve ever met an adult who acts quite like Andrew Yang. Maybe he is just goofy and awkward.

You may be right

[KaiserDave]

We've gotten a lot more data so this needs a major overhaul


Frontrunners
Scott Stringer, Eric Adams, Andrew Yang
Competitors
Maya Wiley, Ray McGuire
Periphery of Competition
Diane Morales, Kathryn Garcia
Stragglers
Loree Sutton, Carlos Menchaca, Shaun Donovan
Bottom Feeders
Eddie Cullen, Aaron Foldenauer, Quanda Francis, Max Kaplan, Art Chang, Joycelyn Taylor, Zach Iscol


These new numbers tell us a few things (provided they are somewhat accurate)

1. Yang's entrance has thrown everything into chaos for Stringer and Adams, who expected a two man primary between them, and who both depended on casual name recognition Democrats.
2. Donovan doesn't have the steam (so far) I thought he did. I like him (so far) but he gets a big demotion.
3. Kathryn Garcia woot! Someone who might be my first choice, doing surprisingly well!
4. Diane Morales is the standard bearer of the DSA left and she's carved out a nice niche for herself
5. Yang is ahead, nobody cares about his twitter gaffes (shouldn't be a surprise)

[KaiserDave]

Like KaiserDave, I really wish that Shaun Donovan could be taken more seriously. If that's not in the cards, though, then I'm all in on YangGang2021.

I also like Kathryn Garcia and I still like Stringer but yeah agreed

[KaiserDave]

https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-yes-andrew-yang-is-a-real-new-yorker-20210122-geqzxyxqq5dw5gohptbk55eewy-story.html

This over emphasis on Yang's "New York-ness" is going to backfire

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/c_sommerfeldt/status/1355290095801290755?s=21

So how badly may that harm his campaign?

Unless something bad comes out in spite of these agreements, this will mean nothing.

[KaiserDave]

The NYCGOP is not relevant in this election, it's only a question of who they chose to get 25% to 30%

[KaiserDave]

The NYCGOP is not relevant in this election, it's only a question of who they chose to get 25% to 30%

I wouldnt say that. Republicans have won before in NYC. Michael Bloomberg and Rudy Guliani were Republicans.

That was over a decade ago and isn't really relevant to the current election.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.gothamgazette.com/city/10131-conflict-differentiation-democratic-mayoral-candidates-debate-brooklyn

Interesting semi debate recap

I'm liking Garcia and Donavan, still internally divided on Yang.

[KaiserDave]

Yang will be the next Mayor.

That's my prediction and I am sticking with it.

It's possible, but RCV makes a Yang victory much less likely than if the old system was still in effect.

Yang could probably have gotten to the old-style runoff just on name rec alone. But RCV means people who don't like Yang/don't think he's experienced enough can coordinate in a way that would probably prevent him from getting 50% plus 1

This is a relatively small constituency.

You're just flat out wrong

[KaiserDave]

Yang will be the next Mayor.

That's my prediction and I am sticking with it.

It's possible, but RCV makes a Yang victory much less likely than if the old system was still in effect.

Yang could probably have gotten to the old-style runoff just on name rec alone. But RCV means people who don't like Yang/don't think he's experienced enough can coordinate in a way that would probably prevent him from getting 50% plus 1

This is a relatively small constituency.

You're just flat out wrong

Yang is a chill dude, he has massive crossover appeal.

Based on what, exactly?

I'm telling you as a New Yorker active in political circles that there is a very large segment of average voters and people of relevance that dislike Yang.

[KaiserDave]

Yang will be the next Mayor.

That's my prediction and I am sticking with it.

It's possible, but RCV makes a Yang victory much less likely than if the old system was still in effect.

Yang could probably have gotten to the old-style runoff just on name rec alone. But RCV means people who don't like Yang/don't think he's experienced enough can coordinate in a way that would probably prevent him from getting 50% plus 1

This is a relatively small constituency.

You're just flat out wrong

Yang is a chill dude, he has massive crossover appeal.

Based on what, exactly?

I'm telling you as a New Yorker active in political circles that there is a very large segment of average voters and people of relevance that dislike Yang.

Those people sound like losers and dweebs. You should look for other circles.

You should look for other websites

[KaiserDave]

I'm not much of a Yang fan at all, but anyone who thinks there's some huge groundswell out there of people who actively dislike Yang (beyond people who would dislike any Democrat) spends way too much time online imo.  

Among a tiny sliver of extremely high-information voters / NYC politics junkies, sure-- among the general population, I don't think the evidence is there for any such phenomenon.

I always said the Twitter Yang hate was meaningless, but I'm telling you from real life interactions, there is a substantial amount of Yang skepticism in the general electorate.

[KaiserDave]

I did not know that Eric Adams wants to abolish summer vacation

[KaiserDave]

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2021/02/17/a-freer-de-blasio-convenes-labor-leaders-for-private-meeting-on-mayors-race-1364097

Very interesting article on Mayor de Blasio's preferences. TL:DR

Adams: Likes, particularly his "story"
Stringer: Has beef with him but would be okay if he won
Wiley: Likes but doesn't think she can win
Yang: Skeptical that he's ahead, not sure about him
Bloomberg-like candidates (McGuire/Yang?): Very opposed to, wants a pro labor not pro business mayor

[KaiserDave]

1. My view of Andrew has been declining  somewhat over the course of this campaign, And my priorities for the election has shifted so my view of him has declined as a candidate as well, But my god this is really dumb

2. Cuomo is a really horrible governor and a terrible person


3. Maya Wiley has a small chance but not a a big competitor

4. Updated chart coming

[KaiserDave]

We've gotten a lot more data and big endorsements so this needs a major overhaul


Frontrunners
Scott Stringer, Eric Adams, Andrew Yang
Competitors
Maya Wiley, Ray McGuire
Periphery of Competition
Diane Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan
Stragglers
Loree Sutton, Carlos Menchaca
Bottom Feeders
Eddie Cullen, Aaron Foldenauer, Quanda Francis, Max Kaplan, Art Chang, Joycelyn Taylor, Zach Iscol


It's actually not that different from the last chart. I just brought Donovan up a bit, it was unfair to make him a straggler when he's got great connections, solid fundraising, and when more recent polls have him stronger than before.

[KaiserDave]

Yang has done nothing to ingratiate himself with me, I used to have a high opinion of his potential candidacy but since running he has reduced that view.

Right now I like Kathryn Garcia, Scott Stringer, and Shaun Donovan. All liberal competent managers, which is what I'm looking for right now. I'm attending a young voters forum soon, where I am trying to ask four questions.

1. What will you do to reduce the sales tax?
2. What will you do to raise taxes on the ultra rich?
3. What will you do to support NYC small businesses?
4. What will you do to stand up to Governor Cuomo's bullying?

[KaiserDave]

Insane thread here
https://twitter.com/danarubinstein/status/1364695297209810947
NYPD's budget is $11 bil, nearly 90% of which is salaries & pensions — cutting it by 30% without reducing police numbers is mathematically impossible (and, frankly, a 30% cut to cops is going to cause a crime spike that will drive more residents & businesses into the suburbs, exacerbating the budget problem).

But, naturally, that stood as the craziest thing said at this forum for only about fifteen minutes, because Eric Adams had this to say:
https://twitter.com/danarubinstein/status/1364698595237261317
400:1 student-teacher ratio, Khan Academy replacing regular school for everyone. KaiserDave is probably right about the three most normal candidates.

I was gonna go to this forum, but I had errands to run. Do you have footage of the entire thing? I wonder if my questions got in (the same four as before).

But yeah, Morales just strikes me as well intentioned, but one of those lefties devoid of the actual grit of policy, and whose inexperience is a flaw.

Eric Adam is terrible, and this answer confirms it. Anyone who wants to continue remote learning forever has zero credibility.

Donovan, Garcia, and Stringer strike me as the only candidates who can actually lead a massive city.

[KaiserDave]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/540769-yang-intervenes-after-man-threatened-with-metal-pole-on-staten-island


https://www.radio.com/1010wins/news/local/new-yorkers-unite-against-anti-asian-violence-at-nyc-rally

Today Yang stopped an attack on the Ferry and attended an Anti Hate Crime Rally. He's so going to win.

:/

[KaiserDave]

Good. Party machines are undemocratic and corrupt.

[KaiserDave]

The only endorsement I Care about is the DSA.

They're probably gonna endorse Morales, with an outside chance of Stringer? I'm not sure.

[KaiserDave]

The only endorsement I Care about is the DSA.

They're probably gonna endorse Morales, with an outside chance of Stringer? I'm not sure.

I suppose Menchaca is considered too much of a no-hoper. He's the only one that's 100% in their wheelhouse.

Morales is in their wheelhouse too I think, but yeah Menchaca is a no hoper.

[KaiserDave]

I bet they'll give a list of 3-5 candidates and tell people to rank them at the top of their list. It prevents the DSA from throwing down a hard commitment on any imperfect candidate, it absolves them of any responsibility, and it shows they are committed to electoral reform.

Absolutely not — this is not how DSA electoral strategy works. They want endorsements to mean something in terms of volunteers and cash flowing in, so that the pol really owes their election to DSA and will owe them something once in office. Qualified, tepid citywide endorsements of multiple candidates that "absolves them of any responsibility" is the exact opposite of that strategy. At that point, the endorsement is basically meaningless, so why do it at all?

Because your activists, and there are a lot of them in the gentrifying east side of the Hudson, demand that you don't leave the Progressive mayoral candidates out to dry even though they are getting electorally squeezed. As previously noted the more important races for NYC Progressives right now are for city council, but endorsing in a lower race and ignoring candidates like Morales because of poor polling seems designed to confuse a lot of the limited voter pool.

Do you think Morales is doing better than polls suggest?

[KaiserDave]

Morales probably is more on board with DSA priorities far more than anybody running however. Probably more so than Menchaca too.

[KaiserDave]

Let's shine some light on the Republican primary. While the winner here will be doomed to getting 30% on a good night in November, it's still somewhat interesting.

There are three major candidates

Fernando Mateo is a Dominican American entrepreneur running on a pro immigrant, anti Cuomo, pro landlord, moderate urban Republicanism of the Bush and Clinton years. He is known for advocating for taxi drivers and bodega owners. He has been endorsed by the Manhattan, Bronx, and Queens GOP. On Trump, he's going for the weaselly "great policies, bad personality" path. He voted for Trump twice. Here are some links are him.

https://nypost.com/2021/02/26/manhattan-gop-endorses-fernando-mateo-for-nyc-mayor/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UA5mNex4So


Curtis Silwa is an anti crime vigilante and radio host. He is running on the pro police, anti crime cultural conservatism very common in South Brooklyn and Staten Island. He has been endorsed by the (comparatively more conservative) Staten Island and Brooklyn GOP. He's spent a lot of time bashing de Blasio and the big spending plans of the Democrats running. He is not running as a pro Trump candidate. Here are some links.

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2021/02/27/nyc-elections-2021-whos-running-curtis-sliwa-on-the-issues-public-safety-crime-bill-de-blasio-donald-trump-rudy-giuliani

https://www.gothamgazette.com/city/10117-decision-nyc-curtis-sliwa-runs-nyc-mayor-2021

Sara Tirschwell, CFO of Foundation House is running on Rockefeller Republicanism of yesteryear, but has no real shot at the nomination.

John Catsimatidis, GOP megadonor and grocery store King who basically controls most of the NYCGOP waits in the wings, still pondering a run. So far it looks unlikely, but if he does run he will win the nomination easily. Silwa has already pledged to drop out and endorse him if John pulls the trigger.


Naturally I would support none of them and none of them have any chance of winning, no matter who the Democrats nominate. If the Democrats nominate someone I don't like, I'll probably write in.