NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[KaiserDave]

C from 538

I'm SHOCKED. SHOCKED by this poll. The foxes are running the hen house, cats are chasing dogs, the rain is going UP! NYC political heavyweights Eric Adams and Scott Stringer are playing second fiddle to a shockingly successful but nevertheless 3rd tier Presidential candidate. This poll could be garbage, but even if it's 10 points off, Yang is here to stay if he runs (barring a sudden collapse or terrible campaign).

It's choice of candidates is odd (no McGuire, Quinn is a LOL), but still...wow. Probably just name recognition though.

[KaiserDave]

Apparently Christine Quinn actually is pondering a run, which is a massive LOL.

The consensus is is that the race should be a two man race between Adams and Stringer, but this could all change if Yang runs, or if Donovan, Rose, or McGuire gain traction.

I think the relevant candidates at this point are Donovan, Adams, McGuire, and Stringer. Rose and Yang jumping in would also change things. I think everyone else (maybe Menchaca becomes relevant) at this point is irrelevant.

[KaiserDave]

There are efforts to stop RCV from being implemented from parts of the Council and via lawsuit. If it is stopped from being implemented, that could make a big difference in how this primary plays out.

I didn't know that...wow. Bad news for mid tier candidates trying to get a leg up.

[KaiserDave]

There are efforts to stop RCV from being implemented from parts of the Council and via lawsuit. If it is stopped from being implemented, that could make a big difference in how this primary plays out.

I didn't know that...wow. Bad news for mid tier candidates trying to get a leg up.

Yeah, I find it all absolutely ridiculous. The city voted on RCV and over 70% supported it (albeit on very low turnout)! Very anti-democratic impulse on the part of the Council opposition.

Indeed.

[KaiserDave]

Let's update the chart shall we


Frontrunners
Scott Stringer, Eric Adams, Shaun Donovan
Competitors
Maya Wiley, Max Rose, Andrew Yang, Ray McGuire
Stragglers
Diane Morales, Loree Sutton, Carlos Menchaca, Kathryn Garcia, Christine Quinn
Bottom Feeders
Eddie Cullen, Aaron Foldenauer, Quanda Francis, Max Kaplan, Julia Qing Reaves, Joycelyn Taylor


As always, potential but undeclared candidates are italicized

[KaiserDave]

Let's update the chart shall we


Frontrunners
Scott Stringer, Eric Adams, Shaun Donovan
Competitors
Maya Wiley, Max Rose, Andrew Yang, Ray McGuire
Stragglers
Diane Morales, Loree Sutton, Carlos Menchaca, Kathryn Garcia, Christine Quinn
Bottom Feeders
Eddie Cullen, Aaron Foldenauer, Quanda Francis, Max Kaplan, Julia Qing Reaves, Joycelyn Taylor


As always, potential but undeclared candidates are italicized

Yang and Rose running would certainly make this race far more entertaining than it'd be without them.

I somehow (embarrassingly) missed completely the 2017 race, I'll pay more attention this time around.

The 2017 race was a total bore so I don’t blame you

[KaiserDave]

Stringer increasingly feels like the far and away frontrunner, but Yang's entrance, McGuire's money, or an AOC endorsement can still shake up this race.

Adams is charismatic, but his past is gonna be shook and brought out.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/andrew-yang-files-paperwork-to-run-for-new-york-city-mayor/2797754/

Yang in. I'll be watching his campaign closely. I've cooled on him, but I'm interested to see what he does. Definitely could rank him highly.

[KaiserDave]

Very odd of him to jump in and jump out.

Well, changes nothing

[KaiserDave]

Very odd of him to jump in and jump out.

Well, changes nothing

Maybe he thinks redistricting gives him a route back to congress?

From what I hear he doesn't want to go back.

[KaiserDave]

Just saying most liberal NY primary voters, which is to say most of them, are probably fine with Yang campaigning in Georgia.

Definitely an interesting interview, and worth reading. I'm exciting about Yang's ambitious anti-poverty agenda, and throwing MLK III into the mix is interesting. However Yang really needs a better response to the residency question.

[KaiserDave]

Copying and pasting some thoughts I wrote out on Twitter cuz I don't feel like rephrasing it for here.

This guy is so hard to pin down. On the one hand, he does talk about issues that are important and even forward-thinking, but he seems to do so without command of the topic or any grasp of how legislation works. I remember during his Presidential campaign, it seemed like almost every issue he talked about related back to UBI. As if he did not have a complex understanding of how poverty or systemic injustice works other than “the absence of money.” The Times piece in the OP refers to him as a “neophyte” and even that feels too charitable. He’s more like a layman. A lot of the things he espouses are rooted in the abstract of what *could* be done as opposed to what *can* be done. And not in a “this idea is pie-in-the-sky” kind of way, more like “well if I think this is a good idea, it must be a good idea” He doesn’t understand legislation, he doesn’t understand government, he doesn’t understand governing. He admits that he’s never voted for mayor because he has “taken city government for granted.” How can you run for President while not having an appreciation for local politics? It seems like it’s a lot more vain than altruistic. It’s like he wants the credit for being the genius who figured out that poverty is bad. He doesn’t want to govern, he wants to be a movie star. It always rubbed me the wrong way that he would run for Pres w/o govt experience. After we elected Donald Trump, who ran for POTUS for the personal glory without understanding how government or legislating works, YOU’RE the guy who should succeed him? Someone who has virtually the same resume as Trump? That takes a lot of ambition. And not in a good way. I’ve always been skeptical of Yang and this article further proves that he may not really understand politics or issues outside of a very elementary grasp of things. It’s like he’s arrived at the correct answer without doing the work. It’s very technocratic.

I agree with much of what you've said, but this is very unfair to Yang. Their both private sector outsiders, but that's where the similarities end.

[KaiserDave]

I agree with much of what you've said, but this is very unfair to Yang. Their both private sector outsiders, but that's where the similarities end.

No government experience? Running using their business experience as both a platform and an appeal to authority? That was my point--if you're running to succeed a disastrously inexperienced President whose inexperience played directly into his failures, you better have a real argument to back that up. Yang was no closer to being prepared for the office of the Presidency in 2020 (or the office of Mayor of NYC in 2021 for that matter) than Donald Trump was in 2016.

Trump is a billionaire who made his money through an array of disastrous and racially discriminatory real estate enterprises. Yang is barely a millionaire who ran an education start up.

I didn't support Yang for President, ever, or at all, but he and Trump are not that similar.

[KaiserDave]

Damn that video was good

If his campaign continues like that I'll rank him highly

[KaiserDave]

"Yang is vowing to launch what his team said would be the largest program of its kind nationally — a proposal to give 500,000 New Yorkers living in poverty between $2,000 and $5,000 per year. It’s not yet clear exactly how the money would be generated; his 2-page plan indicated he would spend $1 billion each year from the roughly $90 billion city budget, while relying on grants from philanthropic groups."

This is what I'd hope he'd do

Very good

So far I'm still eh on his candidacy but I'm warming to it.

[KaiserDave]

Definitely update time


Frontrunners
Scott Stringer, Eric Adams, Andrew Yang
Competitors
Maya Wiley, Ray McGuire, Shaun Donovan, Diane Morales
Stragglers
Loree Sutton, Carlos Menchaca, Kathryn Garcia, Christine Quinn
Bottom Feeders
Eddie Cullen, Aaron Foldenauer, Quanda Francis, Max Kaplan, Art Chang, Joycelyn Taylor

[KaiserDave]

Definitely update time


Frontrunners
Scott Stringer, Eric Adams, Andrew Yang
Competitors
Maya Wiley, Max Rose, Ray McGuire, Shaun Donovan
Stragglers
Diane Morales, Loree Sutton, Carlos Menchaca, Kathryn Garcia, Christine Quinn
Bottom Feeders
Eddie Cullen, Aaron Foldenauer, Quanda Francis, Max Kaplan, Julia Qing Reaves, Art Chang, Joycelyn Taylor

I thought Rose was out.

oops, edited

[KaiserDave]

So far I like Yang, Stringer, and I'm looking into Garcia and Donovan. I thought I'd like Adams but it's hard to see past his record (check Wikipedia). Morales is positioning herself as the most left wing candidate, she has my sympathies and I agree with her on some things, but I don't think she can run the city, nor is a left wing ideologue necessarily what we need.

[KaiserDave]

Surprised nobody mentioned this. Reflects the fact that no Republican can win in NYC these days, even when they try to imitate bloomberg and do the "I'm different" appeal.

https://twitter.com/erinmdurkin/status/1349832915211976707?s=19

That is....very funny. Thanks for sharing.

Wow the NYCGOP really is dead then. However Catsimatidis, who remains an avid Trump supporter, would do abysmally in a Democratic primary. 5% ceiling.

[KaiserDave]

Yikes

[KaiserDave]

Maybe it's because I don't live in NYC, but I don't see a problem here? What's wrong with this video?

I personally don't care, but that's a really high class bodega to the point where you can barely call it one. Also he follows it up with a "haha I love New York" tweet which is a bit cringeworthy. Then there's how he grabs all the bananas awkwardly.

Nobody is going to care about this tweet though. This is just pure meaningless twitter outrage. But Yang has a problem about being seen as out of touch with the city.

[KaiserDave]

Maybe it's because I don't live in NYC, but I don't see a problem here? What's wrong with this video?

I personally don't care, but that's a really high class bodega to the point where you can barely call it one. Also he follows it up with a "haha I love New York" tweet which is a bit cringeworthy. Then there's how he grabs all the bananas awkwardly.

Nobody is going to care about this tweet though. This is just pure meaningless twitter outrage. But Yang has a problem about being seen as out of touch with the city.

It’s silly but it feeds into a negative image people already had of him.

Yeah but I maintain that the actual electorate doesn't care about twitter foibles.

[KaiserDave]

That's not a bodega, that's just a store.

It's missing the elderly uncle of the proprietor sitting in the corner on a milk crate watching the Real Madrid - Barca game on TV, the random collection of soap for sale in the other corner that looks like it hasn't been touched since the 90s, and in 2020, the half of the patrons wearing their masks incorrectly and the other half not wearing one at all, oh and the crackhead buying cigarettes and lighting up his first one right there at the counter.

And the cat

[KaiserDave]

I- I just... Andrew, Andy, buddy: stop shooting yourself in the foot!

My words of advice have evidently not been taken:

https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1349900608992632832

This isn’t that bad
The NYPD has appointed officers as commissioner before

[KaiserDave]

I'm of the mind that baseless speculation on Yang being on the spectrum is baseless and speculative.

We're very much used to stage managed politicians. Remember that.