Note that this district's black population is about 30%. With Obama as the nominee, black voters could make up even more of the electorate.
Bobby Bright is a solid candidate. Meanwhile, the GOP field leaves something to be desired. I think Sen. Harri Ann Smith has an advantage for the GOP because she has a base in the wiregrass portion of the district whereas the other candidates are from the Montgomery region.
Against Harri Ann Smith, Bright would probably be able to combine strong Montgomery-area support with black votes and a decent showing in Wiregrass to win.
I would describe the district as lean GOP and possibly only a slight lean at this point.
Please, I can guarentee you that Harri Ann Smith will be a member of the 111th Congress.
