2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9836d218-548c-4db3-8950-06d8813ebefe
Here's my take on a potential Democratic gerrymander of Pennsylvania, though it's unlikely they'll be able to seize all the levers of power. Clinton won 10 of these districts in 2016, and one of the districts she lost was Cartwright's.

Notable Points (moving from west to east) (2016 numbers from the NYT article on PA's new districts):
- Conor Lamb's district, formerly Trump +3, is now Clinton +2.9 after taking in some parts of Pittsburg proper. The Pittsburg-based 14th district (regaining it's pre-2017 number) does get more competitive, but it's still Clinton +20. Lamb, who we already know has significant crossover appeal, should easily be able to hold the new 17th into the 2030s.
- Mike Kelly's district shifts from Trump +20 to Trump +25. This district is bound to shift right in any reasonable scenario and is pretty much gone for Dems.
- Cartwright's new district stretches from State College to Scranton and is actually only Trump +3.3, a major shift in favor of the Democrats. It'll probably flip during a GOP wave in the latter half of the 2020's though.
- The 10th is gerrymandered to be a Harrisburg-York-Lancaster district, and is Clinton +3.2, a 12-point shift leftward. Lancaster is trending left, so Democrats should be competitive here for a while. Tossup district.
- The 6th district, now Clinton +5.1, is the main weakness of this map (4 points more Republican). It does take in all of Reading and Coatesville, and loses the swingier southern half of Chester to the 5th district, but also gains a little too much conservative territory outside of and west of Reading. It's possible to shore it up at the expense of the 4th district, though, if the 6th is seen by party leadership as too much of a flight risk.
- The 5th district becomes less compact and more conservative (It's a Clinton +17.4 district, about a 11-point shift right) but it's still Safe D. Yawn.
- The 4th district is basically the same (It's Clinton +18.5, about the same as its predecessor) and takes up pretty much the same areas. Now that I consider it more, moving the 6th to about a Clinton +7-8 district (and thus moving the 4th to a Clinton +15-16 district) is a good idea - just trade parts of rural Berks for parts of suburban Philly.
- The Allentown-based 7th district also doesn't change much, picking up the population-equality mandated territories in Monroe County as well as taking a small slice of Berks. It moves from Clinton +1 to Clinton +2.4 though, so Susan Wild should remain viable here for a while.
- The 1st district grabs parts of Philadelphia County, but it's still just Clinton +3.4 (a one-point improvement over the old 1st). Fitzy should be fine here, but the extra liberal tidbits might just tip the scale in a Democratic wave election. Frankly, not much else the Dems can do here without endangering the 4th district.
- Not much to say about the inner Philly districts. The 2nd gets a little whiter, but the 3rd is still majority-black, so it should be alright by the VRA.

Taken all together, this is a 5-6-6 map (though Democrats can shore up the 17th and 6th districts with the 14th and 4th districts). In a 2022 Trump midterm, Democrats have a good shot at an 11-6 majority, but Cartwright and Wild's seats will increasingly come into danger as time progresses. Over time, this could settle into a 10-7 or 9-8 map (after Cartwright retires), but if the Republicans make significant progress here it could morph into a 7-10 map quickly.

If Democrats aren't feeling confident, they could move Lancaster into the 6th, sacrificing the 10th for peace of mind. That said, I think the rest of the districts in this map are pretty ideal for Dems.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c172e644-d6e8-443e-be96-a9febbb2b260
Here's a fairer, incumbent protection map that could satisfy both parties. It's a 6-4-7 map that becomes 6-3-8 once Cartwright goes down. 
GOP Positives:
- The 1st district is safe for them now - it moves into Central PA to become Trump +22. I think Fitzy gets drawn out though, but there's enough of Bucks County in the district for him to move back in it. The same is true for the Erie County-based 16th - it moves about 3 points to the right.
- There's a lot of ripening fruit for them across the state. Matt Cartwright is clearly going the way of Petersen (his new district moves right to Trump +11.1, a marginal rightward shift), and the GOP could probably pick him off in the next wave midterm. Also, I believe Dan Meuser gets drawn into here because he lives in Luzerene County, so the GOP will have a credible challenger here. Conor Lamb's 17th is a plausible pickup if he retires or runs for higher office, and as the decade progresses Susan Wild's 7th will become more and more winnable for them. By 2028 or 2030, a 11-6 divide is possible for them if all goes well.
- Incumbent geography works out kind of well for them. If Meuser runs in the 8th, the primary problems are avoided, as each remaining representative has their own district. Guy Reschenthaler gets moved to the new 13th (he technically isn't in the district but he isn't in the current 14th either), Glenn Thompson could move across the county line into the 15th (or there could be a small gerrymander to move Oil City back into the district), John Joyce could move south into the 9th (or Altoona could be moved into the 9th), and Fred Keller should be able to keep his district. Avoiding these primary battles is a big win for the PA GOP.

Dem Positives:
- The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th districts are all solidly Democratic now (all voted for Clinton by over 60%). Also, the 6th district moves from Clinton +9 to Clinton +14.
- Susan Wild's district moves marginally to the left (Clinton +1 to Clinton +4) by shedding some conservative rurals ringing Allentown for parts of swingy Bucks County. I'm not entirely sure if this district could hold, though, so exchanging more of Bucks for some rural areas is possible at the expense of compactness (though these 1st and 7th districts are admittedly not compact to start - another possible edit is to move the eastern parts of Bucks from the 1st to the 4th),
- The Harrisburg-based 10th trades York for Lancaster and stays on the edge of competitiveness (Trump +7.4, a leftward shift). The trends are favorable enough here for a Democrat to have a chance in a wave year (or if a Democrat wins here in 2020, they will have a chance to hold on).
- Conor Lamb's district changes orientation but keeps a Trump +2.2 partisanship, so he should probably hold on here until he chases higher office. There might be problems once he leaves, though.
- The Pittsburg district is still safe.

Overall, this map likely results in a Democratic majority for the first half of the decade before continued GOP trends bring the 8th out of reach and endanger the 7th and 17th. There's stuff in here that satisfies both parties, so despite the Bucks County split it's not all that gruesome or implausible.

[OBD]

You can't split Bucks County!

Oh, really?

Yikes...

[OBD]

What the hell. Get that sh!t out of here.

[OBD]

Decent map. Nuke the Bucks split though.

[OBD]

Torie, are there 17 districts in that map or 18?

Oh F**K! No matter the map was so easy to draw! I used the existing map and just redrew. Sad! 

Yes see the issue is a pub seat has to be cut but the dems have to take all those icky pub voters.

Yeah, I see the BS about splitting Pittsburgh, as if a split of 100,000 is the same as a split of 1,000 (if 4 justices buy that, I am sending them to hack hell, which is already way overpopulated with state high court judges), and Harrisburg will need to get more Pub.

Look at the previous page. It seems they will keep Pittsburgh whole but instead attach a lot of icky pub voters to it like all of Westmoreland county.

I would use the Utah logic here. Every district should have a nice blend of urban and rural voters, which is why the city of Pittsburgh should be placed with Washington or Westmoreland counties. The resulting Allegheny County seat is only a fair result from this logic.

[OBD]

RIP Wild (and Cartwright), but at least Houlahan is saved and we still have a shot at the Lamb seat long term.