Predict the Polls II

[Shira]

I was scrolling through my old posts this morning and I stumbled on one from late May in which I had predicted the opinion polls up until November. I had done well actually, giving Kerry a 'bounce' from mid-july through to late August. The 'early September' prediction had both candidates tied at 47% and for fun, my late September prediction had Kerry 49% Bush 47%. So I thought i'd do it again!

Week ending.    Kerry  Bush  Others/Undecided
5 Sep                  44      48      8
12 Sep                45      49      6
19 Sep                46      47      7
26 Sep                48      48      4
3 Oct                   48      46      6
10 Oct                 49      47      4
17 Oct                 50      48      2
25 Oct                 49      49      2
31 Oct                 47      46      7

Why the number of Others is growing in the end of October?

[Shira]

Week ending.    Kerry  Bush  Others/Undecided
5 Sep                  45      50      5
12 Sep                45      50      5
19 Sep                46      49      5
26 Sep                47      47      7
3 Oct                   48      46      7
10 Oct                 43      53      4
17 Oct                 44      52      4
25 Oct                 46      50      4
31 Oct                 47      50      3

The sharp transition from 10/3 to 10/10 does not make sense