Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, Larry Sabato has also moved this from Toss-Up to Lean D.

Looks like Virginia politics will break history's record and a elect a governor from the same party as the president. This is important as the new face of Virginia could potentially represent a state that now has a decent democratic advantage in modern election politics. This is a shift that must be watched in the next few years.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cuccinelli will win this race in the end.

I just do NOT see the traditional trend since 1977 ending anytime soon.

Looks like it will, dude. I'm sorry but there's no denial here, Virginia is clearly changing its political future, even if its not evident in this election due to bad candidates, it will clearly be evident in future elections. With that being said though, this state is still a toss-up in generic elections.

[ElectionsGuy]

Larry Sabato makes the interesting point on twitter that the government shutdown could claim its first electoral victim in Cuccinelli:

@LarrySabato 40m
1st election victim of a long #shutdown will prob be an R: Ken Cuccinelli (VA GOV). Ds needed turnout spur in NoVa--now they've got it.

@LarrySabato 38m
Estimates are half of all inner NoVa extended families have at least 1 fed govt employee, now unpaid & angry. NoVa heavily D anyway.

Republicans have commited electoral suicide here. First with Cuccinelli and the McDonnell scandal, now this, especially in Virginia, only helps the democrats.

[ElectionsGuy]

Has Virginia become NJ?

No, but it could be if it continues like this. What were seeing here is the Shutdown affect, the Tea Party, and McDonnell's scandal all coming in at once to form a anti-republican storm. This is more of a once-in-a-while/unusual election rather than a traditional normal precedent election.

[ElectionsGuy]

T-Mac's campaign reporting heavy turnout in black precincts and other Dem strongholds in Arlington and Richmond

dominating.

Probably means EW Jackson wins. Blacks usually vote for black candidates, no matter if they are democrat or republican.

False. Blacks vote for candidates with (D)'s next to their name.