Texas in 2020

[Nyvin]

2020 is probably too early for Texas to flip, but I'd expect it to be closer than it was in 2016.

[Nyvin]

Why do people think Texas will turn blue or even be competitive by 2020? There is no indication of this at all. It won't even just "lean r". It will be R guys.

It's became less R in an election that featured a man that spouted xenophobia and religious intolerance in his campaign and Texas is a stereotypical state for such things. That's a bad sign.

Hillary picked up 2% more of the population. That doesn't say much. It didn't become less Republican. The moderates simply refused to vote for him. He actually got more supporters in TX. The only change is that Hillary did marginally better and GJ did as well.

Dude, Trump got 52% and Romney got 57%.   It's trended hard D, you can't deny that.

[Nyvin]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

They are competitive, while Texas is not.

Texas is growing (and changing) fast.   Rhode Island and Connecticut are not.   

Texas will absolutely trend faster than RI and CT.

[Nyvin]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

They are competitive, while Texas is not.

Texas is growing (and changing) fast.   Rhode Island and Connecticut are not.   

Texas will absolutely trend faster than RI and CT.

Like I said, the demographic shift will be some-what reversed once Trump is in office. 

The wall, faster and higher rate of deportations and overall less immigration ETC.

High Hopes.

The exact same trend that makes the Republicans more appealing in the Rust Belt is driving Texas away.   They're literally polar opposites. 

[Nyvin]

If we're talking about Texas flipping, we might as well talk about Rhode Island and Connecticut being competitive.

They are competitive, while Texas is not.

Texas is growing (and changing) fast.   Rhode Island and Connecticut are not.   

Texas will absolutely trend faster than RI and CT.

Like I said, the demographic shift will be some-what reversed once Trump is in office. 

The wall, faster and higher rate of deportations and overall less immigration ETC.

High Hopes.

The exact same trend that makes the Republicans more appealing in the Rust Belt is driving Texas away.   They're literally polar opposites. 

If you dont think that Immigration Laws and higher border security aren't going to happen in a Trump Presidency / Republican Congress I've got bad news for you. And no the only way Texas goes Democrat is in the 2030's when it becomes majority "Hispanic". Conservationism among Whites and some "white" Hispanics is still high in the state. 

A huge chunk of the Texas economy is trade with Mexico.   Being anti-immigrant isn't going to be as helpful in Texas as you think.   Also, yeah, rising hispanic population too.

I doubt it will flip in 2020 (like I said) but 2024 is certainly in the realm of possibilities.