MA: Kimball Political Consulting: Brown slightly ahead, despite Warren bounce

[sg0508]

Scott has to keep creeping up the upper 40s and then I like his chance to avoid that last minute democratic "come home" effect and survive.

[sg0508]

Brown's problem in the race besides the "democrats coming home" effect is that in the end, undecided voters usually swing towards the challenger, even if the challenger ran a poor campaign.  Thus, a 47-44% Brown lead with 8-9% undecided in the final week could easily turn into a 51-49% loss.

He MUST be polling (in my opinion) at least 48% in the final week.

Just out of curiosity, I'm not sure if there is any other 3rd party candidate running, but if there is, even 1% to that candidate could make the difference