Mexican Elections 2017-18

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

With 43% of the vote in, Del Mazo (PRI) has surpassed Gómez (Morena) with 31.97% to 31.94%. Looks like the old guard is gaining an edge, folks.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

70% of the Edomex vote is in, looks like the PRI is holding onto the governorship. Coahuila looks extremely close as well.

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)  88% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  34.41%
MORENA              32.04%
PRD                     18.55%
PAN                     11.69%
PRI rebel                2.21%
PT                         1.10% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

Looks like PRI will most likely pull this out.  The quick count, despite what AMLO said, was pretty accurate.

[jaichind]

Coahuila results (non-null) 73% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     38.34%
PAN                         37.04%
MORENA                  12.35%
PRI rebel                   7.82%
PRD                          1.69%
PT                            1.52%  (dropped out to support MORENA)

Very close but it seems that PRI will pull this one out as well.

[jaichind]

Nayarit results (non-null) around 57% counted

PAN-PRD-PT          40.34%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  28.41%
PRI rebel               11.88%
MORENA               11.59%
MC                         4.88%

PRI actually doing a bit better than what the pre-election polls indicated although PAN-PRD won as expected.

[jaichind]

Veracruz results so far (212 out of 212 cities reporting) - vote share non-null and 98% of the vote counted (this is pretty much it for PREP for now)

                 Vote share       Leading
PAN-PRD       33.62%        112
PRI-PVEM      18.59%          37
PRI                 2.29%            3
PVEM              2.02%           4
MORENA       17.82%         16
PANAL            7.01%         18
MC                 7.12%           8
PT                  4.95%           4
PES                3.05%           5
Ind                3.51%            3

In the Governor race last year in 2016 in it was (in non-null votes)

PAN-PRD               35.42%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   31.43%
MORENA               27.02%

And in 2016 Assembly elections PRI-PVEM-PANAL actually won a small plurality in the legislative vote over PAN-PRD even as its vote was split. 

It seems MORENA vote has dissipated somewhat as well as PRI-PVEM since 2016 while PAN-PRD has mostly held on to their vote share.  As a result PAN-PRD is the most powerful force in Veracruz.

Back in 2006 it was (non-null)

PRD-PR-MC (AMLO)        36.44%
PAN                               35.39%
PRI-PVEM                      25.58%

So PAN-PRD is already performing near what PAN achieved in 2006 when PRI collapsed.  This bodes well for PAN-PRD in 2018 Prez elections if the PAN-PRD alliance can hold together. 

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)  90% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  34.48%
MORENA              32.02%
PRD                     18.53%
PAN                     11.66%
PRI rebel                2.21%
PT                         1.10% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PRI leading growing slowly, it seems PRI's got this.

[jaichind]

Nayarit results (non-null) around 64% counted

PAN-PRD-PT          40.23%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  28.50%
PRI rebel               12.03%
MORENA               11.57%
MC                         4.80%

PRI gaining ground on PAN-PRD slowly.

[jaichind]

Coahuila results (non-null) 75% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     38.57%
PAN                         37.48%
MORENA                  12.31%
PRI rebel                   7.77%
PRD                          1.68%
PT                            1.52%  (dropped out to support MORENA)

Both PRI and PAN gaining ground.  All things equal PRI should have the edge here.

[jaichind]

MXN up 1.7% since Friday versus down 0.7% right before the quick count for Edomex came out.

[jaichind]

PRI, against all expectations, actually did reasonably well in this election pulling out likely narrow victories in Edomex and Coahuila.  Not sure it it wise for the market to price in such a surge in MXN.  This sort of result implies a close 3 way race between PRI-PVEM, PAN-PRD and MORENA next year in the 2018 Prez elections.  This is the only scenario where AMLO can win since he has a ceiling of around 40% and likely even 35%.  The biggest variable now that PRI will not fall apart is can PAN and PRD form an alliance and a joint candidate next year.

[jaichind]

I reckon PRI will end up winning Edomex - gut feel.

We'll see!

Jaichind thanks for all your updates, really appreciated, love following Mexican politics.

Good call ... going into the election I felt due to anti-PRI tactical voting MORENA should have the upper hand.  I guess I over-learned the lessons of the 2016 elections.

[jaichind]

Veracruz results so far (212 out of 212 cities reporting) - vote share non-null and 99% of the vote counted (one more batch came in)

                 Vote share       Leading
PAN-PRD       33.64%        113
PRI-PVEM      18.64%          35
PRI                 2.27%            3
PVEM              2.01%           4
MORENA       17.88%         18
PANAL            6.97%         18
MC                 7.08%           8
PT                  4.98%           5
PES                3.04%           5
Ind                3.50%            3

[jaichind]

In Coahuila it seems in the non-PR assembly seats it is a narrow victory for PAN-UDC with PRI 7 PAN-UDC 9.  Although with PR seats it might be a near 50/50 split of the seats.

[jaichind]

In Nayarit in the non-PR assembly seats it is a runaway for PAN-PRD with 15 PRI 2 MORENA 1

[jaichind]

Nayarit results (non-null) around 69% counted

PAN-PRD-PT          39.92%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  28.44%
PRI rebel               12.23%
MORENA               11.74%
MC                         4.79%

Both PAN-PRD and PRI losing ground slowly. 

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)  92% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  34.54%
MORENA              32.02%
PRD                     18.52%
PAN                     11.62%
PRI rebel                2.20%
PT                         1.10% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PRI continues to gain ground slowly.

[jaichind]

AMLO crying fraud, as expected and according to script.

[jaichind]

Coahuila results (non-null) 75% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     38.53%
PAN                         37.49%
MORENA                  12.33%
PRI rebel                   7.78%
PRD                          1.67%
PT                            1.52%  (dropped out to support MORENA)

PAN closing very slowing on PRI but nowhere at the rate needed for it to pull ahead.

[jaichind]

In Coahuila assembly elections for the non-PR assembly seats it is still PAN-UDC 9 (8 PAN 1 UDC) vs 7 PRI.  PRI did not have an alliance with PVEM which it cost it dearly.  If PRI had an alliance with PVEM it would have been PRI 9 PAN-UDC 7

[jaichind]

Nayarit results (non-null) around 79% counted

PAN-PRD-PT          39.73%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  28.16%
PRI rebel               12.34%
MORENA               12.09%
MC                         4.76%

Both PAN-PRD and PRI losing ground slowly.

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)  95% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  34.74%
MORENA              31.87%
PRD                     18.46%
PAN                     11.62%
PRI rebel                2.20%
PT                         1.11% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PRI continue to gain ground

when compared to 2011 non-null results PAN did not change much but MORENA grew at the expense of PRI to a bit from PRD.

2011 Edomex

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  65.09%
PRD-PT-MC           22.01%
PAN                     12.90%

[jaichind]

Coahuila results (non-null) 79% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     38.51%
PAN                         37.45%
MORENA                  12.36%
PRI rebel                   7.82%
PRD                          1.67%
PT                            1.51%  (dropped out to support MORENA)

PAN closing very slowing on PRI but nowhere at the rate needed for it to pull ahead.

[jaichind]

Nayarit results (non-null) around 81% counted

PAN-PRD-PT          39.68%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  28.17%
PRI rebel               12.32%
MORENA               12.13%
MC                         4.76%

While this seems like a significant defeat for PRI when compared to 2011 results it is clear that PRI lost ground but so did PAN-PRD

2011 Nayarit (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL   46.88%
PAN                       39.38%
PRD                       11.09%
PT                           2.12%

Once we add up the PRI-PVEM-PANAL vote share with PRI rebel the PRI-PVEM-PANAL lost ground by around 6%.  But PAN-PRD-PT lost ground relative to the sum of 2011 results by around 13%.  It seems MORENA and MC grew at the expense of PRI and PRD.

[jaichind]

Coahuila results (non-null) 81% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     38.53%
PAN-PES-UDC          37.47%
MORENA                  12.37%
PRI rebel                   7.78%
PRD                          1.67%
PT                            1.51%  (dropped out to support MORENA)

When compared to 2011 PAN grew a bit while MORENA mostly grew at the expense of PRI

2011 Coahulia

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     61.48%
PAN-UDC                36.00%
PT-MC                       1.57%
PRD                          0.95%