The Official 2020 Census Thread

[Tender Branson]

Reference numbers:

Based on today's mid-2019 estimates, about 329.5 million people should be counted in the next few months.

Depending on how many Americans fill out their forms online etc. - there could also be a significant over- or undercount.

Also:

If you are jobless right now, the Census Bureau is increasing their pay because of the low unemployment rate in the country. They need 500.000 census takers in the next few months.

Pay is ca. 25$ the hour.

https://www.post-gazette.com/local/region/2019/12/29/Census-bureau-raises-pay-attract-applicants-Pittsburgh-area-pennsylvania/stories/201912260118

[Tender Branson]

With the Census officially being launched on Tuesday in Alaska, hiring the 500.000 needed census takers is going well:

https://federalnewsnetwork.com/agency-oversight/2020/01/as-2020-census-hiring-ramps-up-bureau-expects-swimmingly-successful-field-operations

The Census Bureau already has 1.7 million applications for the 500k jobs, with 30k more coming per day.

They set a goal of 2.7 million and they still have 2 months left until they stop hiring and start training them for the May-August field operations.

[Tintrlvr]

In hindsight, this is interesting:

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2011/01/12/state-population-estimates-and-census-2010-counts-did-they-match/

CA, TX and FL - states with big growth and large Hispanic immigrant shares - actually had counts close to the estimates before the Census.

The biggest outlier was AZ, where far fewer people were counted than it was estimated.

It is definitely instructive to remember that the estimates were off by nearly 5% in two states (Arizona and Hawaii) in 2010. There was also no clear pattern to which states were under-estimated or over-estimated (e.g., Arizona and Georgia were significantly over-estimated, but Florida was under-estimated; New York was over-estimated, but Pennsylvania was under-estimated).

[Tender Branson]

Today, the 2020 Census officially starts, in Alaska:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-census/us-census-bureau-launches-once-a-decade-head-count-in-rural-alaska-idUSKBN1ZK177

Mainland + Hawaii people will get their information cards to respond in March.

[Tender Branson]

New PEW survey about the coming Census operation:

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/02/20/most-adults-aware-of-2020-census-and-ready-to-respond-but-dont-know-key-details

Americans are very clueless about the 10-year Census.

60% still think that Citizenship will be asked in the Census questionnaire (wrong).

Another 20% are undecided. Only 17% know that it won’t be asked.

About 80% of Americans will take part in the Census (historical average).

Old people are more likely to take part as young people and Whites more than minorities.

Most will respond online, even though only a small fraction of Americans know so far that online response will be an option for the first time this year ...

The Census Bureau will spend 500 Million $ the next weeks on an information campaign.

[Tender Branson]

The mailers are now being sent out to every household in the US.

Most will respond online or by phone, but many won’t - and it is unclear what the Census Bureau will do with regards to personal followup interviews at home ...

March 12 - 20: Households began receiving official Census Bureau mail with detailed information on how to respond to the 2020 Census online, by phone, or by mail.

March 30 - April 1: The Census Bureau will count people who are experiencing homelessness over these three days. As part of this process, the Census Bureau counts people in shelters, at soup kitchens and mobile food vans, on the streets, and at non-sheltered, outdoor locations such as tent encampments.

April 1: Census Day is observed nationwide. When you respond to the census, you'll tell the Census Bureau where you live as of April 1, 2020.

https://2020census.gov/en/important-dates.html

[Idaho Conservative]

The virus will likely cause record low response rates, they can't send people door to door.

[Tender Branson]

The virus will likely cause record low response rates, they can't send people door to door.

Not really.

You can respond online for the first time ever.

And also by mail or by phone.

Based on previous census experience, 90%+ will respond in such a way.

A visit by the Census takers is only the last resort and this might still be done if they interview from a certain distance from your doorstep.

[Dr. Arch]

The online census was the easiest thing.

[Tender Branson]

The online census was the easiest thing.

How was it ?

Can you describe the procedure for us non-Americans ?

[Dr. Arch]

The online census was the easiest thing.

How was it ?

Can you describe the procedure for us non-Americans ?

You get a letter with 12-digit alphanumeric code that corresponds to your address. Then, you go to the census site and put that code in to get the digital form.

Then, you fill out the form with the relevant information (most items are checkboxes and multiple choice answers), submit, and print the confirmation code for your records.

The forms took less than 10 minutes to complete total.

[Tender Branson]

The online census was the easiest thing.

How was it ?

Can you describe the procedure for us non-Americans ?

You get a letter with 12-digit alphanumeric code that corresponds to your address. Then, you go to the census site and put that code in to get the digital form.

Then, you fill out the form with the relevant information (most items are checkboxes and multiple choice answers), submit, and print the confirmation code for your records.

The forms took less than 10 minutes to complete total.

Good.

As it should be ...

Hopefully, most will respond in such a way or by mail or phone - so they don't have the hassle with the followup visits.

I also hope the online system doesn't crash at some point the next weeks when millions of Americans will fill it out at the same time.

If the CB conducts this census well with high response rates (or similar ones compared with 2010 or 2000), then we can applaud them for their work.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I just got mine today, finished filling it out and everything.

[Idaho Conservative]

For blue state republicans in blue areas it makes sense not to participate.  The only recourse since your vote doesn't mean anything.  But you can reduce the power of that vote.  Particularly for states like California on the verge of losing a district. 

[emailking]

Filled mine out today.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

Currently, more than 11 million US households have already completed their census forms online, by mail or by phone.

Self-Response Rate Map Data and Technical Documentation

The U.S. Census Bureau has launched an interactive map to help community leaders, the media, and the public track self-response to the 2020 Census. The map, available on 2020census.gov/response-rates, currently displays 2010 Census self-response rates as a reference point for states, counties, cities, census tracts, and various other geographies around the country.

Beginning March 20, 2020, the Census Bureau will update the map daily to reflect current 2020 self-response rates for geographies including states, counties, census tracts, congressional districts, towns or townships, consolidated cities, incorporated places, tribal areas, and tribal census tracts. This map will show only self-response rates where census forms were completed online, by mail, or by phone. The remainder of households will be counted in person by census takers.

Updates and Data Availability

The 2020 Census Self-Response Rate Map and the data in the public API will be updated once daily at 3:00 pm Eastern seven days a week from March 20 to May 31. Starting on June 1, the map and data will be updated Monday through Friday with the final update on July 31. There will be no updates on Friday, July 3.

The data for the 2020 Census Self-Response Rate Map will be available in the Census Bureau’s public API. See the Developers webpage on census.gov for general API information and support.

Technical documentation link

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

Currently, more than 11 million US households have already completed their census forms online, by mail or by phone.

The US has about 130 million households, so if the map launches today - the national response rate should start at around 10%.

In 2010, the CB started their response map on March 24 (4 days later than now) and started with a 16% return rate.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

Currently, more than 11 million US households have already completed their census forms online, by mail or by phone.

The US has about 130 million households, so if the map launches today - the national response rate should start at around 10%.

In 2010, the CB started their response map on March 24 (4 days later than now) and started with a 16% return rate.

It’s pretty likely that the initial 2020 response rate after the 1st round of mailings will start at the same rate as 2010.

So, millions of Americans will fill out their forms over the weekend, which means that the 16% initial rate from March 24, 2010 could be met.

Don’t be discouraged by a 10% rate today ... The important update for comparison will be Tuesday.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

Currently, more than 11 million US households have already completed their census forms online, by mail or by phone.

The US has about 130 million households, so if the map launches today - the national response rate should start at around 10%.

In 2010, the CB started their response map on March 24 (4 days later than now) and started with a 16% return rate.

It’s pretty likely that the initial 2020 response rate after the 1st round of mailings will start at the same rate as 2010.

So, millions of Americans will fill out their forms over the weekend, which means that the 16% initial rate from March 24, 2010 could be met.

Don’t be discouraged by a 10% rate today ... The important update for comparison will be Tuesday.

In 2010, the CB sent out the first round of mailings between March 15-17 and the initial response map started March 24.

This time, the CB sent out the first mailers between March 12-20, with the response map already starting today (March 20).

So it is almost guaranteed that the early 2020 response will be lower compared with 2010, because they had a 1 week headstart.

Factoring in these facts, only the March 27 update would show comparable rates this year compared with 2010 ...

[Tender Branson]

For blue state republicans in blue areas it makes sense not to participate.  The only recourse since your vote doesn't mean anything.  But you can reduce the power of that vote.  Particularly for states like California on the verge of losing a district. 

The 10-year Census is not primarily about elections or reapportionment.

It is to determine the size of the population and redistribution of federal funds to counties and communities.

Therefore, everyone should take part in this - and leave politics aside.

Besides, when will Trump fill out his form ?

I remember Obama and Clinton filling out their forms in 2010 and 2000 ...

[Idaho Conservative]

Well few people end up really seeing those funds anyways.  California Dems don't give a sh*t about republicans so it is the only recourse to hurt them. 

[Tender Branson]

Well few people end up really seeing those funds anyways.  California Dems don't give a sh*t about republicans so it is the only recourse to hurt them.  

As I've said: the 10-year census should not be political. It's only in the US (and a few other countries) where it's extremely political. It's not about hurting this party, or that party.

And yes, people are seeing those funds for themselves. Maybe not directly, but in the form of more or less funding for schools, roads, etc. in their community. So it would be best if everyone takes part to ensure that funds are accordingly distributed along the actual population numbers in each town.

[jimrtex]

For blue state republicans in blue areas it makes sense not to participate.  The only recourse since your vote doesn't mean anything.  But you can reduce the power of that vote.  Particularly for states like California on the verge of losing a district. 

The 10-year Census is not primarily about elections or reapportionment.

It is to determine the size of the population and redistribution of federal funds to counties and communities.

Therefore, everyone should take part in this - and leave politics aside.

Besides, when will Trump fill out his form ?

I remember Obama and Clinton filling out their forms in 2010 and 2000 ...

It is incompetent to use 10 year-old data.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

The map is now online.

14% of US households have already responded as of yesterday.

That is a very good start.

It was 16% in 2010, with a week headstart compared to now.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

The map is now online.

14% of US households have already responded as of yesterday.

That is a very good start.

It was 16% in 2010, with a week headstart compared to now.

Nebraska has the highest initial response rate with almost 20%.

The Midwest has the best rates so far, but also Idaho and Nevada.