Anna Komnene
Siren
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,653
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« on: August 08, 2017, 11:20:09 AM » |
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« edited: August 08, 2017, 11:32:28 AM by Siren »
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Kennedy would be an intriguing candidate for me because he's both African American and a conservadem which might make him a better fit Alabama dems/indies than usual. People always talk about how racially polarized the politics in Alabama can be. If you look at both times Obama was on the ballot, he got a very similar number of votes each time. ~813k in 2008 and ~795k in 2012.
I don't expect Kennedy to approach presidential level turnout in this race, but if the AL Dem party gets behind him (and that's not at all certain given their dismissive comments about him in the articles), there could be an opportunity for democrats to pull a stronger turnout than usual. If you combine that with possibly lower turnout for Republicans in the special, this could be closer than a typical AL Sen race, but I still expect whoever the GOP nominates to win fairly comfortably. Of course, if AL dems fail to support him, it could also be a total collapse because the absolutely critical feature of any Kennedy campaign will be making sure AL dems know he is running.
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