PA PrimD: Survey USA: Clinton far ahead of Obama (user search)
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  PA PrimD: Survey USA: Clinton far ahead of Obama (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA PrimD: Survey USA: Clinton far ahead of Obama  (Read 8391 times)
Gustaf
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E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« on: March 13, 2008, 02:48:43 PM »

Smash, your argument makes no sense. It's true that it would be worse for Obama if the closed primary made him lose black voters in addition to losing independents and Republicans but the fact that it isn't doesn't really constitute a good thing. It's not like the black percentage rising actually means any gains for him, since the percentage of white Democrats increase as well. If I have 40 voters and 20 of them are mine and you kill 10 of them it's true that the remaining 10 became 33% instead of 25% of the electorate but it doesn't really help the fact that I lost half my voters.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2008, 05:49:33 AM »

Smash, your argument makes no sense. It's true that it would be worse for Obama if the closed primary made him lose black voters in addition to losing independents and Republicans but the fact that it isn't doesn't really constitute a good thing. It's not like the black percentage rising actually means any gains for him, since the percentage of white Democrats increase as well. If I have 40 voters and 20 of them are mine and you kill 10 of them it's true that the remaining 10 became 33% instead of 25% of the electorate but it doesn't really help the fact that I lost half my voters.

I wasn't suggesting it would help Obama.  I was saying one thing that tends to get overlooked is that  it would also result in a higher % of African Americans, which diminshes though doesn't completley negate the impact of not having the crossovers.

Eh, no. It does not diminish anything. You're saying "does not compeletely negate" as if it negates at all. But it doesn't. Read my post again. Of course, if you remove some Obama voters the remaining Obama voters will be a higher percentage than they were before. If all Democrats except you were disenfranchised your share of the total electorate would rise stupendously. But it would neither "diminish" nor "negate" the fact that you would be in the minority. It's just a logically unescapable corrollary of the first point.
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