NJ 2009

[Verily]

Remind me again why it's "all but certain" that Christie will run. I seem to remember you saying the same of 2006 and 2008.

[Verily]

I don't think its too early to start talking about NJ and VA 2009.  After all, those elections are only ~16 months away.

Anyway, I agree with you Down that NJ could be an interesting race to watch after we swear-in the new president.  My interest will definitely be peaked with both New Jersey and Virginia.

"Piqued", not "peaked".

As for Christie's chances... no idea, but not as high as you'd like. Despite his relatively high-profile work, he doesn't have much recognition, and he doesn't have the money/fundraising ability to compete with Corzine. Moreover, he has to do more than say that Corzine's budget plans suck. He has to actually present one of his own, and there really is no plan that would be more popular than Corzine's (nor do I think the NJGOP and its high-level supporters would let him get away with saying that we should actually increase the state deficit).

[Verily]

Franks was also running in an era that was, somewhat ironically, better for Republicans in NJ (despite 2004 being substantially closer than 2000 in the Presidential race). Is Christie the Republicans' best choice? Probably, but he's not a good choice in the sense of being likely to defeat an incumbent with approval ratings in the doldrums.

Then again, as I have argued many times before, true approval ratings in NJ as useful for comparisons to other states can be calculated by adding at least 10% to the approval rating of any politician.

[Verily]

I agree that approval ratings are ridiculous, as you know, everyone in NJ hates every politician.  Any having a favorable rating means people don't know who they are .  I'm thinking there might be some real gold on attacking Corzine (toll hikes, his girlfriend thing, Zelema Farber (or however you spell it))

Verily, do you know if the Lt. Gov. is elected seperatley or if they are having ticket?

I hadn't looked into it. Tickets, probably. Easier for the machines to control.