2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Unelectable Bystander]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

[GeorgiaModerate]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

It's not uncommon for a party to peak too soon in a cycle.  If the 2016 election had been held a few months earlier, Hillary would have won easily and the D's would likely have held at least one house of Congress.  Similarly, the D's probably peaked too soon in '18 and '20.  Right now it looks like the same thing may be happening to the R's this year -- but there's still plenty of time for that to change.

[Spectator]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

[Devils30]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

Ohio definitely. The Dems could have a great night and hold GA, NV, AZ, pick up PA, WI, NC while even gaining 5 House seats AND still lose Ohio by 4%. Ohio is a red state, I expect Biden +2 seats to stay blue long before Ohio flips.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

Ohio definitely. The Dems could have a great night and hold GA, NV, AZ, pick up PA, WI, NC while even gaining 5 House seats AND still lose Ohio by 4%. Ohio is a red state, I expect Biden +2 seats to stay blue long before Ohio flips.

Ohio flips before NC or a net gain in the House

[Devils30]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

Ohio definitely. The Dems could have a great night and hold GA, NV, AZ, pick up PA, WI, NC while even gaining 5 House seats AND still lose Ohio by 4%. Ohio is a red state, I expect Biden +2 seats to stay blue long before Ohio flips.

Ohio flips before NC or a net gain in the House

Ehh, polling has very much overestimated Dems in Ohio.

[Spectator]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

Ohio definitely. The Dems could have a great night and hold GA, NV, AZ, pick up PA, WI, NC while even gaining 5 House seats AND still lose Ohio by 4%. Ohio is a red state, I expect Biden +2 seats to stay blue long before Ohio flips.

Ohio flips before NC or a net gain in the House

All three have about zero chance of happening as it is, so that’s like splitting hairs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

Ohio definitely. The Dems could have a great night and hold GA, NV, AZ, pick up PA, WI, NC while even gaining 5 House seats AND still lose Ohio by 4%. Ohio is a red state, I expect Biden +2 seats to stay blue long before Ohio flips.

Ohio flips before NC or a net gain in the House

Ehh, polling has very much overestimated Dems in Ohio.

The same polls had Brown winning and he won stop with this OH is Safe R, Rs don't own OH, Biden was Verp to Obama and Obama didn't win OH by himself he won with Biden 2008/12

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

Ohio definitely. The Dems could have a great night and hold GA, NV, AZ, pick up PA, WI, NC while even gaining 5 House seats AND still lose Ohio by 4%. Ohio is a red state, I expect Biden +2 seats to stay blue long before Ohio flips.

Ohio flips before NC or a net gain in the House

Ehh, polling has very much overestimated Dems in Ohio.

This is objectively false.  If you look at the Atlas final polling averages in statewide Ohio races from 2016 - 2020, they consistently overestimate the final Democratic vote share by about 1%-2%.  The issue is that in Ohio, the undecideds tend to break Republican (at least in statewide races).  In that respect, the Ohio polls can be quite useful.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

Ohio definitely. The Dems could have a great night and hold GA, NV, AZ, pick up PA, WI, NC while even gaining 5 House seats AND still lose Ohio by 4%. Ohio is a red state, I expect Biden +2 seats to stay blue long before Ohio flips.

Ohio flips before NC or a net gain in the House

Ehh, polling has very much overestimated Dems in Ohio.

This is objectively false.  If you look at the Atlas final polling averages in statewide Ohio races from 2016 - 2020, they consistently overestimate the final Democratic vote share by about 1%-2%.  The issue is that in Ohio, the undecideds tend to break Republican (at least in statewide races).  In that respect, the Ohio polls can be quite useful.

Being down in multiple polls, isn't a polling error being down in 1, poll is a polling error every poll has Vance down 6 pts same with Oz every poll has Oz down by 6 pts Oz and Vance won't win being down in every poll

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

It's not uncommon for a party to peak too soon in a cycle.  If the 2016 election had been held a few months earlier, Hillary would have won easily and the D's would likely have held at least one house of Congress.  Similarly, the D's probably peaked too soon in '18 and '20.  Right now it looks like the same thing may be happening to the R's this year -- but there's still plenty of time for that to change.

Did they? The Democrats held a consistently large polling lead over the Republicans leading up to the 2018 midterms. I don't remember any peaking happening.

[Xing]

So we’ve gone back from “GCB will be far more Republican than 2010” to “atypical midterm/2002 redux”, then? Got it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

It's not uncommon for a party to peak too soon in a cycle.  If the 2016 election had been held a few months earlier, Hillary would have won easily and the D's would likely have held at least one house of Congress.  Similarly, the D's probably peaked too soon in '18 and '20.  Right now it looks like the same thing may be happening to the R's this year -- but there's still plenty of time for that to change.

Did they? The Democrats held a consistently large polling lead over the Republicans leading up to the 2018 midterms. I don't remember any peaking happening.

In very late 2017 and early 2018, the Democrats led the GCB average by 10 points or more, probably due to fallout from the ACA repeal effort.  There was talk of a 60-70 seat gain in the House.  It started declining in the Spring and settled down in the mid-to-upper single digits thereafter.  Not a huge difference, and a flip in control of the House was never in danger, but it's an illustration of the same principle; the Republicans would have liked an election in early 2022, while the Democrats would have liked it in early 2018.

[GALeftist]

So we’ve gone back from “GCB will be far more Republican than 2010” to “atypical midterm/2002 redux”, then? Got it.

To be honest I didn't believe all the "atypical midterm" stuff either until this week. I thought a 6 point popular vote victory was probably the best possible outcome for Republicans and therefore unlikely, but I also thought all the counterarguments to the fundamentals were mostly cope, we should trust empirics over intuition, and that polling (while obviously lightyears better than intuition, which is basically useless in the presence of real data imo) should count for less than empirics after recent high-profile misses. This week what is really convincing me though are the Washington primaries, which are looking pretty trash for Republicans, like in the neighborhood of an even GCB. If that keeps being the case as more votes are counted I think we are probably looking at an R+2 November popular vote margin, and frankly that's probably erring on the side of caution.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So we’ve gone back from “GCB will be far more Republican than 2010” to “atypical midterm/2002 redux”, then? Got it.

Lol it's a 303 map with wave insurance it's not an R Environment it's a neutral yr

[CascadianIndy]

i will not take the hopium i will not take the hopium i will no-

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

i will not take the hopium i will not take the hopium i will no-

I'm not putting much meaning in it until we are primarily getting likely voter polls - and maybe not even then, given some of the large misses in 2020 - but it is nice to see things at least moving in the right direction.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/joshkraushaar/status/1555535600966582279?s=21&t=7LpzdkAli_YrqUIgtzFPtA

Six new House rating changes from @CookPolitical: three move towards Ds, three move towards Rs.

Biggest eye-catcher: Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon moves to toss-up status, with internal polls showing him tied or trailing.


Makes you wonder, NE-1 result suggests Dobbs impact real. If Bacon is in trouble, how much is the rest of the House GOP path built on a shaky foundation? If Dems pick up NE-2, MI-3, OH-1, CA-27 (maybe 22,45) it would offset some of the GOPs easy pickups. Also wonder if NJ-7 (similar demographics to NE-2) could move to tossup.

NE-02 move is a good one. I've long thought Bacon has been overrated all cycle. Vargas is the strongest candidate he's faced in a while, and it's easy to forget that there's only four more Republican incumbents running in less friendly districts (Flores, Valadao, Garcia, Chabot).

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1555700718819872773

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1555700718819872773

That part I'm more suprised about is how do 16% of people still "not know" who they're going to support on the GCB. And it's not even like this "undecided" % has been going down any. That seems awfully high, and is way higher than we saw in Pres matchup polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1555700718819872773

That part I'm more suprised about is how do 16% of people still "not know" who they're going to support on the GCB. And it's not even like this "undecided" % has been going down any. That seems awfully high, and is way higher than we saw in Pres matchup polls.

Rs were still losing in the Senate races pre Dobbs Biden 33% Approvals 40/39% Mark Kelly we just expanded our leads and OH and NC came into play after Dobbs

It's always been a 303 map with wave insurance even in 2016 Hillary lost but it was still a 303 map😊

[wbrocks67]

The GCB result in WA-08 for example is better for Dems than even in 2020, so that's interesting for sure.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1555700718819872773

That part I'm more suprised about is how do 16% of people still "not know" who they're going to support on the GCB. And it's not even like this "undecided" % has been going down any. That seems awfully high, and is way higher than we saw in Pres matchup polls.

ProgMod, there's plenty of registered voters in PA who have no idea that there's a Senate seat up for grabs.  

"Wait, there's another election this year?"

"Oz, is he the Democrat or Republican?"

"Wait, who's retiring?"

With that in mind, it's little surprise to me that there's a sizable chunk of "I'll decide on election day" types

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1555700718819872773

That part I'm more suprised about is how do 16% of people still "not know" who they're going to support on the GCB. And it's not even like this "undecided" % has been going down any. That seems awfully high, and is way higher than we saw in Pres matchup polls.

I get your point but it's not 16% - it's 11.6% undecided/other right now (44.2 +44.2 decided right now, 88.4)

[Devils30]

The GCB result in WA-08 for example is better for Dems than even in 2020, so that's interesting for sure.

Yeah, these Biden +6 suburban seats are looking good for the Dems right now. The next 4-8 weeks are crucial in determining where the party should spend. Dems should resist burning money Ohio Senate and load up these marginal seats like AZ-1, AZ-6, CA-22,27,45, IA-3, NE-2, FL-27, OH-1, IL-17 where their nominees could use some cash.