Kentucky 2010

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Do the Democrats have an opponent to run against Jim Bunning?

Do you think the country will ever elect a black president?  Dawg you gotta keep with the times

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_2010

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or Rand Paul somehow manages to blow it all up

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rand is leading grayson in the polls last I checked

This is true [as much as anyone CAN lead anyone when you're both under 40 in a two-way race]

as an amateur student of Kentucky politics, I can't explain why, I don't believe Rand is on the air, but he might be spending money in other ways.  Really, as soon as he gets the money, he should be rushing to fill the void that the KY Sec of State isn't filled....he's got the fundraising advantage and should be pushing it early and hard.

I don't know though.  I have a hard time believing that McConnell can't deliver his primary to his chosen one over a libertarian in a state like Kentucky.  If Paul wins, it's because some of the rednecks are Democrats

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rand is leading grayson in the polls last I checked

One poll had him up by 3 or 5 points with 18 undecided. I don't care for either Paul. My money is on Grayson.

All good money should probably be on Grayson at the moment.  

BUT even if he's the only Republican in state-wide Constitutional office in KY, he's not THAT well known, is not a particularly talented fundraiser and would probable be limping by with $300kish if it weren't for McConnell [or, more likely a GOP congressman would just blow him out of the water in the primary], and Grayson has plenty of time and inexperience to make a huge gaffe or otherwise make a campaign mistake.

I'm really torn on this race, the only thing I know is that Mogniardo won't be the Democratic nominee and if he is, he'll lose to a five finger frog if the GOP chooses to nominate one.


Something in me just tells me that McConnell controls a lot of what is going down and that KY GOP primaries would be a pretty shocking place for the first major electoral success of the Ron Paul movement.  


the real problem for the Democrats here is that they got this loser Blue Dog who I'm literally seriously not sure if he still lives in his parents basement that's hanging in there preventing Conway from rhetorically going to the center.

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Paul is already at $1.2 million and is gaining momentum, McConnel almost lost re-election in a state where Mcain dominated, his influence might not be what it once was.

That was just because of TARP.  And there is a big difference in KY between the rejection of Osama's Obama's agenda and rejection of George Bush's at the end of his term.

Obama was actually running ads in KY media markets to reach neighboring states, I have yet to hear a really convincing argument as to why 2010 will favorite the Democrats more in these types of situations than 2006-2008.

I actually think this race is more competitive and favorable to the Democrats than the national media or this forum estimates, but gotta call it out as it is.

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Bunning barely beat Mongiardo in what was a heavily GOP year (2004), with a gay marriage ballot measure in the state, and with the race being ignored by the national party.

That said, Mongiardo would be the nominee again if everyone in the Democratic establishment didn't already know he was a loser.  He was the Governor's third or fourth choice for Lt. Gov, and got the most tepid friday afternoon endorsement ever in exchange early on his campaign.  Beshear is probably going to secretly vote for Conway and the rest of the establishment much less so.

Mongiardo did do surprisingly okay in his last quarter of fundraising though, even if still trailing.

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And Mongiardo had that expletive-laced phone call leaked too. Despite all this he's still leading. Who knows.

"leading"  = name recognition

the ads haven't run yet

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maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe