2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Check out the stats of your Hispanic CD's in the Metroplex and Houston areas. You need 2 in Houston and I in the Metroplex per Gingles most probably. Is the voting racially polarized, and if it is, for a Gingles protected Hispanic CD, are a majority of the voters in a Dem primary Hispanic? That is the critical question. It appears to be the case in Dem primaries, that voting is very racially polarized between blacks and Hispanics in Texas.

And check out LULAC v Perry about unnecessarily erose CD's claimed to be adequate CD's for purposes of satisfying the VRA. It is even worse if the erose lines are intended to facilitate a Pub snatch.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_United_Latin_American_Citizens_v._Perry

Personally, I always try to minimize the erosity of Gingles triggered and protected CD's, and do it only to the extent necessary to make them performing, or defensible as a reasonable community of interest. Sometimes however to make a Gingles protected CD performing for Hispanics, that means making a black CD erose, since blacks carry so much punch in Dem primaries.

You may disagree and that is fine, but hopefully I have explained my point of view adequately to you. As a poster here who knows this stuff better than anyone else here explained to me, the loadstar is to not gerrymander Gingles protected CD's except to the extent necessary to make them performing, and never to facilitate a Pub snatch. My TX map was driven by this point of view of what the VRA currently requires.

Addendum: Your TX-15 fits the bill well it appears as an erose Pub snatch, and you erased an Hispanic CD by drawing a CD that combines Laredo and Bexar County. I have two performing Hispanic CD's in Bexar, one Laredo based and one sitting down on the RGV down river from Laredo. All are compact. My TX-34 is a Pub snatch, but it I don't think it is gerrymandered. Another trick I did was to make TX-11 a 50%+ HCVAP CD, which while Pub I think will appeal to the court even if perhaps it is not compact enough to trigger Gingles, assuming Gingles applies there at all where where such a high percentage of Hispanics are Pub in the oil patch.

I've redone 15, 27, and 34. Thoughts on the latest version?

Per a very quick look, the RGV-Bexar issues we discussed are mitigated but not eliminated. You still have a CD going from Laredo to San Antonio, that is marginal, when you could have two CD's, both not marginal, one in SA and one in Laredo. I appreciate you pick up a performing Dem Hispanic on the Gulf, but helping out Dem Hispanics in one area does not legalize screwing them elsewhere. That is clear from the Perry case, among other issues. I guess the bottom line is that you need 3 safe performing CD's in the region, that are available as compact and without gerrymandering at all, and as soon as you move away from that per gerrymandering, you pari passu assume VRA risk in my opinion.

The crux of the matter might be me axing TX-35 (the current Latino seat running from Bexar to Travis). The "replacement" for that is the new TX-10, drawn to be as Latino as possible but also still controlled by white liberals in practice. But TX-10 also uses up a lot of Latino precincts probably vital for inclusion in a San Antonio-area CD if we want to add another performing Latino seat there.
Can the TX GOP argue that TX-35 being eliminated can be justified by Gingles?

The short answer is that while TX-35 was legal in 2010 to create another performing Hispanic CD, per the 2020 census numbers, it is almost certainly illegal now. Why? Because unlike in 2010, you can nest the old TX-35 in Bexar County without losing another Hispanic CD. And that is the fix, not drawing Fajita strips in this cycle that appear designed to cost the Hispanics a performing CD, per a Pub snatch, or very close to it. You have gerrymandered to put at risk a performing Hispanic CD, when it is not only possible, but obvious, that you can draw compact, safe performing Hispanic CD's without any gerrymandering at all. I would take that case on a contingency for the Dems. They would have a very meritorious case in my opinion.

Why F with the VRA if you don't have to, and get next to nothing from it from a partisan perspective for the Pubs? It makes no sense to me. Not that the TX Pubs won't go there of course. TX Pubs are capable of anything. They kind of terrify sometimes actually, macho reckless types that the center of gravity of the Pub TX party seems to be these days. The ethos of George Herbert Walker Bush down in TX just seems like a century ago to me. Ditto in some other states as well, but I digress. Both parties pretty much suck to me these days. But then you already knew that I think.

I have comprehensively redrawn the lines in Bexar. How good are they now?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/20ce1db5-fe7b-4e2e-87b6-0073e18e7845
Race-blind map.
Integrity of cities and, even more so, counties, and compactness was emphasized. There are eight whole county CDs. Exactly half of the districts voted for Joe Biden.
In Bexar especially, ring roads were used as district boundaries.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

I honestly get serious dummymander vibes from this map, there are multiple Trump+14 2020 seats in the Dallas area and a Trump+6 one in the Houston area, also McCaul and Roy seem to have been drawn into safe Democratic seats. Instead, I think having a single Austin pack as a new seat is the smarter play, and also preserving the current I-35 seat.

The DFW metro seats are mostly a mixture of suburban and rural. Population growth could flip them but it's much different than if it was an all-suburban CD. In practice, you would need the suburban portions of those CDs to swing 20, perhaps even 30 points towards Democrats, unless there is a swing in rural areas as well that can make up the difference.
Of course some of them might fall. But even in an R worst case scenario, the bulk of the seats should hold. The only really vulnerable district is the Denton County district, which could probably flip in 2026 or 2028. But by then, the map has performed well enough that it's basically guaranteed not to be dummymander overall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

I'm suprised how clean you were able to make it. I'm still hesistant to believe the GOP will make 3 fajitas that start out as Dem leading, especially if it does turn out 2020 was a bit of an exception. To be fair, it's hard to even draw 1 R leaning hispanic VRA seat in RGV without getting frisky. The Metroplex config is interesting but works quite well, and North Dallas doesn't look that brutal. That 26 and 22 are obv not safe and I think the GOP will probably find a way to shroe them up a bit but this looks pretty realistic overall.

22 is hard to do all that much more about. In fact I already shored it up. TX-22 as is currently constituted voted for Trump by 1 point, under this map, it does so by 6.
If Rs could hold it in 2020 in an open seat by a larger than expected margin then they should be able to be quite competitive here for at least three cycles. If Ds win the 2024 election then it becomes very very hard to see them making the massive gains needed to put it away.
26 is different and yes I could see it being done quite a bit differently. But Trump+9 isn't anything to sneeze at. It should still elect Rs for the majority of the 2020s in most reasonable scenarios.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

Why did you keep Kevin Brady's massive vote sink he's retiring? Also it's easy to draw out Fletcher if you crack Montgomery three ways.

I early on decided I didn't want to draw out Fletcher. Three districts crossing the Harris-Montgomery line is just unnecessary and overly risky in the long term anyway.
Better to pack TX-07 then get the R-voting parts of West Houston in a R district. In the end TX-07 was packed so well I didn't even need to send any districts into Montgomery County.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I find it absurd that the republicans are set to gain 2 seats, despite the democratic cities and D leaning suburbs being where the population growth is happening. We could see a situation where the republicans try and pack all the democratic cities/suburbs into as few districts as possible :/

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

[url removed]Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

Why did you keep Kevin Brady's massive vote sink he's retiring? Also it's easy to draw out Fletcher if you crack Montgomery three ways.

I early on decided I didn't want to draw out Fletcher. Three districts crossing the Harris-Montgomery line is just unnecessary and overly risky in the long term anyway.
Better to pack TX-07 then get the R-voting parts of West Houston in a R district. In the end TX-07 was packed so well I didn't even need to send any districts into Montgomery County.

Do you think they'll pack all of Houston into a single district? Or would that risk state courts getting involved if it's too extreme of a gerrymander?

What do you mean by "pack all of Houston into a single district"? Houston is just over the size of three CDs by itself anyway. (VRA means that it's inevitable for some of those to spill into neighboring areas)
Also, welcome to the forum! Apologies if I misread your question!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I find it absurd that the republicans are set to gain 2 seats, despite the democratic cities and D leaning suburbs being where the population growth is happening. We could see a situation where the republicans try and pack all the democratic cities/suburbs into as few districts as possible :/

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

[url removed]Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

Why did you keep Kevin Brady's massive vote sink he's retiring? Also it's easy to draw out Fletcher if you crack Montgomery three ways.

I early on decided I didn't want to draw out Fletcher. Three districts crossing the Harris-Montgomery line is just unnecessary and overly risky in the long term anyway.
Better to pack TX-07 then get the R-voting parts of West Houston in a R district. In the end TX-07 was packed so well I didn't even need to send any districts into Montgomery County.

Do you think they'll pack all of Houston into a single district? Or would that risk state courts getting involved if it's too extreme of a gerrymander?

What do you mean by "pack all of Houston into a single district"? Houston is just over the size of three CDs by itself anyway. (VRA means that it's inevitable for some of those to spill into neighboring areas)
Also, welcome to the forum! Apologies if I misread your question!

I meant combining the 3 districts into one solitary district. I don't know if that's too extreme though xP

Non-single member districts have been illegal since 1968 for the purpose of US House elections.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good sign for the fajitas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good sign for the fajitas.

I think TX Republicans realizing that a large number of never-voting Hispanics showing up only to vote for Trump in 2020 may not be a strong basis for future wins.

It's basically a gamble. TX GOPers would rather play it safe, and that's, bluntly, quite rational.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it normal for the population deviations to be so large?

For a state legislative map? It's pretty normal. A bit less than standard you see in some states.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

When do we get lower house?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a clue of how precise this map was made -

Districts 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 17, 18, 24, and 25 are ALL within 39.9% to 43.3% Biden 2020.   A top to bottom margin of only 3.4%.   

Twelve districts total, all of them in and around the four major metros.

This map should be able to hold a majority through 2030, tbh.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a clue of how precise this map was made -

Districts 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 17, 18, 24, and 25 are ALL within 39.9% to 43.3% Biden 2020.   A top to bottom margin of only 3.4%.  

Twelve districts total, all of them in and around the four major metros.

This map should be able to hold a majority through 2030, tbh.

Assuming all the RGV seats hold (who knows),  the Dems only need 4 seats to flip.  

I'd say the most likely are 7, 8, 12, and 25.   Also the Ft Worth districts, 9 and 10, might be a dummymander later on too.

The vast bulk of seats that Ds need to flip a majority on that map mix suburban and exurban and even rural. There are basically no "pure suburban" R seats anymore except 7 and 11. This means Ds need bigger suburban swings to reach the same number of seats.
Not that Rs can't lose their majorities under this map - they absolutely can - but Ds are efficiently packed to the point that they'd need a fairly substantial statewide majority under these lines.  So I think Rs are likelier, not that much likelier but still likelier, to hold the majority come 2030. A lot depends on the exact margins though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

To really highlight the thrust of this map - I only need to look at the district in which I was born, SD-08.

Rains and Hunt and most of Collin. This is probably the easiest or among the easiest flips for Ds. The two non-Collin counties are small and combined, they are around 12% of the population or so (while having a roughly 25k vote margin for Trump). I admit that I don't see this standing for the entire decade because of that, and it probably lasts four years or something. At the same time, what the GOP did here is simple yet also the best option they have - mix suburban (Collin County) and exurban (Hunt County) and rural (Rains County) and all that stuff. Removing all of Richardson is smart because in a close election, the Biden-voting Collin portion would probably be very important for Democrats. Frisco meanwhile was removed presumably because of its very fast Dem trend and because it could be placed in a safe R seat that was more...rural.

Unless Democrats get mathematically significant swings in numerical vote terms in the more rural parts of the seat, the load for flipping this seat lies more-or-less wholely on Collin County, and particularly on Plano and Allen and McKinney, and they would need pretty major swings. Biden lost this seat by 54,729 votes. Since the swings are likely going to be less in the more R parts of it (GOP voters are the majority among those moving to those areas, iirc), and in fact we might be looking at net GOP swings in the more outlying parts of it, Dems have to marshall a net margin of at least 60,000 votes (roughly) in the more dense parts of it for it to flip. Far from impossible but also far from inevitable. And this is in an optimistic scenario.

Assuming that it takes 10 years for demographic change to appear in voting patterns, I would say that this is roughly 50/50 in 2026 for purpose of a state senate election, with the best of knowledge we have now. I don't know how they decide what seats are up in what years, but if this seat is only up in 2022 and 2026, then the GOP winning this seat in 2026 (perfectly possible) would result in them holding it for 8 years out of 10. And them doing so would be because they drew the lines like this.

I don't think there is a very viable path to a Dem majority without SD-08, and if not even SD-08 is a sure thing, that doesn't say a lot of good about Dem chances at a majority.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The thing is though the vast majority of those exurban/rural areas in Texas are already voting 80% or even 90% Republican and a lot of them aren't growing much at all (some of them are in decline).  

Even from 2016 to 2020 there wasn't really any real R trend in Texas in the rural areas around the metros.    There's just not a whole lot more for Republicans to get out of those areas.  I know "maxed out" is a phrase used a lot here, but in this case it really does have a lot of merit.

Meanwhile everything that we have to look at right now shows the Texas metros continuing to move left as fast as Atlanta (except maybe Houston).   Republicans have an extremely weak foundation to work with here.

I don't think it's at all a given that we see 2016>2020 trends continue at comparable pace indefinitely over the course of the decade. There's a lot we just don't know. I am skeptical of the idea we can just project 2016>2020 trends indefinitely and make judgement of maps on basis of that.

It's also the case that numerical votes matter as much as vote %. And this means exurban areas still help Republicans vis a vis Democrats even if they swing towards Democrats - the raw margins GOPers are getting are increasing in some areas.

Johnson County
Year Republican Democratic Third parties
2020 75.9% 54,628 22.9% 16,464 1.3% 928
2016 77.0% 44,382 19.1% 10,988 3.9% 2,236
2012 77.1% 37,661 21.5% 10,496 1.4% 681
Since 2012 the county has actually trended Democratic but Rs have netted 10k net votes.

Ellis County
Year Republican Democratic Third parties
2020 66.3% 56,717 32.2% 27,565 1.4% 1,211
2016 70.1% 44,941 25.4% 16,253 4.6% 2,916
2012 72.9% 39,574 25.6% 13,881 1.5% 799
Despite a very real Dem trend (reaching into high single digits) Rs still net votes from here despite the growth.

Hunt County
Year Republican Democratic Third parties
2020 75.6% 29,163 23.1% 8,906 1.4% 528
2016 75.8% 23,910 20.3% 6,396 4.0% 1,248
2012 74.9% 21,011 23.8% 6,671 1.3% 367
Negligible trend, Rs still net 6k votes.

The moral of the story is that this is a battle of numerical vote tallies as much as it is about margins. Good news for Dems is that SD-08's non-Collin portions aren't really solidly determinative overall - five in six residents live in Collin. That proportion probably will decline as the decade passes, but the fate of SD-08 (a prerequisite for a D senate majority under the GOP map) will be decided not there but in McKinney, Allen, Plano, et cetera. There is also a movement of Rs out of northern Dallas and into Collin from the looks of it (as parts of metro DFW have steadily densified), so how many move north will also be relevant.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

At the very least there are few universes in which Rs do fajitas for one set of maps and not another. And the fajitas existing ensures a certain seat floor for Democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

At the very least there are few universes in which Rs do fajitas for one set of maps and not another. And the fajitas existing ensures a certain seat floor for Democrats.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

The congressional map? What else could I be talking about?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

At the very least there are few universes in which Rs do fajitas for one set of maps and not another. And the fajitas existing ensures a certain seat floor for Democrats.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

The congressional map? What else could I be talking about?

Yes I know that, I just don't know what your point is with regard to the 25-13 map.

He’s saying that based on the Senate map, Republicans are likely to preserve the Congressional fajitas rather than try to wring another Republican seat out of the RGV, so that means Democrats likely have a floor of 13.

I don't think it's necessarily 13 (haven't gave that much thought to the question) but it is undeniable that preserving the RGV fajitas is a net positive for Democrats in pure partisanship terms.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

State Senate map proposal -

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/plans2101 

https://dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Senate/14/PLANS2101

Looks like 2 D seats in Dallas, 3 in Houston, 1 in Austin, 2 in San Antonio, 1 in El Paso, and I "think" 3 RGV fajita strips?

12 D seats total,  but a lot of seats in Houston and Dallas along with SD-25 won't last the decade.

There is not enough population along the border for 5 districts.

Yeah, TX State Senate being just 31 members makes for a sizable difference.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade. 

It is definitely a plausible scenario, them going after TX-07. They'll almost certainly have to use TX-09 to take in Dem areas to undercut Lizzie Fletcher.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade. 

It is definitely a plausible scenario, them going after TX-07. They'll almost certainly have to use TX-09 to take in Dem areas to undercut Lizzie Fletcher.

Right now I'm thinking Fletcher's seat still exists, but she is drawn out as part of the semi-unintentional "no white dem electeds." A case of the white Libs going in one of the AA seats, the white Pubs going in a R seats, and then the reconfigured seat is built out of Fort Bend and Alief and is very diverse.

I agree Fletcher still exists most likely. My "likely scenario" map has TX-07 being turned into a majority-minority CD.
But I do think Rs could still plausibly try to target her district for a flip, and uber-pack the 18th, 9th, and 29th. It would be a dumb move probably, but it could still happen.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade. 

It is definitely a plausible scenario, them going after TX-07. They'll almost certainly have to use TX-09 to take in Dem areas to undercut Lizzie Fletcher.

Right now I'm thinking Fletcher's seat still exists, but she is drawn out as part of the semi-unintentional "no white dem electeds." A case of the white Libs going in one of the AA seats, the white Pubs going in a R seats, and then the reconfigured seat is built out of Fort Bend and Alief and is very diverse.

I agree Fletcher still exists most likely. My "likely scenario" map has TX-07 being turned into a majority-minority CD.
But I do think Rs could still plausibly try to target her district for a flip, and uber-pack the 18th, 9th, and 29th. It would be a dumb move probably, but it could still happen.

My map is butt ugly along the Ft Bend/Harris border, but I fail to see what is "dumb" about it. The Pubs get a strong lean R seat out of TX-07 that should hold for awhile (maybe longer if they continue to make gains with Hispanics), and the rest of the Pub seats in the area were all carried by Trump 2020 by at least 18 points. There seems to be no political downside for the Pubs to just go for it.

If your map works, it does so because it represents almost a platonic ideal unspoiled by things like incumbent concerns.
I feel that in practice TX Rs will not be able to make it work effectively and/or will be driven by factors not purely decided by partisan gain.
Of course I wouldn't rule out them passing a map along the lines you made because it is still quite uncertain and we don't know what map they will propose.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade.  

It is definitely a plausible scenario, them going after TX-07. They'll almost certainly have to use TX-09 to take in Dem areas to undercut Lizzie Fletcher.

Right now I'm thinking Fletcher's seat still exists, but she is drawn out as part of the semi-unintentional "no white dem electeds." A case of the white Libs going in one of the AA seats, the white Pubs going in a R seats, and then the reconfigured seat is built out of Fort Bend and Alief and is very diverse.

I agree Fletcher still exists most likely. My "likely scenario" map has TX-07 being turned into a majority-minority CD.
But I do think Rs could still plausibly try to target her district for a flip, and uber-pack the 18th, 9th, and 29th. It would be a dumb move probably, but it could still happen.

My map is butt ugly along the Ft Bend/Harris border, but I fail to see what is "dumb" about it. The Pubs get a strong lean R seat out of TX-07 that should hold for awhile (maybe longer if they continue to make gains with Hispanics), and the rest of the Pub seats in the area were all carried by Trump 2020 by at least 18 points. There seems to be no political downside for the Pubs to just go for it.

If your map works, it does so because it represents almost a platonic ideal unspoiled by things like incumbent concerns.
I feel that in practice TX Rs will not be able to make it work effectively and/or will be driven by factors not purely decided by partisan gain.
Of course I wouldn't rule out them passing a map along the lines you made because it is still quite uncertain and we don't know what map they will propose.

I actually worried a lot about Pub incumbent concerns and put a lot of thought into that, including where the Pub incumbents live, and district coherency. Whether I did a reasonable job at that is another matter, but I tried. I spent more time on TX than any other state, by far. I was fascinated by the interplay of the VRA, TX trends, incumbent care and feeding, and district coherence. I considered it a worthy challenge for me. I also tried where it did not unduly degrade the efficacy of the Pubmander, to minimize county and municipal chops.

I guess we shall see which of us gets closer to what the map ultimately looks like. I don't doubt you've put in a lot of hard work and effort into your maps and I know you reciprocate that.
Thanks for helping refine my map, btw.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Board of Education district proposal. Beto won a majority of seats under the current plan, so they needed to go a bit wild.

I take it 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 13 are the Dem seats?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From what I’m seeing seems like the GOP is willing to do pretty intense gerrymanders but are still being cautious of the VRA; maybe they want to avoid the risk of the whole map being redrawn?

Yep.  This continues the trend of going to town on Houston and North Dallas while treading carefully elsewhere.

Do we think that district 10 is rural enough to hold for the decade?   

10 probably can last the entire decade.
If I had to guess, 12 is likely the most marginal come 2030, but it's hard to tell exactly.