2020 Texas Redistricting thread (user search)
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  2020 Texas Redistricting thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Texas Redistricting thread  (Read 58289 times)
OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,570
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26

« on: March 28, 2020, 11:49:49 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0bda591f-6533-40cb-8b2b-f0fb333232b1

I made a 39 district map that splits 28 R - 11 D while respecting the VRA. It's definitely ugly, but all Trump districts are Trump+20 other than the Trump+18 Austin one and the Trump+8 Hispanic VRAs, so it's pretty secure to trends. While population shifts will obviously make the final map considerably different, it'll be interesting to see how far the GOP can - and will - go here.
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,570
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2020, 12:48:10 PM »

Pretty sure plenty of those districts are not VRA-compliant. It's not enough for a district to have a majority of electors from a particular demographic group, they also have to be able to elect the candidate of their choice. In several of those districts Hispanics can't, because although they're a clear majority of the population their turnout rates are sufficiently low that they'll get outvoted by whites.

What's more, several of them fail the Gingles test both on the grounds of both compactness and cohesiveness - it's hard to argue that Laredo Hispanics are essentially equivalent to Lubbock Hispanics in terms of political behaviour.
I definitely agree, and I would never be a proponent of that map (which is a peak GOP gerrymander). However, with the Supreme Court as it is right now, it's unclear if those rules still stand, and I could see a Republican legislature in 2020 draw an especially offensive gerrymander to force the issue.
The growth in Austin, Houston, and DFW has been so massive over the last 10 years that anything drawn with equal 2010 populations is pretty much worthless. 
The concept remains the same though - just juggle some of the territory around and maybe crack into the few Titanium R districts left. Bottom line is that the peak for Texas R's is an 11-28 or 12-27 map.
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,570
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26

« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2020, 12:06:50 PM »


Yeah either 3 compact districts or one compact pack and they crack the rest for Hispanic Republicans.
TBH I just think they'll draw the fajitas more favorable to Republicans. It's clearly possible now.
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