Quinnipiac Wisconsin - Biden +6

[BlueSwan]

"If you publish a tied national race and a Biden +6 in Wisconsin within the same week or so, there's something wrong with your collection.

Biden cannot be up by 6 points in the Badger State and tied in the popular vote.

Welcome back to the Silly Season!"

https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1788297934179614973

Somebody is failing to understand MoE. Those results are perfectly possible within normal MoE..

[Pericles]

[Lief 🗽]

With Trump falling behind in Arizona yesterday and now Wisconsin, he's in BIG trouble.

[Sestak]

Thank you QAnonPac PATRIOTS

[DaleCooper]

RFK taking a huge chunk out of Biden. Interesting.

This is probably the one part of the country I could see RFK Jr. hurting Biden more than Trump.

I really don't know about that. Obama-Trump voters are RFK Jr.'s main base. These guys are never voting Democrat for President again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With MD poll and WI we are exactly where we were at in Nov 22 there is no red wave coming

[GoTfan]

With Trump falling behind in Arizona yesterday and now Wisconsin, he's in BIG trouble.

Not really. I just assume undecideds will break his way because people do not like Biden. Simple.

[Vern]

Good poll for Biden. Probably a little off, but it seems Biden is doing well in the Rust belt.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for MC polls they had NC Trump 10 and WI Trump up 4 they inflate Trump numbers by 5

[wbrocks67]

+1 with RFK

I’m sure wbrocks will be skeptical, right?

I mean, I am lol Biden obviously not winning by 6 and the crosstabs are once again messy as hell (white too good for Biden, nonwhite too bad for him, etc. rinse repeat)

And Biden losing a whole 5% to 3rd parties is too much too. Once again, pollsters just can't get a hold on the third parties here, with seeing wild results in either direction depending on who RFK or 3rd parties are taking from that day

[wbrocks67]

I wish...

However, if this same poll had Trump+6, I'm sure it would be accepted as fact.

This, however is correct. The reaction would be much different if that was the result here...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

There have been clear outliers such as the MI Trump +15 poll, but this is also one (though it probably also overrates how much RFK jr. hurts Biden, since with RFK jr. on the ballot, the margin drops to 1). Quinnipac probably also was the one with the Biden +17 poll in the 2020 cycle here?

I wish...

However, if this same poll had Trump+6, I'm sure it would be accepted as fact.

This, however is correct. The reaction would be much different if that was the result here...

Not true, since a majority of people on the forum still think Biden would win. If a R+6 poll in WI was accepted as fact, he'd be done on arrival.

In fact the forum actively purges the users who would accept it as fact out of the forum like Snowlabrador.

This is absolutely not true either. The mental gymnastics to tell how every poll that favours Trump is a bad one, is just ridicilous.

[Sir Mohamed]

Qpac is a weird pollster. This is almost for sure an outlier or worse.

[cg41386]

In fact the forum actively purges the users who would accept it as fact out of the forum like Snowlabrador

.

He was muted for his constant dooming and concern trolling, and in case you haven’t noticed, he’s back, and almost as worse than ever.

This is absolutely not true either. The mental gymnastics to tell how every poll that favours Trump is a bad one, is just ridicilous.

It absolutely is true. Have you not paid attention to some of those poll threads that have exploded?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

In fact the forum actively purges the users who would accept it as fact out of the forum like Snowlabrador

.

He was muted for his constant dooming and concern trolling, and in case you haven’t noticed, he’s back, and almost as worse than ever.

This is absolutely not true either. The mental gymnastics to tell how every poll that favours Trump is a bad one, is just ridicilous.

It absolutely is true. Have you not paid attention to some of those poll threads that have exploded?

I haven't noticed any dooming or concern trolling. And i have a feeling that negative opinions of people are just being copied from other people who share these negative opinions. Like if person A says person B is trolling and obnoxious, person C would just adopt that and parrot that view without any evidence of person B doing so.

That is the forum mentality, and it's strengthened because of the millions of "opinions of ..." thread. In fact, many users just adopt a very intolerant approach and opinion of other people, simply because of hearsay or a very selective amount of posts that don't describe the person's views actually. The strategy of how certain users are blackened or smeared on, is similar to how certain cultural groups were in the past (during racism, colonialism, or in fascist states). And in fact, people for instance also uses this approach to less controversial groups of people, such as Gen Z (which is not easy to define and therefore maybe is not as insulting when doing the same with coloured people or certain cultural or religious groups). But the way Gen Z is described, used and referred on the forum in a way is a cover term for transgender people. Hating Gen Z is a less controversial way of saying you hate trans people.

Responding to your second quote, no i haven't noticed but threads are posted by individuals, i look more towards certain posts or opinions and the number of recommends this had, and based on that, the exact opposite of what you are stating is basically ongoing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously it's the same people trolling about Trump winning and it's votes that count anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously it's the same people trolling about Trump winning and it's votes that count anyways

[DrScholl]

Biden with the edge. I keep trying to tell you all.

[cg41386]

I haven't noticed any dooming or concern trolling. And i have a feeling that negative opinions of people are just being copied from other people who share these negative opinions. Like if person A says person B is trolling and obnoxious, person C would just adopt that and parrot that view without any evidence of person B doing so.

That’s a rather odd take. But no, it’s not a mob mentality at work. He will doom in virtually every way possible. He’s not a victim here, not even in the slightest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know why do users not trust the vote but rely on polls anyways, we have been winning the blue wall since 2006 with 2010/2016 as the exception

Even Gore and Kerry won them but lost on VA

DS the user keeps relying on Gallup as a way to get Trump elected Gallup been at 38 percent Approvals since 2021 and Steve Konaki said that Biden is at 45 percent anyways

[super6646]

Put it in the average, but I seriously doubt Wisconsin is anywhere close to +6 for either candidate.

[DS0816]

https://poll.qu.edu/

Biden - 50
Trump - 44

This is believable with Trump +6.

Trump would win the U.S. Popular Vote by +3—which ties in with carrying 31 states—and likewise Republican pickups of Michigan and Pennsylvania by +5 and +4. (Based on increments of +1 for where each state ranks. Of course, the margins spread can be a bit more or less.)

In 2020, with his Democratic pickup for U.S. President, and Democratic pickups of this trio of top bellwether states, Joe Biden underperformed his margins in all three states vs. his U.S. Popular Vote.

ELECTION 2020
◾️ U.S. Popular Vote: D+4.45
◾️ Michigan: D+2.78
◾️ Pennsylvania: D+1.17
◾️ Wisconsin: D+0.63

This was the first such occurrence—a Democratic winner who carried any of these three states—since 1944 (Pennsylvania and Michigan) and 1992 (Wisconsin).

I suspect, with a 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. President for Donald Trump, the margins in all three states—each a Republican pickup—will be higher than what he receives in the U.S. Popular Vote.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://poll.qu.edu/

Biden - 50
Trump - 44

This is believable with Trump +6.

Trump would win the U.S. Popular Vote by +3—which ties in with carrying 31 states—and likewise Republican pickups of Michigan and Pennsylvania by +5 and +4. (Based on increments of +1 for where each state ranks. Of course, the margins spread can be a bit more or less.)

In 2020, with his Democratic pickup for U.S. President, and Democratic pickups of this trio of top bellwether states, Joe Biden underperformed his margins in all three states vs. his U.S. Popular Vote.

ELECTION 2020
◾️ U.S. Popular Vote: D+4.45
◾️ Michigan: D+2.78
◾️ Pennsylvania: D+1.17
◾️ Wisconsin: D+0.63

This was the first such occurrence—a Democratic winner who carried any of these three states—since 1944 (Pennsylvania and Michigan) and 1992 (Wisconsin).

I suspect, with a 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. President for Donald Trump, the margins in all three states—each a Republican pickup—will be higher than what he receives in the U.S. Popular Vote.

Neither Trump +6 or Biden +6 are believable. It will be within one either way

[DS0816]

Neither Trump +6 or Biden +6 are believable. It will be within one either way

I would not assume that.

An Election 2024 outcome in which Trump wins a Republican pickup for U.S. President and carries 31 states would be, as compared to Election 2020, a net gain of +6 states.

To win pickups of +6 states is usually in line with a national shift of an estimated +6 percentage points.

Biden’s constant struggle for 40 percent in his job approval would not translate to holding onto Wisconsin … and certainly not with a similar level margin he experienced in his 2020 Democratic pickup for U.S. President and this leading bellwether state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, Trump is an insurrectionist and you constantly talk about Biden, this is a valid poll