State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Whoa.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1521662053462999040

Wait, isn't this the a**hole who told his daughter that if she was being raped she just needs to "lie back and enjoy it"?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Boom:

DEM pickup.

https://twitter.com/MIRSnews/status/1521667310121066498?s=20&t=OAh8IUcrqk-zz...

ET is saying this district is going to be Biden +10 after redistricting, so she has a good chance at keeping this even after the midterms.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What's great for Rouse is that he has a perfect safe D seat to run in for the November election that has no incumbent.   SD-22 is Biden+20 and covers a good portion of the old SD-7.   He'll have that seat all decade easily.

I think he challenges Kiggans for the CD in 2024.

Not sure how wise that would be given he underperformed Luria's loss at the CD level meaningfully tonight.

Low turnout special elections for local offices always give weird swings. What matters most is that this is a flip and he now has a springboard to run for congress.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Allegheny county is just one of those areas in the country where the demographics are working hard against the Republicans. It just keeps getting uglier for them with every election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1658664564962074625

Always run like you are a couple points behind. Good for PA Dems taking nothing for granted.

Example #1,983,203 of the PA Dems being an S-tier state party

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It’s really odd how the polls are showing a tied environment, but special elections, which are very indicative of the national environment, show a Democratic landslide.

https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1703128458447008204?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

Based off of… one special election?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nice, and with a turnout disadvantage.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Only on this forum would people spin a flip as bad news for the Democrats. You all have a worse case of Dems in Disarray syndrome than Politico.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems held onto CT HD 155 by 32 points, an 8-point improvement from Biden '20.

Not sure about the status of the NH races.

EDIT: Reps look likely to flip Coos 6 in NH. Should probably discard the race while talking about special election-national environment correlation because of the obvious Republican turnout advantage.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

And that’s that in Pennsylvania. Dems hold the state house and Prokopiac is poised to outperform Biden very heavily.

It was Biden +10 btw.
https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1757571958302986461?s=46

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It’s looking like a 21-point over performance for the Dem in the Oklahoma race.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump +1 district, by the way, so the flip isn’t a huge surprise, but the margin is sure to be eye popping.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump +1 district, by the way. So the flip isn’t a huge surprise, but the margin is sure to be eye popping.

IVF and abortion issues are so toxic for republicans. They want to ban IVF and outlaw contraception which doesn't sit well with most (sane) voters.

Yeah, it's going to be another potent issue for the Democrats. Alabama and federal Republicans both immediately denounced the ALSC's ruling and apparently that wasn't enough.

It also doesn't help their case that the Life at Conception Act, which is a policy priority of the national GOP, explicitly bans IVF in all 50 states. Can't really blame the voters for not trusting them.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems have officially won both of the special elections in Michigan tonight, and thus have held the state House of Representatives.