New Jersey-FDU Clinton +11

[psychprofessor]

It's instructive to see where the race was in the Spring of 2012 - and well, exactly where it is now.

Quinnipiac 4/3-4/9 2012: Obama +9 49/40
Quinnipiac 5/9-5/14 2012: Obama +10 49/39


NJ is safe Clinton.

[psychprofessor]

BUT NEW JERSEY IS THE SWING STATE

Trump losing by 11 would be a better showing than either McCain or Romney.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nj/new_jersey_romney_vs_obama-1912.html

Hillary is polling exactly like Obama was in NJ. Might I add the multiple single digit Quinnipiac polls.

Funny thing, we tend to only remember the end result and not the polling that led up to it. Look at states like NJ, CA and Michigan - all showing closer races than what actually manifested in 2012. I think one of the issues in these blue states is the difficulty pollsters have with Hispanics and AA's. It actually makes me think that Hillary has a fighting chance in AZ and GA if she is polling within a few points as of now.

[psychprofessor]

It's instructive to see where the race was in the Spring of 2012 - and well, exactly where it is now.

Quinnipiac 4/3-4/9 2012: Obama +9 49/40
Quinnipiac 5/9-5/14 2012: Obama +10 49/39


NJ is safe Clinton.

I question your assumption that 2012 polls are "instructive" in 2016. In 2012, the Democratic candidate was an incumbent, which significantly makes that race different from this race; and you must remember that Hurricane Sandy likely caused Obama's ultimate margin of victory over Romney in New Jersey.

Bush came within 5% of New Jersey in a tight race. Trump, who has ties to the Northeast, could feasibly get closer if he runs a great campaign (or Hillary runs a bad campaign).

You can "question" my assumption but all I did was point out that polls at the same time in 2012 showed the race as high single digits or low double digits. The same as it is now - Trump is not winning NJ.