Members of Congress most likely to switch parties

[Orser67]

I'm curious which members of Congress people think are most likely to switch parties. To be clear, I don't think any one Congressman or Senator is likely to switch parties, but I don't think it's implausible that we could see some party switching at some point.

I think Joe Manchin and Angus King (an independent caucusing with the Dems) in the Senate are obvious candidates (esp if the GOP takes the Senate in 2014); both have been talked about a fair amount, and I don't see the point in continuing a discussion on them.

[Orser67]

Just to comment generally, there's a decent Wiki article on the subject (linked below) which posits three reasons for why members of Congress switch parties. 1)The politician feels like he's totally out of step with his party (Jim Jeffords is a good example), 2)the politician wishes to remain in the majority (several Democrats did this after the 1994 elections), and 3)the politician is seeking to avoid a defeat in a primary (Arlen Specter is a recent example), or in a general election (Parker Griffith).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_switching_in_the_United_States#Notable_party_switchers

[Orser67]

I could see a really moderate Republican joining the Democrats, but I don't think it is very likely at all and no names come to mind. It's been five years since Parker Griffith joined (and then left) the GOP.

Calling it unlikely is probably an understatement, but my dream scenario would be for centrists like Charlie Dent, Hanna, LoBiondo, Meehan, et. al to give up on the Republican Party.

[Orser67]

Re 1: The parties are so polarized at this point that there really isn't anyone in either party who is close enough to the center that they'd be "out of step" with the party as a whole.

Responding to points 1 and 3, I think you have a point but I don't fully agree. Yes the parties are much more sorted, making party switching less of a natural ideological move. However, both parties still have centrist wings, and these centrist politicians aren't totally out-of-place in either party. For example, from an ideological perspective, I don't think Susan Collins is really that much more conservative than Mark Pryor. We've also seen party switchers move to the right/left after switching (e.g. Specter), and I would expect the next party-switcher to at least somewhat change their voting behavior.

Responding to point 2, I actually wasn't just talking about 2014, but the near future as well. Not that I would bet on it, but 2016 and 2020 could be realigning elections.

[Orser67]

Here are the people I think are most likely:

Murkowski, Collins, Pryor, Landrieu, Manchin, King

Nick Rahall, John Barrow, Patrick Murphy (FL), David Valadao