Prediction: Young voters will swing hard right the next few cycles

[WalterWhite]

This is an example of what I'm talking about. According to data from "Monitoring the Future", teen boys have always been more right leaning than their female counterparts, but there's been a recent spike in them becoming more conservative, and at a more abrupt rate than teen girls shifting left. As a consequence, on net teenagers are more likely to self-identify conservative as of the most recent survey data.

I will concede this chart is a bit misleading because it excludes people who don't self-identify as either liberal or conservative, but you can still see the general point.

We have seen this sort of data before. The truth is that young men have recently STOPPED becoming more conservative, and young women are CONTINUING to become more liberal.

[WalterWhite]

This is an example of what I'm talking about. According to data from "Monitoring the Future", teen boys have always been more right leaning than their female counterparts, but there's been a recent spike in them becoming more conservative, and at a more abrupt rate than teen girls shifting left. As a consequence, on net teenagers are more likely to self-identify conservative as of the most recent survey data.

I will concede this chart is a bit misleading because it excludes people who don't self-identify as either liberal or conservative, but you can still see the general point.

We have seen this sort of data before. The truth is that young men have recently STOPPED becoming more conservative, and young women are CONTINUING to become more liberal.

I haven't seen much evidence that shows young men have stopped becoming more conservative; if there is probably too soon to tell if that's just a blip in the data or if things will actually stall long term.

I think what I am saying makes sense; young men shifted hard right during the height of the anti-SJW craze, which portrayed feminists as red-haired misandrists, and during #MeToo era because it was portrayed as "anti-male". It was easy to paint feminists as nutjobs back then, so young men bolted right. Now that the anti-SJW craze and the #MeToo movement have died down, these trends have stopped.

[WalterWhite]

In the most general terms, everything I've read about why young voters are voting so overwhelmingly against the GOP these days always quotes these young voters as saying that the modern GOP is very out of step with their social views on black people, gay people, trans people and abortion, and economically with respect to student loans and workers' rights/pay, etc. Unless the GOP makes a huge move to the center on the issues these young voters care about, I do not see this hard right swing happening.

Basically, the GOP needs to become a carbon copy of the Democratic Party to have any appeal to young voters.