Chirac dissolves... in 1995

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I don't see how the right could have repeated 1993, but, at the same time, I can't imagine Chirac losing his majority immediately after having won the presidency and ended a cohabitation.

In the end, I think the right would have won a smaller majority than in 1993 (the right-left divide would have been somewhere between 2002 and 2007), but a majority nonetheless. The PS would have gained the most seats, and the UDF would have lost the most. (Remember that the UDF was in a very bad shape in 1995; it hadn't even managed to field a candidate from its own ranks, and many of its members had supported Chirac over Balladur.) The RPR probably would have netted a few seats.

I wonder whether the FN would have won many seats after Le Pen's strong showing in the presidential race. The MPF would have been another party to watch.

The ramifications past 1995 would have been interesting. A defeat for the PS would not have helped Emmanuelli, to say the least, but would Jospin have been the one to defeat him, or would someone else have run? Would Jospin have lasted five years as first secretary? In 2000, you would have had another legislative election, and, given the way French politics worked under the septennat, the left would have likely taken the National Assembly. Then we would have had a repeat of 1986–1988: a rough, two-year cohabitation setting the stage for a presidential election pitting the incumbent against the prime minister.

In the 1995 presidential debate, Chirac told Jospin that, if Jospin won and dissolved the Assembly, there was no way the left could win a majority, and that there would be at least five more years of cohabitation. Now that would be an interesting scenario. I don't see how a president can lose legislative elections right after his election. Sure, the left wasn't popular in 1995, but the right wasn't popular in 2007, and it still won. (Remember that Sarkozy ran against Chirac and Villepin, and I don't think I need to remind you that Royal was a bad candidate; a generic socialist would have handily defeated a generic UMPer.)

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If the PS prime minister plays his or her cards right, he or she would win. If things are really bad for him, Chirac might not even run (as Mitterrand considered during the first cohabitation).

However, I think the most likely outcome is that the prime minister is as nasty and abrasive towards Chirac, who, like Mitterrand in 1986–1988, distances himself from the government as the prime minister's approvals plummet. I can imagine Chirac winning a 1988-esque victory in 2002. Mitterrand was probably one of his greatest mentors…