"Baucus looks completely solid for re-election," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., which conducted the poll.
The poll shows Baucus leading the top Montana officeholders with an approval rating of 67 percent...
The telephone poll of 625 Montana voters was taken Dec. 17-19 by Mason-Dixon, which has polled for The Gazette since 1990. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Baucus, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, is seeking his sixth six-year Senate term. Through Dec. 7, Baucus had amassed $8.6 million in campaign funds and had $5.3 million left, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
Lange, a state representative and a pipe fitter, has raised $6,166 so far and had $3,364 left on Dec. 7, the center said. Lange entered the race in June.
If the election were held today, according to the poll results, Baucus would beat Lange with 63 percent of the vote to 25 percent, with 12 percent undecided.
Some voters who were polled were also interviewed separately by the Gazette State Bureau and expressed strong feelings about Baucus but knew little about Lange.
Felix Gilbertson, 35, a farmer-rancher who lives 20 miles south of Flaxville in Daniels County, praised Baucus.
"Max returns my calls," he said. "The other joker that was in there (Burns) never returned my calls. I like Max."
Bill Bevis, 66, a retired English professor in Missoula, also had kind words for Baucus.
"I think Max has done a terrific job," Bevis said. "He has stayed in office during an entire generation of this state voting Republican. When Democrats gripe about him, they need to remember that he had to stay in office. He's done a very good job in doing what he can for the progressive center."
But another Democrat, Beatrice Rosenleaf, a semi-retired Anaconda woman, was lukewarm about Baucus, saying: "Sometimes he does good, and sometimes he doesn't. Sometimes, I think he's been back in Washington too long. He's kind of lost touch with the rest of us."
But given that Lange is running against Baucus, Rosenleaf said she'll vote to re-elect the Democratic senator. However, if someone "good" runs against him, the Anaconda woman said she will consider voting for that person.
Jan McPherson, a retired Stevensville woman, offered a similar assessment of Baucus: "I just don't feel good about him right now. We need somebody new in there, for God's sake."
But Nichole Briceno, 30, who works in work force management at a Butte call center, said, "I've always liked Max Baucus. I think he represents us."
Pollsters also asked voters if they recognized the names of the major statewide candidates, and if so, whether they regarded them favorably, unfavorably or neutral.
Poll results showed 57 percent recognized Baucus favorably, 15 percent unfavorably, 27 percent neutral and 1 percent didn't recognize him.
Fifty-eight percent didn't recognize Lange's name, and of those who did, 17 percent had an unfavorable reaction, compared with 8 percent who had a favorable one. Seventeen percent were neutral.
"Nobody knows Lange," said Coker, of Mason-Dixon. "Lange is outside the mainstream political circle."
HELENA - The Gazette State Poll was conducted Dec. 17-19 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., for The Billings Gazette, Montana Standard of Butte, Helena Independent Record, Missoulian and Ravalli Republic.
A total of 625 registered Montana voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All said they regularly vote in state elections.
Pollsters interviewed 316 women, for 51 percent of the sample, and 309 men.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for any subgroup such as a gender sampling.
Those interviewed were selected by random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross section of telephone exchanges was used to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the turnout by county.
Here is the breakdown of the 625 telephone calls for the survey:
• Eastern Montana area, 55 interviews in these 15 counties: Carter, Powder River, Rosebud, Custer, Fallon, Prairie, Wibaux, Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Richland, Roosevelt, Sheridan, Daniels and Valley.
• Billings and southeastern Montana, 125 interviews in these 11 counties: Yellowstone, Treasure, Big Horn, Carbon, Stillwater, Sweet Grass, Wheatland, Golden Valley, Musselshell, Petroleum and Fergus.
• Great Falls and north-central Montana, 105 interviews in these 12 counties: Cascade, Meagher, Judith Basin, Teton, Chouteau, Phillips, Blaine, Hill, Liberty, Toole, Pondera and Glacier.
• Butte, Helena and Bozeman areas, 160 interviews in these 10 counties: Lewis and Clark, Powell, Broadwater, Jefferson, Silver Bow, Deer Lodge, Beaverhead, Madison, Gallatin and Park.
• Missoula and Kalispell areas, 180 interviews in these eight counties: Missoula, Granite, Ravalli, Mineral, Sanders, Lake, Flathead and Lincoln.
When the newspapers finish publishing the stories based on the poll results, copies of the poll results may be purchased from polling company's Web site,
www.mason-dixon.com.
http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2007/12/30/news/state/20-poll.txt
