Northern Ireland Assembly Election, 2022

[beesley]

This May, Northern Ireland will go to the polls for the seventh election for the current incarnation of its legislature.

The last election took place in 2017, and was a snap election called following the resignation of Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness as Deputy First Minister. Under the terms of power sharing, thismeant the end of the executive, and the 2017 election was called (for an assembly smaller in size), in which the DUP remained the largest party by just one seat.

Due to the refusal of Sinn Fein to return to power sharing (for a variety reasons, primarily the prospect of scandal-ridden Arlene Foster as First Minister), no executive was formed, and negotiations stalled and recommenced for a period of three years. Despite this, this was a turbulent time for Northern Ireland due to the ramifications of Brexit, and the Westminster-led legalisation of abortion. The executive was reformed in early 2020.

The DUP's Arlene Foster took office as First Minister for just over a year, until she was ousted as DUP leader. Her successor was Edwin Poots - but he declined to take office as First Minister and nominated his Assembly Colleague Paul Givan. This was not well-received, and while Givan remains First Minister, Poots resigned. His successor, Jeffrey Donaldson MP will lead the party into the election. Polling is scarce (no polls so far this year), but projections now have Sinn Fein in the lead, with the DUP continuing their decline, and the other parties in the executive (the UUP, SDLP and Alliance) holding, or in the case of the Alliance, significantly improving. This could easily change given the volatility of Northern Irish electoral behaviour - as always there are a mixture of short and long term trends. However, the 2019 General Election was the first in which nationalist parties held more seats than unionist parties.

Assembly Elections are conducted via the Single Transferable Vote system in Northern Ireland's 18 constituencies - coterminous with those at Westminster. Each elects 5 MLAs. It might be assumed that DUP and UUP transfer with each other, as do Sinn Fein and SDLP, but that is too scarce a generalisation, and at the last election there was a strong amount of transfer between the UUP, SDLP and Alliance, which did have an effect. Some indications are that that trend may well continue this time.

[Hnv1]

If SF finish first and demand to be first minister what would the unionists parties do? Can that trigger violence? Direct rule is now off the cards with the 2007 agreement right?

[Oryxslayer]

If SF finish first and demand to be first minister what would the unionists parties do? Can that trigger violence? Direct rule is now off the cards with the 2007 agreement right?

If SF finishes first, they'll get said post but the DUP will get other ones under power sharing rules. One expects that if this would occur the Alliance - which despite it's platform pulled significantly more from traditionally Unionist areas in 2019 - would have risen and also get more positions.

Of course that is the theory, no idea if government would be formed at all in practice.

[YL]

If SF finish first and demand to be first minister what would the unionists parties do? Can that trigger violence? Direct rule is now off the cards with the 2007 agreement right?

The rules are weirdly worded: they say that the largest party of the largest designation (i.e. Unionist, Nationalist, Other) gets the First Minister position but then later say that if the largest party overall isn't part of the largest designation the largest party overall gets the First Minister instead.  So SF get the First Minister position if they are the largest party, even if Unionists are still the largest designation.  In that scenario the largest Unionist party get the Deputy First Minister, even if Alliance are the second largest party.

[Hnv1]

If SF finish first and demand to be first minister what would the unionists parties do? Can that trigger violence? Direct rule is now off the cards with the 2007 agreement right?

The rules are weirdly worded: they say that the largest party of the largest designation (i.e. Unionist, Nationalist, Other) gets the First Minister position but then later say that if the largest party overall isn't part of the largest designation the largest party overall gets the First Minister instead.  So SF get the First Minister position if they are the largest party, even if Unionists are still the largest designation.  In that scenario the largest Unionist party get the Deputy First Minister, even if Alliance are the second largest party.

Will the unionist play ball though? Why would they agree to work with SF instead of obstructionism? Especially with a SF PM in the republic is a viable possibility in the future

[YL]

If SF finish first and demand to be first minister what would the unionists parties do? Can that trigger violence? Direct rule is now off the cards with the 2007 agreement right?

The rules are weirdly worded: they say that the largest party of the largest designation (i.e. Unionist, Nationalist, Other) gets the First Minister position but then later say that if the largest party overall isn't part of the largest designation the largest party overall gets the First Minister instead.  So SF get the First Minister position if they are the largest party, even if Unionists are still the largest designation.  In that scenario the largest Unionist party get the Deputy First Minister, even if Alliance are the second largest party.

Will the unionist play ball though? Why would they agree to work with SF instead of obstructionism? Especially with a SF PM in the republic is a viable possibility in the future

Very probably not.

[Oryxslayer]

If SF finish first and demand to be first minister what would the unionists parties do? Can that trigger violence? Direct rule is now off the cards with the 2007 agreement right?

The rules are weirdly worded: they say that the largest party of the largest designation (i.e. Unionist, Nationalist, Other) gets the First Minister position but then later say that if the largest party overall isn't part of the largest designation the largest party overall gets the First Minister instead.  So SF get the First Minister position if they are the largest party, even if Unionists are still the largest designation.  In that scenario the largest Unionist party get the Deputy First Minister, even if Alliance are the second largest party.

Will the unionist play ball though? Why would they agree to work with SF instead of obstructionism? Especially with a SF PM in the republic is a viable possibility in the future

Very probably not.

Yep, if SF are to be granted the First Minister post because the DUP vote partially dispersed then I would expect the DUP to prefer another era of direct rule.

[YL]

Some preliminary constituency by constituency thoughts, starting in Belfast and going roughly clockwise.  Numbers given are those from the last Assembly election; links are to Nicholas Whyte's Northern Ireland elections site which has the full details of all elections in NI.

Belfast North

2 SF, 2 DUP, 1 SDLP

An SF gain in the General Election, but one of those Nationalist seats could be vulnerable to Alliance, who weren't far off last time.

Belfast West

4 SF, 1 PBP

The SDLP might have a chance here if they stay in long enough to pick up transfers.  The PBP vote fell quite sharply last time and their seat doesn't look safe.  With only 5 seats I think a Unionist seat is unlikely.

Belfast South

1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 SF, 1 Green

The SDLP's storming performance in the General Election might suggest the chance of a gain, though it's clear there was a lot of tactical voting.  There might also be a chance of the UUP getting a seat back if they have a good election.  In either case it's the Green seat which looks most vulnerable.

Belfast East

2 Alliance, 2 DUP, 1 UUP

This looks quite likely to be a "no change".  Alliance would need to do quite a bit better than in the General Election to get a third seat.

North Down

2 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 1 Green

Alliance's General Election gain suggests a second seat might be on the cards here, but it's not clear where it would come from; three "Other" seats and only two Unionists would be a striking result if it happened, but the General Election results still give three Unionist quotas (counting the Conservative).  Alex Easton, elected as DUP and their 2019 Westminster candidate, has left the party, not suggesting a particularly happy DUP ship.

Strangford

3 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP

The third DUP seat looks vulnerable here: they were well short of three quotas last time.  Based on the General Election result Alliance might well get a second seat; alternatively the SDLP might finally win one or the UUP might get a second seat back.  Or if TUV are doing much better than in the past this would be one of the more likely breakthroughs.

South Down

2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP

Alliance did quite well last time and might have a chance, with the SDLP most vulnerable.  The DUP MLA, Jim Wells, has fallen out with the party and is now and Independent Unionist; there might be some ramifications of that as far as who gets the Unionist seat is concernced.

Lagan Valley

2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 SDLP

An interesting constituency as discussed with three high profile DUP figures now Donaldson is moving from Westminster.  The SDLP seat must be vulnerable -- it was only won last time with some surprisingly favourable transfers -- but Alliance's General Election performance suggests that if it is lost it's probably going to a second Alliance candidate.

Upper Bann

2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP

I suspect no change is most likely here; Alliance were some way off last time.  If they did challenge then I guess the second DUP seat would be most vulnerable, though the SDLP aren't safe either.

Newry & Armagh

3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP

This is likely to continue as 4 Nationalists and 1 Unionist, so the main question is whether the DUP seat might be vulnerable to the UUP in one of the latter's better areas.

Fermanagh & South Tyrone

3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP

The total Nationalist vote remains a little ahead of the total Unionist vote, and "Other" parties remain weak, so 3 Nationalists and 2 Unionists remains the likely outcome.  I think the most likely change here is the SDLP taking the third SF seat back, but even that may not be very likely. 

West Tyrone

3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP

SF had a rather underwhelming result in the General Election and Alliance a surprisingly good one for west of the Bann.  If Alliance do enough on first preferences to stay in contention long enough to pick up some transfers they might have a chance, and this constituency has surprised before.

Mid Ulster

3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP

Usually the most boring constituency in Assembly elections; the situation is quite similar to that in West Tyrone, but with Alliance a bit further back and SF's third seat more secure.

Foyle

2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP

The SDLP obliterated SF in the General Election with a near 20% swing; there were no doubt some special circumstances there and a bit of tactical voting, but it does suggest that the SDLP will be looking for a gain here.  The Unionist seat is beginning to look a little vulnerable, with the Unionist total being well below a quota in the General Election; no doubt this was partly because of tactical voting, but the DUP seat wasn't that comfortable in the last Assembly election either.

East Londonderry

2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Ind U

This is definitely an Alliance opportunity based on the General Election result.  I suspect the DUP are most vulnerable assuming Claire Sugden (Ind U) stands again.  However, she probably fishes in the same pool as Alliance to some extent, so she might make an Alliance gain less likely.

North Antrim

2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 TUV, 1 UUP

Alliance got nearly 15% in the General Election which would put them in contention here too, though it's not clear who might lose out and I suspect they might fall just short.  The SF seat could be a little vulnerable if SDLP transfers broke towards Alliance; otherwise it might be the UUP at most risk, though if things are really, really going wrong for the DUP their second seat could be at risk in the Paisley heartland.

East Antrim

2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance

This is another possible Alliance gain, with 27% in the General Election and plenty of possible transfers from Nationalist parties unlikely to win a seat themselves.  The DUP have usually been way ahead of the UUP here in recent elections so the latter look most vulnerable.

South Antrim

2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance

The second DUP seat could be vulnerable if they do particularly badly, but no other party looks particularly well placed to take it so I suspect no change is most likely here.

[Hnv1]

If SF finish first and demand to be first minister what would the unionists parties do? Can that trigger violence? Direct rule is now off the cards with the 2007 agreement right?

The rules are weirdly worded: they say that the largest party of the largest designation (i.e. Unionist, Nationalist, Other) gets the First Minister position but then later say that if the largest party overall isn't part of the largest designation the largest party overall gets the First Minister instead.  So SF get the First Minister position if they are the largest party, even if Unionists are still the largest designation.  In that scenario the largest Unionist party get the Deputy First Minister, even if Alliance are the second largest party.

Will the unionist play ball though? Why would they agree to work with SF instead of obstructionism? Especially with a SF PM in the republic is a viable possibility in the future

Very probably not.

Yep, if SF are to be granted the First Minister post because the DUP vote partially dispersed then I would expect the DUP to prefer another era of direct rule.

Direct rule will require overturning the Northern Ireland (St Andrews Agreement) Act 2006 in Westminster and breaching the agreement with the ROI. Not sure the UK government would want to go there at the moment.

[Oryxslayer]

If SF finish first and demand to be first minister what would the unionists parties do? Can that trigger violence? Direct rule is now off the cards with the 2007 agreement right?

The rules are weirdly worded: they say that the largest party of the largest designation (i.e. Unionist, Nationalist, Other) gets the First Minister position but then later say that if the largest party overall isn't part of the largest designation the largest party overall gets the First Minister instead.  So SF get the First Minister position if they are the largest party, even if Unionists are still the largest designation.  In that scenario the largest Unionist party get the Deputy First Minister, even if Alliance are the second largest party.

Will the unionist play ball though? Why would they agree to work with SF instead of obstructionism? Especially with a SF PM in the republic is a viable possibility in the future

Very probably not.

Yep, if SF are to be granted the First Minister post because the DUP vote partially dispersed then I would expect the DUP to prefer another era of direct rule.

Direct rule will require overturning the Northern Ireland (St Andrews Agreement) Act 2006 in Westminster and breaching the agreement with the ROI. Not sure the UK government would want to go there at the moment.

Of course they won't.  But the 2017-2020 period was direct rule in all but name, and that was facilitated by one party simply refusing to cooperate.  Obviously this period wasn't all sunshine and roses: stagnation set in during a period of national crisis.

Now of course for the DUP this period was initially tolerable since their MPs could guide the conservative coalition government when necessary,  but any new breakdown would be under first Tory majority then likely a Labour government.  But if the DUP commits itself to not letting SF take the top post, there is no price too high to they won't be willing to pay. This could begin a long term crisis for the region,  since it would end the coalition system in all but name and not provide any alternative.

[YL]

LucidTalk poll:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1484869473572167680

Compared with the 2017 election, the DUP are down 11 percentage points, SF actually down 3, UUP up 1, Alliance up 5, SDLP down 1, TUV up 9.

[YL]

Edwin Poots, briefly DUP leader, and one of the three high profile DUP figures in Lagan Valley (where there are unlikely to be three DUP seats) tried to get selected for South Down.

He failed.

[CumbrianLefty]

He may yet end up standing in the Lagan Valley byelection for Westminster.

[Coldstream]

Interesting that the polling breaks down:

Nationalist: SF 25 + SDLP 11 + PBP 1 = 37
Unionist: DUP 17 + UUP 14 + TUV 12 = 43
Neither: Alliance 14 Green 3 = 17

So there’s more support for the unionists still, it’s just the DUP’s incompetence is costing them support to the TUV and leaving Sinn Fein in first.

Although, I still find it hard to see the TUV - essentially a one man party - getting 12% of the vote. I’d expect at least some of that will come back to the DUP.

[beesley]

Interesting that the polling breaks down:

Nationalist: SF 25 + SDLP 11 + PBP 1 = 37
Unionist: DUP 17 + UUP 14 + TUV 12 = 43
Neither: Alliance 14 Green 3 = 17

So there’s more support for the unionists still, it’s just the DUP’s incompetence is costing them support to the TUV and leaving Sinn Fein in first.

Although, I still find it hard to see the TUV - essentially a one man party - getting 12% of the vote. I’d expect at least some of that will come back to the DUP.

Given the localised nature of Assembly campaigns, due to vote balancing, perhaps a localised 'Michelle O'Neill could be First Minister' might help.

Also, the surge needs to actually materialise in areas way beyond their normal  areas - they only have councillors on two councils if I'm not mistaken.

[YL]

Yes, I'm rather sceptical that the TUV will do as well as their current polling in the end.  But note that if they did, then almost every constituency which currently has two or more DUP MLAs would see one of them looking vulnerable to the TUV, including Lagan Valley.

Meanwhile, theres' been more fun in the South Down DUP with the local chair backing Poots and saying he won't campaign for Diane Forsythe: Belfast Telegraph story

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1489166613458923524?s=20&t=R_N_awIQSg...

If there was a UK equivalent to the nuclear option, this might be it. Note that legislation under scrutiny in Parliament at the moment, if passed, would mean that the Assembly Election would still take place this May and no earlier. But it does mean the Executive would be in limbo until that point.

In terms of election ramifications, this might regalvanise the DUP/TUV end of politics but don't assume UUP or Alliance voters will take that kindly to it.

[patzer]

My predictions:
North Antrim: DUP 2, TUV 1, UUP 1, SF 1 (no change)
East Antrim: ALL 2 (+1), DUP 1 (-1), UUP 1 (-1), TUV 1 (+1)
South Antrim: DUP 1 (-1), TUV 1 (+1), UUP 1, SF 1, ALL 1
Belfast North: SF 2, DUP 1 (-1), TUV 1 (+1), ALL 1 (+1), SDLP 0 (-1)
Belfast West: SF 4, PBP 1 (no change)
Belfast South: SF 1, SDLP 1, ALL 1, GRN 1, DUP 1 (no change)
Belfast East: ALL 2, DUP 1 (-1), TUV 1 (+1), UUP 1
North Down: DUP 1 (-1), TUV 1 (+1), UUP 1, ALL 1, GRN 1
Strangford: ALL 2 (+1), DUP 1 (-2), UUP 1, TUV 1 (+1)
Lagan Valley: DUP 1 (-1), TUV 1 (+1), UUP 1, ALL 1, SDLP 1
Upper Bann: DUP 1 (-1), TUV 1 (+1), UUP 1, SF 1, SDLP 1
South Down: SF 2, SDLP 2, ALL 1 (+1), DUP 0 (-1)
Newry and Armagh: SF 3, SDLP 1, UUP 1 (+1), DUP 0 (-1)
Fermanagh and Südtyrone: SF 2 (-1), DUP 1, UUP 1, SDLP 1 (+1)
West Tyrone: SF 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1 (no change)
Mid Ulster: SF 3, SDLP 1, UUP 1 (+1), DUP 0 (-1)
Foyle: SF 2, SDLP 2, DUP 1 (no change)
East Londonderry: Ind 1, DUP 1 (-1), TUV 1 (+1) SF 1, SDLP 1

Total: SF 26 (-1), DUP 15 (-13), ALL 12 (+4), SDLP 12 (=), UUP 11 (+1), TUV 10 (+9), GRN 2 (=), PBP 1 (=), Ind 1 (=)

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/BenKellyTweets/status/1493142932530081793?t=jeFHyWZlXtcOlE2b...

First non LucidTalk/conventional poll in a while. Decline for the DUP particularly but also for Sinn Fein and the SDLP. Big increase for Alliance, Greens and TUV and increase within the MOE for the UUP. But this is first preference intention and doesn't take into account transfers and local races.

More interesting is that hardly anyone said the NI protocol was their top issue; health was top among all communities.

[YL]

TUV doing noticeably less well than in LucidTalk, though.  On those figures I think they'd be struggling to make a breakthrough outside of North Antrim.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The Green figure is not very believable.

[beesley]

TUV doing noticeably less well than in LucidTalk, though.  On those figures I think they'd be struggling to make a breakthrough outside of North Antrim.

According to someone on VoteUK, LucidTalk uses a panel rather than a random sample, but understandably it's nowhere near the size of say, YouGov, so there's some logical issues there.
 

[CumbrianLefty]

The Green figure is not very believable.

And they are likely fishing in the Alliance and SDLP pools mostly, so....

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/steviemac1122/status/1495391710255460354?s=20&t=uIgwtGxa...

Crossposting just to say that DUP MLA and presumptive candidate for South Belfast has died aged 39.

[YL]

The DUP are co-opting Edwin Poots to the Belfast South seat left vacant by the death of Christopher Stalford.  On the face of it, this seems a bit odd, as Poots is of course already an MLA for Lagan Valley and so this just moves the vacancy, but of course this solves the three-high-profile-candidates-for-probably-only-two-seats problem the DUP had in Lagan Valley.

I'm not sure Poots's religious conservatism is the best fit for Belfast South even in DUP terms, but probably the seat is reasonably secure.