Do you buy that Georgia is gone for Biden?

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Not at all.

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Definitely not. I blame Trump’s good polling numbers there on bad black samples.

Bad black samples in Georgia. Bad black samples in Michigan. Bad black samples in every national poll. Interesting.

Black vote is definitely shifting right but as I stated in another thread this is less likely to have an impact in Georgia, as the Black voters who will move towards Trump the most are urban or rural, and working class. Georgia is filled to the brim with middle to upper middle class suburban Black communities, not to mention a much larger than average level of white people with a college degree. College whites are going to swing towards Biden more than any other group.

Michigan and Wisconsin will be a bigger problem for Biden.

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Definitely not. I blame Trump’s good polling numbers there on bad black samples.

Bad black samples in Georgia. Bad black samples in Michigan. Bad black samples in every national poll. Interesting.

Black vote is definitely shifting right but as I stated in another thread this is less likely to have an impact in Georgia, as the Black voters who will move towards Trump the most are urban or rural, and working class. Georgia is filled to the brim with middle to upper middle class suburban Black communities, not to mention a much larger than average level of white people with a college degree. College whites are going to swing towards Biden more than any other group.

Michigan and Wisconsin will be a bigger problem for Biden.

What about Atlanta proper and DeKalb county? Or the black belt?

Atlanta proper will shift a couple points towards Trump. DeKalb will hold steady with Trump doing a bit better in poorer Black areas, the same in wealthier Black areas, and worse in whiter areas like Dunwoody.

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Definitely not. I blame Trump’s good polling numbers there on bad black samples.

Bad black samples in Georgia. Bad black samples in Michigan. Bad black samples in every national poll. Interesting.

Black vote is definitely shifting right but as I stated in another thread this is less likely to have an impact in Georgia, as the Black voters who will move towards Trump the most are urban or rural, and working class. Georgia is filled to the brim with middle to upper middle class suburban Black communities, not to mention a much larger than average level of white people with a college degree. College whites are going to swing towards Biden more than any other group.

Michigan and Wisconsin will be a bigger problem for Biden.

Why would these Black voters suddenly shift to Trump this time around? Frankly, all of the reasons I’ve heard rely on some pretty nasty stereotypes about Black people.

Part of broader trends. In country after country we are seeing younger voters organize more by gender and less by race.

Plus poll after poll is showing improvement with Black voters. It's hard to complain about bad sampling when literally every poll shows this, just as almost every poll shows Biden improving with seniors. Mind you, I think the shift will be small, but not negligible. Here's a repost from a discussion we had a few weeks ago about this.

Seems a bit low.

wow, I'm shocked you think that! *sarcasm*

This is about how well Warnock did against Herschel Walker with Black voters in 2022. I don't know if Biden will do that well, but he could come close

Warnock was literally the perfect candidate for Georgia and Walker was a terrible, terrible opponent with countless scandals. Warnock put up almost Obama numbers in Black neighborhoods. But Georgia's Black population, especially in East Atlanta and the Atlanta suburbs is much more similar to Maryland's (higher income, more educated), and less similar to more heavily working class Black communities like those in the Philly or Detroit area. Those working class, more hardscrabble Black voters are who Trump is more likely to pull from, not educated suburbanites in Henry or Douglas county. Hell, even in 2020, when Trump did better than before in most Black precincts, there were some mostly Black upper middle income areas, like far East DeKalb and the PG periphery, where he declined even from 2016.

Can you imagine if Red avatars on here were constantly predicting that white evangelicals were about to swing massively to the Democrats? People would rightfully laugh them off the forum.

That's how the "Trump will realign Black voters to the Republicans" theory sounds to me

I certainly do not think there will be a massive realignment, but in a close election it would not take much to shift the balance. And white Evangelicals all share a specific form of Christianity. Black Americans are just as ideologically diverse as the white population, especially the younger generations. I think we will continue to see racial depolarization, and I think Trump could hit 15% with the Black vote. I don't think it would be out of the question to see him hit 25% with Black men under age 50. The question is, will Biden see gains with white voters, especially more educated and older white voters? Some signs point to yes.