Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Don't know why she's calling it for December when just a few weeks earlier other states head to the polls...

Probably the result of state law regarding the amount of time to exist between a primary and a primary runoff, and between a primary runoff and a general.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What is the point of this? It seems like a waste of money. Why not just hold the special election in November 2018?

Allowing an unelected individual to be in the Senate without having to win an election for more than 18 months lacks proper respect for the will of the voters.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moore is running. For Senate.

As much as I would love to see Roy Moore in the Senate, I don't want to wind up with a competitive race in Alabama of all places

It's Alabama. He can't lose the GE.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Does this guy have a notable chance of doing better than Generic D against someone besides Moore?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Filing deadline has passed.

If I was in the democratic party, I would work behind the scenes to get Sessions to run as an independent candidate, which I imagine is still possible, and then hope for a split in the GOP vote that allows whoever the dems nominate to win.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Do you guys think that if Doug Jones and Roy Moore emerge as the nominees, this race could end up somewhat resembling Massachusetts 2010? It would give Democrats a pickup that they could hold just long enough that they have a slightly less steep hill to climb in 2018, and when they likely lose the seat in 2020, they will have picked up seats elsewhere.

The early polls(not that they're all that telling at this point in time) show it surprisingly close(at least for Alabama) and I think this could end up like a MA 2010 redux.

No, Roy Moore is clearly not Martha Coakley in terms of campaigning ability. And even if it did, it just means that democrats don't need a three-way in Utah. They'd still have to hold every seat they have and pick up NV/AZ, which is an extremely difficult path.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Once polls close, results will be covered at the topic linked below:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261809.0

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results coverage: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=261809.1025;num_replies=1035

First results coming in shortly.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If I were the Jones campaign, I'd try to quietly contact as many Hillary voters as I can, and try to increase black turnout as much as possible, perhaps through church networks. Winning over Republicans is a fool's errand.

Not enough democrats in the state to win based on that alone.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If I were the Jones campaign, I'd try to quietly contact as many Hillary voters as I can, and try to increase black turnout as much as possible, perhaps through church networks. Winning over Republicans is a fool's errand.

Not enough democrats in the state to win based on that alone.

This logic would have doomed Scott Brown in 2010. He won because a ridiculous number of Dems stayed home while he romped among Indies.

Not saying I'd bet against Moore, but that route exists. Recall that Dems won MS-1, AL-2, and AL-5 in living memory amid terrible conditions for Republicans.

Didn't Brown get like 20% of Republicans though (in 2010)? That's double the normal 10% crossover on either side.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Didn't Brown get like 20% of Republicans though (in 2010)? That's double the normal 10% crossover on either side.

You mean Democrats?

Yes

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moore has never won the Supreme Court Election by a particularly impressive margin, so I imagine Jones would have a shot if Moore is the nominee here. But let's be realistic, the establishment will get its way - Strange wins runoff 52-48 or so and wins the general in a cakewalk.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moore has never won the Supreme Court Election by a particularly impressive margin, so I imagine Jones would have a shot if Moore is the nominee here. But let's be realistic, the establishment will get its way - Strange wins runoff 52-48 or so and wins the general in a cakewalk.

The establishment didn't get it's way in the presidential primary, so who's to say they willt get their preferred option here?

The overthrow of the establishment in '16 was fueled by Trump, but in this case, Trump is supporting the establishment's goals.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Trump actually decides to sit back and let Moore win the runoff, that only strengthens the case for his impeachment.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Trump actually decides to sit back and let Moore win the runoff, that only strengthens the case for his impeachment.

That's silly.  What's impeachable about it?  Moore is certainly a terrible choice for Senator, but if the people of Alabama vote for him, then he's lawfully entitled to the seat. 

I am saying that if Trump withdraws his support for Strange, and Moore is elected, then it is another reason to impeach Trump.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, there we have it. Moore gets his and Pittman's voters, and Strange gets the balance. Result: Strange wins Runoff 54-46.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, there we have it. Moore gets his and Pittman's voters, and Strange gets the balance. Result: Strange wins Runoff 54-46.

again.

why would brooks voters vote for Strange?

Both are establishment republicans.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, there we have it. Moore gets his and Pittman's voters, and Strange gets the balance. Result: Strange wins Runoff 54-46.

again.

why would brooks voters vote for Strange?

Both are establishment republicans.

The term "establishment" means nothing if you are going to use it to refer to a member of the Freedom Caucus.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA BROOKS AN ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICAN

i mean do you read what you're typing

Brooks is a Cruz-wing Republican who said that there was a "War on Whites". He primaried an incumbent. Brooks is anti-establishment, just as anti-establishment as Roy Moore.

I have confidence in the sanity of the Alabama Republicans who did not vote for Moore or Pittman in the primary. While both Rs are terrible, Strange is clearly less terrible.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bannon is supporting Judge Moore.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/28/bannon-moore-alabama-senate-trump-242120

Racist endorses Racist. News at 11.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I just got an email that the National Organization for Marriage has endorsed Roy Moore, not that that should come as a shock

What does the National Organization for Marriage even do now that SSM is settled law?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mitch McConnell pours more money into Luther Strange campaign

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Uuuggghhh. I hope this doesn't help him. He needs to go. I hope the voters still remember the shady circumstances of the appointment.
#NeverStrange

Will you support Jones if Strange is the nominee?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Uuuggghhh. I hope this doesn't help him. He needs to go. I hope the voters still remember the shady circumstances of the appointment.
#NeverStrange

The fact that Strange is outspending Moore 15 to 1 and his "best" poll is still showing him trailing Moore by 2 should tell you all you need to know about his supposed "electability" in the general election.

If Strange isn't electable in a GE in Alabama, then Moore isn't either.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Roy Moore doesn't seem to know what DACA and DREAMers are.

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http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/roy-moore-leading-candidate-in-alabama-senate-race-doesnt-know-what-daca-is/article/2633200

Well, say hello to our general election matchup:

 

vs.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It will be in the general if Moore is somehow the nominee, but it's not advantageous for Strange to bring it up in the primary - R primary voters either think more highly of Moore because of the explusions, or don't care either way.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bret Baier doesn't want to give Jones any leverage. If Strange was safe in the primary, I could see Baier bringing up ExecutionGate to laugh at Moore even more, but given that there is a significant risk of Moore being nominated, representatives of the GOP must avoid criticizing him to avoid helping Jones gain support.