How Democrats Fooled California’s Redistricting Commission (user search)
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  How Democrats Fooled California’s Redistricting Commission (search mode)
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Author Topic: How Democrats Fooled California’s Redistricting Commission  (Read 32417 times)
redcommander
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« on: December 21, 2011, 08:03:58 PM »

It doesn't really matter too much. Dems are still vulnerable to losing seats in a wave election under the new lines.
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redcommander
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« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2011, 01:39:14 AM »

It doesn't really matter too much. Dems are still vulnerable to losing seats in a wave election under the new lines.

There's no evidence that there will ever be such an election.

Sure thing. Democrats are going to continue to win elections in California, and Californians are going to continue to put up with all the craziness the loons who dominate the party put into law. Roll Eyes The redistricting gives Republicans excellent shots of making net gains in the Congressional delegation and State Assembly.
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redcommander
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« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2011, 02:31:17 AM »

It doesn't really matter too much. Dems are still vulnerable to losing seats in a wave election under the new lines.

There's no evidence that there will ever be such an election.

Sure thing. Democrats are going to continue to win elections in California, and Californians are going to continue to put up with all the craziness the loons who dominate the party put into law. Roll Eyes The redistricting gives Republicans excellent shots of making net gains in the Congressional delegation and State Assembly.

It's been that way since the election of 1996. Last year, in the midst of a huge Republican wave, the California Republicans made no gains whatsoever. You tell me when it's coming.

This is the reason no wave hit last year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_congressional_districts#2002:_Bipartisan_gerrymandering
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redcommander
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« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2011, 03:16:24 AM »

And just to follow up on my response to redcommander, I think CA republicans are comfortable with the current situation where they can do whatever they want with more than 33% of the chamber. That is why they are so up in arms over this map, since their guaranteed seats are vanishing. They don't care there are going to be more Dems who can be targeted since they are not interested in actually winning an election and controlling the chamber. They still want to hold views more appropriate for Oklahoma instead of actually competing in California.

I wouldn't say the party is as right as it is in Oklahoma, but I would say they aren't doing a good job at trying to expand themselves. The first thing they need to do is rebuild their bench in the next election. Start with shoring up any incumbents that are vulnerable from redistricting, and target the most marginal seats that they pick up from Democrats. That could possibly put them up to around 30-32 in the State Assembly. A poor performance still, but an improvement over the 28 they hold now. In the short term, the party just doesn't have a wide enough pool of potential candidates or strong enough registration numbers and GOTV support to make headway into LA and most of Northern California. If the party starts working towards improving upon that, perhaps by the end of the decade it will be a lot stronger. Republicans don't necessarily need to moderate their positions, but they do need to soften the rhetoric and fear mongering, and go out of their comfort zone to at least try and win over voters. It's necessary now for them to stop cowering in the corner with their safe gerrymandered districts disappearing, and learn how to compete again in the state.
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