France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cahuzac has resigned as an MNA. By-election incoming soon, I guess.

Wait, won't he be replaced by his "suppléant"?

Deputies are replaced by their suppléant if they die in office, if they enter cabinet, joins the ConCon (or becomes Défenseur des droits) or has a governmental 'mission' (usually some political bullsh**t) lasting over 6 months.

Since the 2008 constitutional reform, a cabinet minister who leaves cabinet no longer needs to go through a by-election if he wants to reclaim his seat as deputy - he/she automatically regains it from the suppléant. In this case, Cahuzac (like Boutin when she left cabinet) chose not to reclaim his seat, so he resigned and there will be a by-election within 3 months.

Well, he's from the Lot, so I assume his seat is safe, right?

Oh sh*t, it's Lot-et-Garronne.... So right-wing pickup likely.

[windjammer]

Rightwingers make me sick with this scandal. Under Sarkozy, there were much more scandals. They should validate Sarkozy budget campaign's before speaking.

[Hash]

God, the UMP is even more disgusting and repulsive - trying to use the Boston tragedies to play political games and filibuster gay marriage.

http://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article/2013/04/16/attentats-de-boston-wauquiez-veut-reporter-le-debat-sur-le-mariage-gay_3160525_3222.html

Guys, my friend's cat is sick these days. Let's just cancel gay marriage and care for the cat ok?

[Zanas]

Well, he's from the Lot, so I assume his seat is safe, right?

Oh sh*t, it's Lot-et-Garronne.... So right-wing pickup likely.

Yeah I don't know. Granted, Lot-et-Garonne has been consistently quite swingy the last decades, but the PS in the 3rd constituency's runoffs has gone from 48% in 2002 (which was not so bad in that context), to 52% in 2007, to a large 61% in 2012. It polled 47% in the first round last year. So it seems to have conquered quite a voting base, and I'm not sure it will shrink enough to not win this one.

Plus, in 2012 UMP was at 27% and FN at 16%. In Lot-et-Garonne and with Copé-Fillon sh**t, you can expect this gap to shrink...

In the event that FN tops UMP, PS wins it, but not so easily. I'd say a 54-46.

In the event we have a classic PS-UMP runoff, say with PS polling 32%, EELV 3% (2 in 2012) and FG 8% (4.5% in 2012), I can see a UMP victory, but not so sure. Still, FN voters in Lot-et-Garonne are more likely to transfer to UMP in the secound round than say, in Moselle or Nord, so I guess UMP wins it 52-48.

But we cannot rule out the possibility that there has been sociological changes around Villeneuve-sur-Lot in the past 10 years that make the constituency lean clearly left nowadays, and so the PS could as well retain a good 36-40 in the first round, with a few reserves for the runoff, and end keeping it 53-47.

Haaash ? You hadn't covered Lot-et-Garonne last year, so I had to completely improvise that one. Am I right ?

I used this btw : http://www.atlaspol.com/AQ/lot-et-garonne.htm
Quite useful sometimes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, looking at past results it seems like a left-leaning swing seat. However, if we judge by previous by-election results, I could easily see the right winning there.

[RogueBeaver]

Some polls: in a hypothetical rematch Sarko leads the first round with 30% and Flamby tied with Le Pen at 22. Another poll has him beating Flamby 53-47 in the runoff with a 27-23-21 first round. Then there's stuff on Panzergirl.

http://www.rfi.fr/france/20130418-sondage-marine-le-pen-ex-aequo-hollande-premier-tour-sarkozy-devant

http://www.harrisinteractive.fr/news/2013/Results_HIFR_LCP_15042013.pdf

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2013/04/18/01002-20130418ARTFIG00649-hollande-la-deception-un-an-apres.php

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course.

Anyway, if I heard correctly final vote on the gay marriage bill will be on Tuesday.

[You kip if you want to...]

Some polls: in a hypothetical rematch Sarko leads the first round with 30% and Flamby tied with Le Pen at 22. Another poll has him beating Flamby 53-47 in the runoff with a 27-23-21 first round. Then there's stuff on Panzergirl.

Better than I'd expect actually for Hollande. Actually shocked MLP's that low.

Also, as if it's already been a year since the présidentielle.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Poison Dwarf latest: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/19/french-inquiry-gaddafi-sarkozy-2007-campaign

[Antonio the Sixth]

Poison Dwarf latest: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/19/french-inquiry-gaddafi-sarkozy-2007-campaign

ROFL

[RogueBeaver]

The Gaddafi thing was first reported last year or the year before IIRC, but good that they're getting to the bottom of it. Didn't Libya have Rafales on order shortly before the war began?

[Hash]

If anybody cares, here are the details of the presidential re-run polls:

Ifop, change to October 2012 poll
Poison Dwarf (UMP) 30% (+0.5%)
Flanby (PS) 22% (-6%)
Panzergirl (FN) 22% (+2.5%)
Mélenchon (FG) 11% (+1%)
Bayrou (MoDem) 10% (+3%)
NDA (DLR) 2% (nc)
Joly (EELV) 1.5% (-0.5%)
Poutou (NPA) 1% (-0.5%)
Arthaud (LO) 0.5% (nc)

http://ifop.fr/media/poll/2222-1-study_file.pdf

OpinionWay
Poison Dwarf (UMP) 28%
Flanby (PS) 23%
Panzergirl (FN) 21%
Mélenchon (FG) 11%
Bayrou (MoDem) 11%
Joly (EELV) 3%
NDA (DLR) 2%
Poutou (NPA) 0.5%
Arthaud (LO) 0.5%

Poison Dwarf (UMP) 53%
Flanby (PS) 47%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/OpinionwayHollandeunan.pdf

In other news, Flanby has hit a new record low in the Ifop tracker: 74% dissatisfied, 25% satisfied (-6). This is apparently a record low for any President, at any time, in Ifop's trackers. Though this is not (yet) an historic record low for all trackers, however: Sofres had Chirac at 19% approvals at one point in 2006. 25% is the lowest Flanby has been in any poll.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If anybody cares, here are the details of the presidential re-run polls:

Ifop, change to October 2012 poll
Poison Dwarf (UMP) 30% (+0.5%)
Flanby (PS) 22% (-6%)
Panzergirl (FN) 22% (+2.5%)
Mélenchon (FG) 11% (+1%)
Bayrou (MoDem) 10% (+3%)
NDA (DLR) 2% (nc)
Joly (EELV) 1.5% (-0.5%)
Poutou (NPA) 1% (-0.5%)
Arthaud (LO) 0.5% (nc)

http://ifop.fr/media/poll/2222-1-study_file.pdf

OpinionWay
Poison Dwarf (UMP) 28%
Flanby (PS) 23%
Panzergirl (FN) 21%
Mélenchon (FG) 11%
Bayrou (MoDem) 11%
Joly (EELV) 3%
NDA (DLR) 2%
Poutou (NPA) 0.5%
Arthaud (LO) 0.5%

Poison Dwarf (UMP) 53%
Flanby (PS) 47%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/OpinionwayHollandeunan.pdf

In other news, Flanby has hit a new record low in the Ifop tracker: 74% dissatisfied, 25% satisfied (-6). This is apparently a record low for any President, at any time, in Ifop's trackers. Though this is not (yet) an historic record low for all trackers, however: Sofres had Chirac at 19% approvals at one point in 2006. 25% is the lowest Flanby has been in any poll.

Failure is a failure.

[RogueBeaver]

PS insulting Merkel in a policy paper, calling her "selfish" and the "chancellor of austerity", saying the EU is now an Anglo-German cabal (Anglo-German ultraliberalism?), etc. LOL Flanby.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/26/france-socialist-party-german-chancellor

[MaxQue]

PS insulting Merkel in a policy paper, calling her "selfish" and the "chancellor of austerity", saying the EU is now an Anglo-German cabal (Anglo-German ultraliberalism?), etc. LOL Flanby.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/26/france-socialist-party-german-chancellor

Well, they are right about Merkel, but the Anglo-German plot is ridiculous.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Well that makes me like PS a bit more. Just a bit.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Haven't heard about the story firsthand, but I feel like the Guardian's presentation of it is a bit excessive and unfair. Quoting from the text directly:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

With a few nuances, I'd fully agree with that.

[Leftbehind]

Well that makes me like PS a bit more. Just a bit.

[Hash]

More of the same bullsh**t from the PS. They've always said the opposite of what they've actually done in practice, since 1945 at least.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

More of the same bullsh**t from the PS. They've always said the opposite of what they've actually done in practice, since 1945 at least.

[Hash]

More of the same bullsh**t from the PS. They've always said the opposite of what they've actually done in practice, since 1945 at least.

That's the classic example, of course. And it should be brought up every now and again to remind people.

[You kip if you want to...]

PS insulting Merkel in a policy paper, calling her "selfish" and the "chancellor of austerity", saying the EU is now an Anglo-German cabal (Anglo-German ultraliberalism?), etc. LOL Flanby.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/26/france-socialist-party-german-chancellor

What? Maybe it's just the British media, but haven't the French been far more lovey-dovey than David Cameron has been to Merkel?

[Hash]

Mr. Swiss Bank Accounts (Cahuzac) is thinking about running in the by-election in his old seat.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/05/07/le-ps-designe-son-candidat-dans-le-lot-et-garonne-pour-succeder-a-cahuzac_3172081_823448.html

"Aucune décision prise. Certains parlent pour moi sans mandat pour cela. Et je constate une forme d'attente ou d'espérance chez certains". This guy is really the epitome of arrogance and the stereotype of the slimy politician who should be run over by a truck.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As an independent? Such chutzpah though.

[RogueBeaver]

As an independent? Such chutzpah though.

That, and what Hash said.