The future of the two parties

[Orser67]

I see the Democratic Party remaining about where it is now. As young (mostly) white liberals get older, they'll put pressure on the Democratic Party to move in a libertarian direction.

I predict that the GOP going through the "wilderness" for several years, nominating extreme presidential candidates and clinging to power in the House. Of course, even if they nominate extreme candidates, they could still win the election given the right set of events. The GOP might adapt to changing demographics, but I think many underestimate how difficult that will be. Republicans will face a quandary, as the ideological purists will try to push them away from the center, which will turn off swing voters. But if the GOP tries to stick to the center, conservatives could very well start a third party.

While I would bet against it, there's no guarantee the GOP will be around throughout our lifetimes. Just because a major party hasn't disappeared in 150 years doesn't mean that it will never happen again. The Democrats could also disappear as a major party, but the GOP faces much larger problems than the Democrats, at least right now.