Texas Trends

[ElectionsGuy]

This is just predicting again, what do you guys think will happen to Texas in the next decade or so? Remember that if Texas is lost to republicans, the republicans are pretty much lost to the white house. I personally think it won't happen for a while, but it's interesting to see what people have to say about it. Feel free to express opinions/theories.

[ElectionsGuy]

I voted for option 1, but I think it goes a bit too far and I don't think there were enough choices.  If one choice was "it will get more democratic but still lean slightly Republican for a while" I probably would have chosen that.

Ok, too bad I can't edit polls, otherwise I would probably edit out option 2.

[ElectionsGuy]

much more Democratic? I haven't seen any signs of that in the past 9 elections. Maybe the "much more Democratic" talking point is liberal wishful thinking.

Maybe it is, but states can trend hard, look at Arkansas 2004-2008.

[ElectionsGuy]

It will take long, maybe over 30 years, but it will eventually turn Democrat.

Just curious, when do you think your state will finally go republican?

[ElectionsGuy]

Arkansas was brought up as changing from 2000-2008, but really it hasn't changed much ever. Sure it's changed some since the mid 20th century, but it's still a socially conservative state where voters will respond to social conservative politicians like Mike Huckabee. What has changed is the Democratic Party since it had a monopoly on Arkansas 50 years ago. They've gone far to the left while the Republican Party has picked up on recruiting social conservatives. It's pretty much the state it was in the 1950's while the parties are half different. States really don't change that much unless there's massive movements towards them like California in the mid 20th century and Florida in the late 20th century. Partisans also tend to wishfully think every state do they do a point better than last time in, is going to be their state soon. Very rarely do states change or switch parties my friends.

But don't we have massive movement towards Texas? It's a border state that is 2nd in Hispanics to only California.

Third actually because of New Mexico

[ElectionsGuy]

As a %, yeah. As a straight number, Texas is #2.

If you go by %, California and Texas are about even.

Oh OK, Yes you are right then.

[ElectionsGuy]

It will take long, maybe over 30 years, but it will eventually turn Democrat.

Just curious, when do you think your state will finally go republican?

California? If anything, it's getting more and more democratic.

I know that, but just take a guess

[ElectionsGuy]

Arkansas was brought up as changing from 2000-2008, but really it hasn't changed much ever. Sure it's changed some since the mid 20th century, but it's still a socially conservative state where voters will respond to social conservative politicians like Mike Huckabee. What has changed is the Democratic Party since it had a monopoly on Arkansas 50 years ago. They've gone far to the left while the Republican Party has picked up on recruiting social conservatives. It's pretty much the state it was in the 1950's while the parties are half different. States really don't change that much unless there's massive movements towards them like California in the mid 20th century and Florida in the late 20th century. Partisans also tend to wishfully think every state do they do a point better than last time in, is going to be their state soon. Very rarely do states change or switch parties my friends.

But don't we have massive movement towards Texas? It's a border state that is 2nd in Hispanics to only California.

Yes, but a lot of conservatives are moving to Texas too.

That is true, my parents (who are hardcore conservatives) are thinking about moving down to Texas for retirement.

[ElectionsGuy]

Arkansas was brought up as changing from 2000-2008, but really it hasn't changed much ever. Sure it's changed some since the mid 20th century, but it's still a socially conservative state where voters will respond to social conservative politicians like Mike Huckabee. What has changed is the Democratic Party since it had a monopoly on Arkansas 50 years ago. They've gone far to the left while the Republican Party has picked up on recruiting social conservatives. It's pretty much the state it was in the 1950's while the parties are half different. States really don't change that much unless there's massive movements towards them like California in the mid 20th century and Florida in the late 20th century. Partisans also tend to wishfully think every state do they do a point better than last time in, is going to be their state soon. Very rarely do states change or switch parties my friends.

But don't we have massive movement towards Texas? It's a border state that is 2nd in Hispanics to only California.

Yes, but a lot of conservatives are moving to Texas too.

That is true, my parents (who are hardcore conservatives) are thinking about moving down to Texas for retirement.

Yes it's because of Washington's tentacles reaching too far.

Too far to... Wisconsin?  I'm not really sure what you're saying here.

[ElectionsGuy]

Either Hispanic's votes get suppressed or they are reclassified as whites like the Irish and Italians before them. Either way, the Republican party should do fine.

They'll be good for another decade at least, no concerns really. States don't change overnight. I would think the fastest growing state moving in the D direction is Virginia which is definitely a concern. Texas actually moved to the right in 2012 from 2008 and has no signs of voting for democrats so it's not like we need to worry about it right now.

[ElectionsGuy]

Either Hispanic's votes get suppressed or they are reclassified as whites like the Irish and Italians before them. Either way, the Republican party should do fine.

They'll be good for another decade at least, no concerns really. States don't change overnight. I would think the fastest growing state moving in the D direction is Virginia which is definitely a concern. Texas actually moved to the right in 2012 from 2008 and has no signs of voting for democrats so it's not like we need to worry about it right now.

It's already there.

Arizona and Georgia are moving. While Associated Press raised my suspicion with its b.s. decision to poll only 31 states for last year's presidential election, left off the list was Georgia. In 2008, Barack Obama won the female vote in the state with 54 percent. Since Mitt Romney shifted the state by a couple points, maybe Obama won Ga. females again in 2012. In 2008 Arizona, there was no gender gap, where Obama received 45 percent support from both males and females. In 2012, with Romney barely having shifted the state, the president won over the female vote with 51 percent.

As for Texas, its R+15.78 [2012] statewide margin for Mitt Romney was comparable to John McCain's R+11.76 [2008]. The state lately is about 19 or 20 points more Republican, relative to the national outcome. What the Democrats would have to do is actually show up in the state, long before a general election, and rebuild. Part of what that would do is give the party a presence, yes, but it may reduce the obstacles in place that doesn't require a presidential winner, from Team Blue, to have to take the national margin by that many percentage points to win over Texas.

Virginia is in Toss-Up mode and moving left is what I meant. Arizona really hasn't gotten more D, in fact it's more conservative now than it was in the Bush years. Georgia however is moving slightly left from a few years ago but movement is slow, and it's too far of a reach for the Dems right now. Right now if I were a Dem I would want to reach for leaning R NC, which is what many people want. Reaching for Georgia right now is like a conservative reaching for Oregon, and reaching for Arizona is like reaching for Washington.

Texas is another story, if they want eyes focused on Texas they will have to prove it has D power by making it trend D. If it trends R again then I see no signs of it flipping, but the only real way it can trend R is if white vote gets even more republican or turnout is better among whites, or If Hispanic vote gets more republican while whites keep the current % with the republicans. If it trends D to about R+16 than my eyes will be focused on Texas but until then, it's in Strong R territory.

[ElectionsGuy]

Arkansas was brought up as changing from 2000-2008, but really it hasn't changed much ever. Sure it's changed some since the mid 20th century, but it's still a socially conservative state where voters will respond to social conservative politicians like Mike Huckabee. What has changed is the Democratic Party since it had a monopoly on Arkansas 50 years ago. They've gone far to the left while the Republican Party has picked up on recruiting social conservatives. It's pretty much the state it was in the 1950's while the parties are half different. States really don't change that much unless there's massive movements towards them like California in the mid 20th century and Florida in the late 20th century. Partisans also tend to wishfully think every state do they do a point better than last time in, is going to be their state soon. Very rarely do states change or switch parties my friends.

But don't we have massive movement towards Texas? It's a border state that is 2nd in Hispanics to only California.

Yes, but a lot of conservatives are moving to Texas too.

That is true, my parents (who are hardcore conservatives) are thinking about moving down to Texas for retirement.

Yes it's because of Washington's tentacles reaching too far.

Too far to... Wisconsin?  I'm not really sure what you're saying here.

No all I'm saying is the federal government is becoming too big so conservatives are going to a place where things are run in a manner of their liking at least at the state level. There's always the notion that Texas would secede from the union eventually.

Oh, OK