The trend in Wisconsin

[sg0508]

Where is this state going over the next 20 years?  There are no major population movements as far as I can tell as well as influxes our outlfluxes of certain demographic groups.  

The GOP always seems to be close here, but can't ever get over the hump.

1) 2000- Gore wins here by less than 1% (Nader hurt the margin).

2) 2004- Kerry pulls an upset win here by less than 1% as Bush was pretty much leading here until the end.  (There were some rumblings that corruption here pushed Kerry over the top, but I have no proof; just discussion with a few that I know in WI).

3) 2006- Jim Doyle was the only democrat in some trouble in the statehouse races in 2006 but Mark Green lost by 7-8 pts.

4) Russ Feingold never wins by overwhelming margins, but always wins.

5) The statehouse looked very promising this year, but now, appears to be a deadheat and after talking to some family in WI, they say the democrats will find a way to keep it yet again and Feingold, who should be under some fire, probably will win by a comfortable, if not overwhelming margin.

Where is this state going?  Like MN, it should be ripe for the GOP and it always seems there for the pickings in these statewide and nat. races, but it always ends up blue.  

[Derek]

yep it's interesting, Dukakis did very well there for a losing candidate but I'd classify it as a Democrat battleground state meaning that if the GOP has a landslide of 5 or more points they can win it.

[sg0508]

The Dukakis win was likely due to the farm crisis that plagued the region in the 80s.  The same was true in IA.  Reagan was not strong at all in IA or WI in the 84 landslide.

[Derek]

that's true, idk why they thot Dukakis was the answer? LMAO

[Smash255]

Its pretty much going to stay a few points more Democratic than the country as a whole.  The GOP does very well in the Milwaukee suburbs, but Milwaukee itself and the Madison area (more than 1/4 of the votes comes from Milwaukee and Dane counties) slightly outweighs the Milwaukee suburban vote.  Not enough happens in the rest of the state to influence it much either way.