PA - Trafalgar: Biden +2%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/10w6DzQtjbRcFFqpnsGIwmRstjY7fDa5e/view

September 15-17
1006 likely voters
MoE: 2.99%
Changes with June 28 - July 2 poll (not based on rounded results)

Biden 47% (-1)
Trump 45% (+2)
Jorgensen 2%
Someone else 2%
Hawkins 1%
Undecided 2% (-1)

Jorgensen + Someone else + Hawkins = ~6% (-1 from “Other candidate” at 6% but about 1% higher pre-rounding)

[Splash]

Oh God. Here we go.

[DaleCooper]

I figured that Trafalgar would find Trump ahead. Good for Biden, even the shy Trump-voter effect can't get the incumbent above 45%.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So I guess Biden +7 it is.

[DINGO Joe]

safe Biden

[Skill and Chance]

Actually pretty great for Biden that he's leading in this.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Release the crosstabs you cowards

[Rand]

S C R A N T O N     F ‘ N     J O E

[MT Treasurer]

Never bought the "PA will vote significantly to the right of MI/WI" meme / overreactions to unreliable polls. Lean D, just like WI/MI/MN.

[pbrower2a]

TRAsh. FALsehood. GARbage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TRAsh. FALsehood. GARbage.

You really think Biden is gonna win a 413 landslide that never happened since 1964, it will be a 291-247 election like Cook has it

[wbrocks67]

Despite finding R leads in pretty much everywhere else, Trafalgar has yet to find a Trump lead in PA. That's pretty noteworthy

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Oh God. Here we go.

Ugh, now I'm thinking about after next week if a couple polls (regardless of quality) showed even minimal movement towards Trump in the swing states. After yesterday, I don't think this board (or a good chunk of it) can survive another 2 months of this election

Not even 24 hours went by

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

S C R A N T O N     F ‘ N     J O E

[Tender Branson]

Terrible poll for Trump.

[pbrower2a]

TRAsh. FALsehood. GARbage.

You really think Biden is gonna win a 413 landslide that never happened since 1964, it will be a 291-247 election like Cook has it

It's within the range of possibility in the event that Trump really fouls up and does more to offend voters.

New Hampshire is likely the difference between 228 and 232 electoral votes. The next states that fall for Biden are Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Arizona (11), Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), and Texas (32), with the often-wayward second districts of Maine and Nebraska (1 each) in there. That's a huge number of electoral votes in that range, all but those of the two Second Districts and Iowa in states with at least ten electoral votes.

At this point, Michigan is probably out of reach for Trump (as the late Ernie Harwell said of a home run "it's lawnng gonnne"). Still the range of 181 electoral votes is only ten states (all but Iowa at least ten electoral votes) and two wayward districts.

In landslides, the winner typically wins almost all the close races, and this is possible. Presidential elections are close -- or they aren't. This election is going to gravitate to about 290 electoral votes for Biden or something in the 360-413 range. Trump's campaign is in shambles, but there is always the chance that he will come up with a surprise that has Democrats sweating on November 3. It is also possible that his campaign will disintegrate. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TRAsh. FALsehood. GARbage.

You really think Biden is gonna win a 413 landslide that never happened since 1964, it will be a 291-247 election like Cook has it

It's within the range of possibility in the event that Trump really fouls up and does more to offend voters.

New Hampshire is likely the difference between 228 and 232 electoral votes. The next states that fall for Biden are Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Arizona (11), Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), and Texas (32), with the often-wayward second districts of Maine and Nebraska (1 each) in there. That's a huge number of electoral votes in that range, all but those of the two Second Districts and Iowa in states with at least ten electoral votes.

At this point, Michigan is probably out of reach for Trump (as the late Ernie Harwell said of a home run "it's lawnng gonnne"). Still the range of 181 electoral votes is only ten states (all but Iowa at least ten electoral votes) and two wayward districts.

In landslides, the winner typically wins almost all the close races, and this is possible. Presidential elections are close -- or they aren't. This election is going to gravitate to about 290 electoral votes for Biden or something in the 360-413 range. Trump's campaign is in shambles, but there is always the chance that he will come up with a surprise that has Democrats sweating on November 3. It is also possible that his campaign will disintegrate. 

CNN and Cook projects a 291-247 EC map, we are unlikely to get a huge landslide with Trump approvals are back at 48 pecercet not 39 percent. They were never that low

[Hammy]

Trafalgar with Biden lead = Trump's pretty much done here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trafalgar with Biden lead = Trump's pretty much done here.

There are third party votes in the states, if Kayne West or Jorgansen get what Johnson, got, its likely Trump will crack the blue wall. He isn't at 39 percent, he is close to 50 percent

[BobbieMac]

TRAsh. FALsehood. GARbage.

You really think Biden is gonna win a 413 landslide that never happened since 1964, it will be a 291-247 election like Cook has it

It's within the range of possibility in the event that Trump really fouls up and does more to offend voters.

New Hampshire is likely the difference between 228 and 232 electoral votes. The next states that fall for Biden are Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Arizona (11), Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), and Texas (32), with the often-wayward second districts of Maine and Nebraska (1 each) in there. That's a huge number of electoral votes in that range, all but those of the two Second Districts and Iowa in states with at least ten electoral votes.

At this point, Michigan is probably out of reach for Trump (as the late Ernie Harwell said of a home run "it's lawnng gonnne"). Still the range of 181 electoral votes is only ten states (all but Iowa at least ten electoral votes) and two wayward districts.

In landslides, the winner typically wins almost all the close races, and this is possible. Presidential elections are close -- or they aren't. This election is going to gravitate to about 290 electoral votes for Biden or something in the 360-413 range. Trump's campaign is in shambles, but there is always the chance that he will come up with a surprise that has Democrats sweating on November 3. It is also possible that his campaign will disintegrate. 

CNN and Cook projects a 291-247 EC map, we are unlikely to get a huge landslide with Trump approvals are back at 48 pecercet not 39 percent. They were never that low

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.

[BobbieMac]

Trafalgar with Biden lead = Trump's pretty much done here.

There are third party votes in the states, if Kayne West or Jorgansen get what Johnson, got, its likely Trump will crack the blue wall. He isn't at 39 percent, he is close to 50 percent

Just repeating the same incorrect nonsense doesnt make it true.

[SaneDemocrat]

A tad white too