The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Post-straw poll results update:

GOP nomination

Perry 33.7
Romney 29.8
Palin 8.2
Bachmann 8.0
Huntsman 6.5
Paul 4.5
Pawlenty 2.8
Giuliani 2.1
Christie 1.5
Gingrich 1.0
Cain 0.8
Pataki 0.5
Rubio 0.5
Ryan 0.5
Johnson 0.4

Iowa caucus

Bachmann 40.0
Perry 30.0
Paul 15.0
Palin 9.0
Romney 5.0
Pawlenty 4.6
Cain 1.0
Santorum 1.0

Will the following people run?

Palin 38.9
Giuliani 26.0
Bolton 15.0
Pataki 15.0

[Mr. Morden]

Here's where things stood back on May 5th, just before the first debate:

Romney 24.0
Pawlenty 14.0
Daniels 11.6
Huckabee 8.0
Huntsman 7.3
Trump 6.2
Bachmann 5.7
Palin 5.2
Paul 3.5
Gingrich 3.0
Christie 1.5
Ryan 1.2
Johnson 1.0
Santorum 0.6
J. Bush 0.3
Cain 0.3
Perry 0.3
Rubio 0.3

Yes, Perry's share price has increased 100-fold since then, so anyone betting on him at that time would have now made a lot of money.  Of course, back in May, he was still insisting that he had no interest in running.

I remember when Perry was increasing to like 10-15 or so, and people were saying "Oh, you should short him.  It's just a bubble."  Yeah....

[Mr. Morden]

Perry at an all time high, and Pawlenty has dropped all the way to 0.1.

Up: Perry
Down: Pawlenty, Palin, Bachmann

Perry 35.7
Romney 30.5
Palin 7.0
Huntsman 6.1
Bachmann 6.0
Paul 4.0
Giuliani 1.8
Christie 1.5
Gingrich 1.2
Cain 0.6
Pataki 0.5
Ryan 0.5
Johnson 0.4
Rubio 0.4
Santorum 0.4

[Bull Moose Base]

Here's where things stood back on May 5th, just before the first debate:

Romney 24.0
Pawlenty 14.0
Daniels 11.6
Huckabee 8.0
Huntsman 7.3
Trump 6.2
Bachmann 5.7
Palin 5.2
Paul 3.5
Gingrich 3.0
Christie 1.5
Ryan 1.2
Johnson 1.0
Santorum 0.6
J. Bush 0.3
Cain 0.3
Perry 0.3
Rubio 0.3

Yes, Perry's share price has increased 100-fold since then, so anyone betting on him at that time would have now made a lot of money.  Of course, back in May, he was still insisting that he had no interest in running.

I remember when Perry was increasing to like 10-15 or so, and people were saying "Oh, you should short him.  It's just a bubble."  Yeah....

And look at the one from the beginning of the year, red font mine to indicate people not running for president now/people named Newt Gingrich.  But will Palin get in after surprising with a 1% write-in at Ames?

Republican nominee
Romney 19.1
Palin 16.6
Thune 11.9
Daniels 8.1
Huckabee 7.8
Pawlenty 6.1
Pence 5.1
Gingrich 5.0
Barbour 2.7

[Yelnoc]

Mr. Morden, you wouldn't happen to have numbers from 2007 post-Ames, would you?

[Simfan34]

Up: Perry, Palin, Huntsman
Down: Romney, Pawlenty

Perry 37.0
Romney 30.7
Huntsman 7.0
Bachmann 6.9
Paul 4.9
Gingrich 0.8
Cain 0.4
Johnson 0.4
Santorum 0.4
McCotter 0.1
Moore 0.1
Roemer 0.1
Pawlenty 0.1

Undeclared:

Palin 6.6
Giuliani 2.0
Christie 1.5
Pataki 0.5
Ryan 0.5

[Landslide Lyndon]

People underestimate Bachmann to a ridiculous degree.

[© tweed]

Romney + Huntsman + Bachmann paying between 1:1 and 3:2?  sounds like a "buying opportunity", until I start thinking about it just a bit more.

[Simfan34]

Romney + Huntsman + Bachmann paying between 1:1 and 3:2?  sounds like a "buying opportunity", until I start thinking about it just a bit more.

I do not like this threeway

[Middle-aged Europe]

Romney + Huntsman + Bachmann paying between 1:1 and 3:2?  sounds like a "buying opportunity", until I start thinking about it just a bit more.

I do not like this threeway

Stop giving Hustler any ideas, please.

[GLPman]

It's quite remarkable how quickly Perry has climbed.

And Pawlenty going down to 0.1. Fail. At least he's out now.

[Simfan34]

Romney + Huntsman + Bachmann paying between 1:1 and 3:2?  sounds like a "buying opportunity", until I start thinking about it just a bit more.

I do not like this threeway

Stop giving Hustler any ideas, please.

Oh! God! God! NO!

[Mr. Morden]

And look at the one from the beginning of the year, red font mine to indicate people not running for president now/people named Newt Gingrich.  But will Palin get in after surprising with a 1% write-in at Ames?

Republican nominee
Romney 19.1
Palin 16.6
Thune 11.9
Daniels 8.1
Huckabee 7.8
Pawlenty 6.1
Pence 5.1
Gingrich 5.0
Barbour 2.7

If you go back to say, December, no one thought Bachmann was going to run, Huntsman was in China, and there was no way he was going to be resigning as ambassador anytime soon, Paul was probably going to defer on another race and let Johnson take up the libertarian mantle, and Perry had already ruled out running for president.  Why would anybody buy shares of those four on Intrade?

Quite a difference between this race and the last few cycles, when most of the leading candidates telegraphed their intentions well in advance.  I remember the McCain-Romney shadow war in the early primary states, that started in like early 2006.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney falls further behind Perry, and Ryan surges into the top 5.

Up: Ryan
Down: Romney, Palin, Paul

Perry 37.2
Romney 29.1
Bachmann 7.0
Huntsman 7.0
Ryan 6.0
Palin 4.5
Paul 3.3
Christie 1.9
Giuliani 1.6
Gingrich 0.9
Cain 0.5
Johnson 0.4
Pataki 0.4

Will the following people run?

Ryan 32.0
Palin 26.3
Pataki 25.0
Bolton 24.0
Giuliani 24.0
Christie 10.0
Trump 10.0

[TheGlobalizer]

Ryan?  Did I miss a news event?

[Mr. Morden]

Ryan?  Did I miss a news event?

Yes:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=139645.0

[Mr. Morden]

Palin back up to third place.  In fact, she's in third place in both the presidential and vice presidential markets.

Up: Romney, Palin
Down: Perry, Huntsman, Ryan, Bachmann

GOP pres. nominee

Perry 35.4
Romney 30.6
Palin 6.1
Huntsman 5.8
Ryan 5.0
Bachmann 4.7
Paul 3.5
Giuliani 2.5
Christie 2.0
Gingrich 1.1
Cain 0.6
Johnson 0.4
Pataki 0.4

GOP VP nominee

Rubio 36.0
McDonnell 9.0
Palin 6.0
Thune 5.9
Bachmann 5.0
Romney 4.9
Christie 4.5
Huntsman 4.5
Huckabee 4.0

Dem. pres. nominee

Obama 90.0
Clinton 8.0
Biden 1.7

Dem. VP nominee

Biden 87.5
Clinton 7.0

[Mr. Morden]

Palin's on the upswing, with "Palin to run for president in 2012" now up to 46.7.  That's fueling her surge in the GOP nomination market:

Perry 35.5
Romney 30.8
Palin 9.7
Bachmann 5.5
Huntsman 5.3
Ryan 4.9
Paul 3.6
Christie 2.3
Giuliani 2.2
Gingrich 0.9
Cain 0.4
Johnson 0.4
Pataki 0.4
Bolton 0.3

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Palin back up to third place.  In fact, she's in third place in both the presidential and vice presidential markets.

Up: Romney, Palin
Down: Perry, Huntsman, Ryan, Bachmann

GOP pres. nominee

Perry 35.4
Romney 30.6
Palin 6.1
Huntsman 5.8
Ryan 5.0
Bachmann 4.7
Paul 3.5
Giuliani 2.5
Christie 2.0
Gingrich 1.1
Cain 0.6
Johnson 0.4
Pataki 0.4

GOP VP nominee

Rubio 36.0
McDonnell 9.0
Palin 6.0
Thune 5.9
Bachmann 5.0
Romney 4.9
Christie 4.5
Huntsman 4.5
Huckabee 4.0

Dem. pres. nominee

Obama 90.0
Clinton 8.0
Biden 1.7

Dem. VP nominee

Biden 87.5
Clinton 7.0

Wait... People think Palin has a 6.0% chance of running but a 6.1% chance of winning the nomination?
In other words, if she runs, she has a 102% chance of winning the nomination?
WTF?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wait... People think Palin has a 6.0% chance of running but a 6.1% chance of winning the nomination?
In other words, if she runs, she has a 102% chance of winning the nomination?
WTF?

No, people think there's a 6.1% chance of winning the nomination and a 6.0% chance of being picked as VP by the actual nominee.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Wait... People think Palin has a 6.0% chance of running but a 6.1% chance of winning the nomination?
In other words, if she runs, she has a 102% chance of winning the nomination?
WTF?

No, people think there's a 6.1% chance of winning the nomination and a 6.0% chance of being picked as VP by the actual nominee.

Oh. I must have mixed it up with the post before, where the second bit was if people would run.

[Mr. Morden]

Pataki-mentum:

Up: Pataki
Down: Perry, Romney, Palin

Perry 34.5
Romney 29.5
Palin 8.7
Bachmann 5.6
Ryan 5.4
Huntsman 4.9
Paul 3.9
Pataki 2.7
Giuliani 2.5
Christie 2.4
Gingrich 1.0
Cain 0.5
Bolton 0.4
Johnson 0.4

Will the following people run?

Pataki 60.0
Palin 39.0
Giuliani 25.0
Ryan 23.6
Bolton 20.0

[ajc0918]

Huntsman above Paul is surprising.

[Simfan34]

Huntsman above Paul is surprising.

Huntsman has always been above Paul.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Huntsman above Paul is surprising.

Huntsman has always been above Paul.

It was surprising when Huntsman hadn't announced, it was surprising when Huntsman was polling at 1% to Paul's 8%, and it is still surprising while Huntsman is polling 3% to Paul's 12%