How did Mecklenberg County, NC (Charlotte) become so liberal? (user search)
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  How did Mecklenberg County, NC (Charlotte) become so liberal? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How did Mecklenberg County, NC (Charlotte) become so liberal?  (Read 2283 times)
RINO Tom
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Posts: 17,046
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Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« on: May 30, 2017, 12:10:11 PM »

I'll start by saying I know nothing about this county, but this is something people need to consider:

Let's consider a hypothetical county that is 80% White in the year 2000, and the only options on the ballot are Democrat or Republican. 

Let's say in 2000, George W. Bush wins 58% of the White vote there and 25% of the minority vote, making it about average for what Republicans are getting now.  Bush would win the county with 51.4% of the vote to Gore's 48.6%.

If you fast forward to 2008, and Whites and minorities vote literally EXACTLY the same, but the county is now 75% White and 25% minority, Obama would have won the county with 50.25% of the vote to McCain's 49.75%.  If by 2016 the trend continued and the county was 70% White and 30% minority and voting patterns stayed the same, Hillary would have won 51.9%-48.1%.

We cannot assume that a county switching its voting patterns is due to the TYPES of voters we associate(d) with that county changing their political preferences.
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RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,046
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2017, 10:12:52 AM »

Demographics of Mecklenburg, NC:

2000:

64% White
28% Black
  6% Hispanic or Latino
  3% Asian
  3% Two or More Races

2010:

51% Non-Hispanic White
31% Black
12% Hispanic
  5% Asian
  3% Two or More Races

2015:

48% Non-Hispanic White
32% Black
13% Hispanic
  6% Asian
  2% Two or More Races

Had no idea the demographics changed that rapidly. That explains most of the GOP's decline there. Trump did however lose 28 precincts in Mecklenburg that voted for Romney. These are affluent white areas that normally vote GOP. Trump's weakness with college whites definitely concerns me.

MOST political change is from demographic change.  Affluent Whites moving away from Trump is just icing on a cake.
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