Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[cinyc]

SoS still doesn't have Butler's results listed, but I'm not betting on DDHQ getting the numbers wrong.

The reported Butler results are easily verifiable:

http://maps.bucoks.com/elections/public/G06.php?election=38#103

[cinyc]

Estes takes the lead in the SoS count:

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 298 of 620
Candidate    Votes    %    
D-James A. Thompson    30,590    49%    
     
L-Chris Rockhold    1,032    2%    
     
R-Ron Estes    30,708    49%    
 

[cinyc]

It's over.

No it's not. Thompson still has a substantial lead in Sedgwick. It's only over if that county narrows substantially.

Thompson's edge in Sedgwick has fallen with every election day precinct reporting.  The election day vote is tied there, at best.  And if RI says what's out in Sedgwick is more Republican-leaning than what's in, he would know.

[cinyc]

I think Thompson has nowhere to go but up from here to be honest. Most of all the rural counties are in. I wonder if the results will narrow back again.

The Sedgwick County election day vote in so far is even (at best) for Thompson, so probably not.  And there are still some other rurals out.

[cinyc]

DDHQ calls the race for Estes.

[cinyc]

Harvey County flipped to Estes with 30/38 reporting.  The only remaining question seems to be will Sedgwick County flip once all of the election day vote is recorded?  It significantly tightened with the last batch.

[cinyc]

AP calls the race for Estes.

[cinyc]

Estes ends up losing Sedgwick County by just 414 votes in the final unofficial tally.

                     
U. S. Representative 4th District 4th District 
                     
James A. Thompson             ......   37472 / 49%
Chris Rockhold                ......    1240 /  1%
Ron Estes                     ......   37058 / 48%
WRITE-IN                      ......      60 /  0%

What was the early vote number?

[cinyc]

Estes ends up losing Sedgwick County by just 414 votes in the final unofficial tally.

what is that % wise?

.546 points.  49.42%-48.87% (including write-ins).

[cinyc]

Estes ends up losing Sedgwick County by just 414 votes in the final unofficial tally.

Jeez. So my prediction about ED vote being overwhelmingly GOP was right?

It appears that about one-third of Sedgwick's vote was EV; two-thirds ED. IIRC, Thompson won EV by about 22 points, so this would mean Estes won ED by about 10.

Yes.  The Sedgwick County early vote was about 61-39 Thompson.  The Sedgwick County election day vote was about 55-45 Estes (ignoring third parties and write-ins).

[cinyc]

Sedgwick apparently had more votes to report - I'm not sure from where.  Thompson now wins the county by 1,874 votes, or 2.3 points:

U. S. Representative 4th District 4th District  
                    
James A. Thompson             ......   41293 / 50%
Chris Rockhold                ......    1347 /  1%
Ron Estes                     ......   39419 / 47%
WRITE-IN                      ......      79 /  0%

That puts the overall margin back to around 6.8 points.

[cinyc]

Is there anywhere that has precinct-by-precinct results yet?

If you go to the Kansas SoS link and click on the counties on the map, there is a link to the various county websites at the top of the page.  Some of the counties have released precinct results. Segwick has.

Edited to add:
Butler County precinct results
Harvey County precinct results (Excel File)

The other counties don't seem to have them up yet.  Those counties are all pretty small, too.

[cinyc]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often.  

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

Senator Tim Scott says hi, both as Senator from South Carolina and Congressman from SC-1.  

Not all African-Americans are Democrats.  It is perfectly possible for a black Republican to win in the South a majority white district.

[cinyc]

^Not seeing numbers anywhere. AP doesn't have it (which is what NYT uses), and neither does the SOS or DDHQ.

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)         55.43%    7,920
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)  44.57%    6,368

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/69574/Web02-state/#/

The Fulton County part of the district is all in. The Cobb County part still reporting.  Kirkpatrick should have this.