Beware, biased prediction coming up. I hope you can all enjoy it though.
John Kerry and running mate John Edwards win the 2004 election by a 272-266 margin. Consequently Kerry is the incumbent for 2008 and goes unchallenged (in spite of rumours within some media circles, ie. Drudge and Limbaugh, of a "coup" to install Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee.)
GWB's surprise 2004 defeat resulted in an ideological struggle within the Republican Party between moderates (helmed most noteably by John McCain and Rudolph Giuliani) and neocons (Santorum, Jeb Bush). Basically, the moderates believe that GWB lost the election because he was too right-wing and that only a more centre-right candidate could win an election, whereas the neocons believe quite the opposite - that GWB wasn't right-wing
enough. This debate is reflected in the primaries, which reveal a deep divide within the GOP.
Rudolph Giuliani surprises many pundits by declaring that he will
not run for President. Many believe this to be a ploy by the moderates to unite behind one candidate and not split their vote. That candidate is John McCain, who, just a few years earlier, many felt to be down and out due to ill health and a fading profile. However, his health problems thankfully behind him, McCain is the candidate many believe to be the most electable. His war record easily parallels Kerry's and his national stature is second to none.
Gov. Jeb Bush, after much dithering, eventually decides to throw his hat in the ring. At a rousing speech in St. Petersburg, FL, Jeb Bush declares his intention to run for President in front of his family, including father George, and of course brother George W. Rick Santorum, who some on the fringe of the GOP believed to have a shot at the nomination, decides not to split the neocon vote and instead endorse Jeb Bush. In fact, most of the endorsements reveal a split within the party - but obviously everybody involved denies such a thing. In the uselectionatlas.org forum, prominent user Jmfcst castigates cheeky British chappie Michael Z for even daring to suggest such a thing.
Other Republicans who feel they have a legitimate shot at challenging Kerry include Lamar Alexander, Elizabeth Dole, Lincoln Chaffee, Roy LaHood, and Jim Talent. However, as the primary season goes underway most of these candidates fall to the wayside and eventually drop out of the race, leaving voters with a clear choice between McCain and Jeb Bush, with many fearing a repeat of the 2000 primaries, which were dogged by fiercely negative campaigning between McCain and George W Bush. Thankfully these fears prove to be unfounded and the race is mainly a clean one.
In what turns out to be the most suspense-filled Republican primaries since 1976, McCain eventually wins... but only by a whisker.
And so the inevitable media speculation starts; who will be his running mate? Attention veers from Alexander to Hagel, E. Dole, Talent, Frist, Perry, and Don Rumsfeld(!). The favourite, however, turns out to be Rudolph Giuliani, who threw all his weight behind McCain during the primaries. Then McCain surprises everyone and chooses Bill Frist, a move no doubt designed to bridge the much-documented gap between moderates and not-so-moderates. Giuliani, word has it, will be rewarded for his loyalty in other ways, with a prominent role within a potential McCain Administration.
A brief scare is endured by Democrats when Howard Dean hints at running as the Green Party candidate. That fear, however, is eventually allayed when Jello Biafra is chosen instead (the Green Party's official line being that the ex-Dead Kennedys singer is a "more electable" candidate than Dean).
In November 2008, McCain/Frist take on Kerry/Edwards. Kerry narrowly wins. However, a second Kerry term is dogged by crisis for reasons of something-or-other (this is where my psychic future-telling abilities fail me), and so in 2012 Hagel/Perry beat Edwards/Ford.
