Looks like PA was the tipping point state

[ajb]

It's worth noting that in 1996 Clinton got a smaller percentage of the vote in PA than in the country as a whole. There might be a recent R trend, but it's far from being clear.

Trends fluctuate, too. Ohio has trended in opposite directions in every election since 1996. Since by definition half the country has to trend D, and half trend R, at each election, it's tough to sort out which of those trends are meaningful, and which ones aren't.