Bulgaria elections - 5 October 2014

[Famous Mortimer]

Bulgaria's last elections were just over a year ago. The result was basically a hung parliament. Eventually a government was formed by the second place Bulgarian Socialist Party and the Turkish minority Movement for Rights and Freedoms, who together had exactly 50% of the seats in parliament. The minority government only survived thanks to the tactical abstention of the far-right Attack party.

After the Socialists poor performance in EU elections, Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski, technically an independent but nominated by the BSP, offered his resignation, paving the way for new elections on October 5th.

The main parties are the same as last time:

Bulgarian Socialist Party: Former Communist Party. Current barely centre-left party.

Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB): Populist, cartoonishly corrupt party currently acting the part of the centre-right opposition.

Movement for Rights and Freedoms: Turkish minority party.

There are a few new players as well:

Bulgaria Without Censorship: This election cycle's new flash in the pan Western style free market conservative party.

Reformist Bloc: A coalition of all the previous election cycles' Western style flash in the pan free market conservative parties, including the Union of Democratic Forces (party that ended Communism), Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria (party formed by UDF PM after UDF crashed), Bulgaria for Citizens Movement (party of former Simon II supporters), and the Bulgarian Agrarian People's Union (pre-Communist ruling party)

Alternative for Bulgarian Revival: Party led by former President Georgi Parvanov, who broke away from the Socialist Party, slightly to the left of the Socialist Party.

GERB will probably win.

[Famous Mortimer]

Some guy who was expelled from the Bulgarian Socialist Party was selected to be interim PM until the elections.

Perhaps Mantis can tell us the story of why he was expelled.

[Famous Mortimer]

Poll:

GERB 43%
BSP 31
MRF 11
Bulgaria Without Censorship 7
Reformist Bloc 7

http://www.focus-fen.net/news/2014/09/04/347617/bulgarias-cedb-takes-lead-in-pre-election-polls-but-hardly-likely-to-form-ruling-majority-roundup.html

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, the Reformist Bloc was going to have a leadership election but decided to delay it until November 10th, after the election.

Apparently there is disagreement within the coalition over whether or not to form a government with GERB after the parliamentary elections. So rather than have a leadership vote and have the side that loses leave, they're just going to dodge the issue for now.

Oh, and the Reformist Bloc now includes the Freedom and Dignity Party, which I believe is the organizational successor to the Simon II Movement. Although it already included the Bulgaria for Citizens Movement, which had most of the Simonist party's old members.

[Famous Mortimer]

GERB hinted at a grand coalition and then quickly backtracked.

Still, I think they really mean it.

It's pretty much the only solution besides a perpetual caretaker government.

[Famous Mortimer]

Another party which may get into parliament is the Patriotic Front.

The Patriotic Front is a coalition of two right-wing groups. One is the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria, a far-right group which split from Attack and runs a TV station called SKAT. It was also the largest party not to get into parliament in the last elections. The other component is the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization, a somewhat more traditional conservative which takes its name from a 19th anti-Ottoman movement. They ran in an alliance with Bulgaria Without Censorship earlier this year in the EU elections but decided to switch for some reason.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm mostly just guessing but probably their de facto support of the Socialist-Turkish government.

Also, the loss of the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria and their TV station couldn't have helped either, although that actually happened before the last election.

Where's Mantis???

[Famous Mortimer]

Campaigning had been suspended the last couple of days because of an explosion at a factory that killed 15 workers.

The election goes on as planned though.

[Famous Mortimer]

No results yet but wikipedia now lists all the polls if anyone is interested:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian_parliamentary_election,_2014

They even list them down to the Attack party and the Alternative for Bulgarian Development.

[Famous Mortimer]

8 parties in parliament would be a record.

[Famous Mortimer]

Do you know within the Reformist Bloc, which parties favor a coalition with GERB and which are opposed?

[Famous Mortimer]

Bulgarian Socialist Party is embarrassingly close to being overtaken by the Turkish party.

[Famous Mortimer]

Looks like the coalition will be GERB + Reformist Bloc + Alternative for Bulgarian Revival (+ Patriotic Front if that isn't enough).

[Famous Mortimer]

Apparently all the votes have been counted. I don't know why it's taking so long to work out the seats.

[Famous Mortimer]

English Wikipedia is giving these numbers, don't know where they came from:

GERB 84
BSP 39
MRF 38
Reformist Bloc 23
Patriotic Front 19
Bulgaria Without Censorship 15
Attack 11
Alternative for Bulgarian Revival 11

GERB+Reformist Bloc+ABR = 118 if those numbers are true, 3 short of a majority.

They would need to bring on the Patriotic Front or Bulgaria Without Censorship.

[Famous Mortimer]

All it takes is a single defection and MRF becomes the official opposition. That's rough.

Mantis, did you vote for the BSP again?

[Famous Mortimer]

What percentage of Roma are Muslim? Does that percentage more or less line up with the percentage that vote for the MRF?

[Famous Mortimer]

I would have guessed Attack voters were older too. Although I know they have ties with the National Bolsheviks, so maybe they have a street punk contingent.

[Famous Mortimer]

That one area Bulgaria Without Censorship won, is that where Lider is based?

[Famous Mortimer]

Do we know the internal breakdown of seats within electoral alliances yet?

[Famous Mortimer]

Interesting that the DSB is strongest since I didn't think they were that popular. I would have figured DBG was the biggest. Also worth noting that apparently DSB is the most anti-Borisov of the Reformist parties, so that might cause some problems.

Parties-and-elections.eu gives a breakdown for the Patriotic Front seats: 11 for the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria and 8 for the Inter-Macedonian Revolutionary Organization.

That just leaves Bulgaria Without Censorship. At least one of their members has to be from Lider.

Oh, and I guess some of the Socialists aren't officially Socialists either, there's bound to be at least one Social Democrat and one Communist. Although I get the impression those distinctions are pretty meaningless and they would never break away.

[Famous Mortimer]

GERB is now in coalition talks with every party except the MRF (not surprising) and Bulgaria Without Censorship.

They've even talking to the BSP.

[Famous Mortimer]

Wow.

Thanks for all that.

[Famous Mortimer]

Read an article in the Washington Post that said the MRF may try to transition itself from being a Turkish party to being an all Bulgarian party based on rural interests. Is anyone actually in Bulgaria actually saying that though? Sounds like BS to me. MRF is too hated.

Also, ABC/ABV is apparently a coalition party. Who's in that coalition?

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm hearing a lot of contradictory reports about coalition negotiations, at least in the English language news about Bulgaria.

It appears that the Reformist Bloc, Patriotic Front, and Alternative for Bulgarian Renewal have all either agreed to a coalition or stated their willingness to support a minority government.

Bulgaria Without Censorship has also offered support but apparently GERB doesn't want it.

Coalition talks with the BSP are still ongoing too.

The only parties that for sure won't take part in any government are Attack and the MRF.

Also, ABC/ABV, which was the first party to come out and say it would back GERB, has now back tracked and said they only really want to be part of a coalition if it's a GERB-BSP grand coalition.