Spanish General Election 2011

[Antonio the Sixth]

The PP was leading the polls in 2008 ? How comes ?

yes, they were tied until the month before the elections. but the impression was that PP was underpoilling. I remember a majority of people thought rajoy would win by a close margin until the presidential debates, where zapatero crushed rajoy.

Weird, at the time I had the impression that Zapatero was safe. Of course medias often suck when it's about commenting a foreign election, but still, the feeling was that PSOE was going to win easily.

[Niemeyerite]

The PP was leading the polls in 2008 ? How comes ?

yes, they were tied until the month before the elections. but the impression was that PP was underpoilling. I remember a majority of people thought rajoy would win by a close margin until the presidential debates, where zapatero crushed rajoy.

Weird, at the time I had the impression that Zapatero was safe. Of course medias often suck when it's about commenting a foreign election, but still, the feeling was that PSOE was going to win easily.

Here we thought the election would be very close... and as we know, every PP supporter votes on election day. the problem is that lots of socialists stay at home. zapatero would have lost if nationalists in catalunya and basque country hadn't voted for him (people were really afraid of a PP government).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The PP was leading the polls in 2008 ? How comes ?

yes, they were tied until the month before the elections. but the impression was that PP was underpoilling. I remember a majority of people thought rajoy would win by a close margin until the presidential debates, where zapatero crushed rajoy.

Weird, at the time I had the impression that Zapatero was safe. Of course medias often suck when it's about commenting a foreign election, but still, the feeling was that PSOE was going to win easily.

Here we thought the election would be very close... and as we know, every PP supporter votes on election day. the problem is that lots of socialists stay at home. zapatero would have lost if nationalists in catalunya and basque country hadn't voted for him (people were really afraid of a PP government).

But what I ask myself is why ? Wasn't everything going fine in Spain at that point ?

[Niemeyerite]

The PP was leading the polls in 2008 ? How comes ?

yes, they were tied until the month before the elections. but the impression was that PP was underpoilling. I remember a majority of people thought rajoy would win by a close margin until the presidential debates, where zapatero crushed rajoy.

Weird, at the time I had the impression that Zapatero was safe. Of course medias often suck when it's about commenting a foreign election, but still, the feeling was that PSOE was going to win easily.

Here we thought the election would be very close... and as we know, every PP supporter votes on election day. the problem is that lots of socialists stay at home. zapatero would have lost if nationalists in catalunya and basque country hadn't voted for him (people were really afraid of a PP government).

But what I ask myself is why ? Wasn't everything going fine in Spain at that point ?

the thing is that zapatero won in 2004 because of the irak war. many conservative people voted PSOE only to punish Aznar. remember than aznar won in a huge landslide in 2000.  zapatero lost that vote of punishment, so we thought rajoy could win.. but then, nationalists and communists helped us and zapatero was reelected. never before a president had received 11 million votes here.

[ag]

It sounds seriously stupid to not vote tactically much given the election law... yet I have a feeling that lots of people in Spain might and don't. Greece is even stranger in that respect.

Considering the probability of any individual vote to turn out to be decisive in terms of seat allocation, it is not stupid at all. To the extent that one votes to make a personal statement, it may be fun to vote whatever - more fun than voting, say, PP or PSOE. As the seat allocation, for all practical purposes, is independent of my vote, why exactly should I do anything else?

[Verily]

The PP was leading the polls in 2008 ? How comes ?

yes, they were tied until the month before the elections. but the impression was that PP was underpoilling. I remember a majority of people thought rajoy would win by a close margin until the presidential debates, where zapatero crushed rajoy.

Weird, at the time I had the impression that Zapatero was safe. Of course medias often suck when it's about commenting a foreign election, but still, the feeling was that PSOE was going to win easily.

Here we thought the election would be very close... and as we know, every PP supporter votes on election day. the problem is that lots of socialists stay at home. zapatero would have lost if nationalists in catalunya and basque country hadn't voted for him (people were really afraid of a PP government).

But what I ask myself is why ? Wasn't everything going fine in Spain at that point ?

the thing is that zapatero won in 2004 because of the irak war. many conservative people voted PSOE only to punish Aznar. remember than aznar won in a huge landslide in 2000.  zapatero lost that vote of punishment, so we thought rajoy could win.. but then, nationalists and communists helped us and zapatero was reelected. never before a president had received 11 million votes here.

My understanding was that Aznar lost the 2004 election because of the obvious attempt to pin the Madrid bombings on ETA, not due to Iraq directly. Certainly he was on track to win reelection until a couple of days after the bombing (which also happened to be a couple of days before the election). True, the bombing was actually related to Iraq, but I thought (perhaps incorrectly) that the real anger that tipped the scales was about the attempted cover-up, not about al-Qaeda launching a terrorist attack to begin with. (i.e., Aznar would have won reelection had he simply admitted it was al-Qaeda, but he tried to cover that up until after the election, and it backfired spectacularly.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Aznar could not have lost re-election as he was not actually running for re-election.

[Niemeyerite]

Aznar wasn't running for reelection... but he chose who would replace him (PP hasn't got primaries). Rajoy was Aznar in 2004.

92% of Spanish were against the War in 2004... and after 11-M it was obvious that Irak was a fatal error. But elections happened on 14-M, and there's a law here in Spain that doesn't let polls to be published the last week before the election.. so we didn't know what was going on (but obviously everybody thought that would icrease Zapatero's chances of victory). but even before 11-M, zapatero and rajoy were tied in polls (rajoy was leading since the begining of the year, but zapatero was able to catch him in polls).

[Emperor]

any polls ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

any polls ?

The KGB would hack them anyways.

[big bad fab]

The PP was leading the polls in 2008 ? How comes ?

yes, they were tied until the month before the elections. but the impression was that PP was underpoilling. I remember a majority of people thought rajoy would win by a close margin until the presidential debates, where zapatero crushed rajoy.

Weird, at the time I had the impression that Zapatero was safe. Of course medias often suck when it's about commenting a foreign election, but still, the feeling was that PSOE was going to win easily.

Here we thought the election would be very close... and as we know, every PP supporter votes on election day. the problem is that lots of socialists stay at home. zapatero would have lost if nationalists in catalunya and basque country hadn't voted for him (people were really afraid of a PP government).

But what I ask myself is why ? Wasn't everything going fine in Spain at that point ?

the thing is that zapatero won in 2004 because of the irak war. many conservative people voted PSOE only to punish Aznar. remember than aznar won in a huge landslide in 2000.  zapatero lost that vote of punishment, so we thought rajoy could win.. but then, nationalists and communists helped us and zapatero was reelected. never before a president had received 11 million votes here.

Zapatero won in 2004 because Aznar rushed to give an "explanation" for the Madrid suicide bombs: ETA, ETA, ETA !
He lied and he lost.
But till almost the end, unless my memory is bad, the PP had a plurality in opinion polls.
Of course, the PP had lost ground because of Iraq and of Rajoy's personality, but it was still ahead, if I remember correctly.

Since the end of the 1990s, the 2 blocks were almost equal, even in 2008 while the PSOE was "successful" and PP was falling asleep with Rajoy.

That's only recently that a wider gap has opened.

[Niemeyerite]

Yes, new polls:

CADENA SER:
PP 47%
PSOE 35%
IU 4.3%
CiU 3.5%
UPyD 1.5%
PNV 0.7%

Carme Chacon 45.8%
Mariano Rajoy 40%

Alfredo Perez-Rubalcaba 45%
Mariano Rajoy 40%

It must be the first time there's that difference between voting for a party and a candidate... I'm glad Chacon and Rubalcaba are leading.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Why is Rajoy still PP's PM candidate after losing two elections in a row?

[Niemeyerite]

Why is Rajoy still PP's PM candidate after losing two elections in a row?

He's the president of the party. and PP hasn't got primaries or "democratic" caucuses . Also, he's not as nutty as Esperanza Aguirre (leader of the most conservative wing of the party) and not as moderate as Gallardon (leader of the minoirity centre-right wing of the party, what's hilarious because Gallardo is the son of a Franquist minister)

[Emperor]

Yes, new polls:

CADENA SER:
PP 47%
PSOE 35%
IU 4.3%
CiU 3.5%
UPyD 1.5%
PNV 0.7%

Good to see that, I hope Spain can liberate herself from this crazy marxist idiot Zapatero this time around...

[Niemeyerite]

Yes, new polls:

CADENA SER:
PP 47%
PSOE 35%
IU 4.3%
CiU 3.5%
UPyD 1.5%
PNV 0.7%

Good to see that, I hope Spain can liberate herself from this crazy marxist idiot Zapatero this time around...

LoL. I think he isn't socialist enough. But, you only saw what you wanted. Rajoy's behind the 2 most likely candidates

[MaxQue]

Yes, new polls:

CADENA SER:
PP 47%
PSOE 35%
IU 4.3%
CiU 3.5%
UPyD 1.5%
PNV 0.7%

Good to see that, I hope Spain can liberate herself from this crazy marxist idiot Zapatero this time around...

Apparently, some people need to learn what marxism really is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, new polls:

CADENA SER:
PP 47%
PSOE 35%
IU 4.3%
CiU 3.5%
UPyD 1.5%
PNV 0.7%

Good to see that, I hope Spain can liberate herself from this crazy marxist idiot Zapatero this time around...

Hopefully the KGB will steal the election for the PSOE anyways.

[Niemeyerite]

Publiscopio

without candidates:

PP 40.1 (-3.4)
PSOE 37.8 (+7.6)
IU 7.2 (-0.9)
UPyD 2.3 (-2.5)
CiU 3.9 (+0.2)
ERC 0.6 (=)
PNV 1.7 (-0.4)
BNG 1.3 (-0.2)

If Rubalcaba is PSOE's candidate:

PSOE 40.9%
PP 39.9%

Who would you prefer as President of Spain?

Rubalcaba 47.3%
Rajoy 31%

If Chacon is PSOE's candidate:

PSOE 40.6%
PP 39.7%

Who would you prefer as President of Spain?

Chacón 46.9%
Rajoy 30.5%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting gap between the party vote and the personal vote... Quite funnily, a French-like presidential system would favor the PSOE, while it cost the French left two elections at least.

[Niemeyerite]

Interesting gap between the party vote and the personal vote... Quite funnily, a French-like presidential system would favor the PSOE, while it cost the French left two elections at least.

Yes, but the poll may be an outlier... IMO, PSOE is still triling by 5-6 points... the personal vote... I actually think Rubalcaba and Chacon tie Rajoy. they're the only popular politicians here in Spain (Javier Solana and Felipe Gonzalez don't count).

[big bad fab]

So, soon back to a balanced situation, as usual... ?

And with Rajoy again, the PP is heading towards another defeat, while they shouldn't lose in 2012...

After all, the French right may not be the stupidest of the world .

[Niemeyerite]

So, soon back to a balanced situation, as usual... ?

And with Rajoy again, the PP is heading towards another defeat, while they shouldn't lose in 2012...

After all, the French right may not be the stupidest of the world .

There's no democracy to elect PP's candidate... in any village, city, autonomic community or the whole country. that's why Rajoy is still PP's president. If PP had primaries, he would not get more than 20% of the vote, with a far-right candidate winning and a moderate candidate like Gallardon coming in 2nd place.
I'm glad PP is the stupidest conservative party of the world. that's why they have only been in government only 8 years while PSOE has governed 22 =)

[Niemeyerite]

CIS:

PP 43.8%
PSOE 33.4%

[Niemeyerite]

No new polls. But it's official: Rubalcaba will be our candidate. Chacon won't be running in the primaries, which are supposed to happen in september.
Rubalcaba has the support of every regional leader, the president and all the ministers. so, it's unlikely he'll have serious competition.