Don't forget Mississippi. It trended Democratic a bit last year so it'll be a Democratic lock by 2016. By 2018 we should just focus on holding the Idaho and Wyoming governorships because all of the other states will have tossed the RepubliKKKans.
By 2036 it will probably will be, assuming current demographic trends and blacks staying over 98% Democratic.
Ah yes and by then something will have happened to stop the trend. Have you ever seen a trend go on forever? Even for over 30 years it's hard to come by. Remember it's been trending since 2008.
Well unless Democrats start saying that black people aren't people, blacks will vote 85+% for Democrats, and they have since the 60's, ever since the Civil Rights Act. It is certain that the white population will decline and the black population will grow substantially, especially in Mississippi. The changes will make this red state blue. Not now, not next year, hell not even in the next 20 years. But in 2036 or 2040, Democrats can put this state in the lean column.
What are you talking about here? The black population is projected to stay largely stagnant, if anything a very very slow growth. Its Latinos and Asians that will grow heavily, and yes whites will decrease, and the black population will be more of the electorate (in Mississippi) over time. And it will be very slow, and will not be at the current 2012 rate, because blacks were at their best turnout in a long time and whites were at their worst turnout in a long time.
They will only become more of the electorate (In Mississippi, again) because black birth rates are higher than white birth rates. In the country overall though, blacks will stay stagnant when you factor in Latinos and Asians, which Mississippi does not have a lot of. There will be no "substantial" black growth as you describe.
According to
here, which I'm sure you're all familiar with, even if the average Democrat pulls in
100% of the black vote, Mississippi will not vote Democratic until 2052 at least.
This is assuming current trends uphold for the next 40+ years, and that the average Democrat will exceed Obama's totals in the black vote on average. If Mississippi ever goes Democrat, it will be because of a realignment or landslide, not because of small demographic trends.
