Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Crumpets]

Here's another set of numbers to look at - the "right direction/wrong direction" breakdown:

November 1st, 2010: Wrong Direction +32.2
November 3rd, 2012: Wrong Direction +14.9
November 2nd, 2014: Wrong Direction +37.8
November 8th, 2016: Wrong Direction +30.7
Current: Wrong Direction +29.1

[BudgieForce]

I wouldn't start celebrating/panicking just yet with so much time till the midterms. Still, his approvals are approaching the point of no return.

The thing is we are quickly moving pass the honeymoon phase and Trump's numbers are in the dump. And Trump doesn't have the political smarts like Bill Clinton to get himself out of this mess.

Still, Teflon Don seems to recover if he goes a week without a major gaff due to an extremely low bar. Granted, its been 2ish months of sub 40 approval ratings so I'm going to remain cautious.

[Yank2133]

What would be the point of no return approval number? 30%? I think if Trump gets too low he will pull an LBJ and not run for reelection.

If he gets below 30% then he will face a primary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What would be the point of no return approval number? 30%? I think if Trump gets too low he will pull an LBJ and not run for reelection.

Hard to say.  Clinton hit his low point (37%) at around this point in his first term and recovered very nicely.  However, Clinton was intelligent, flexible, and charismatic despite his faults; Trump is none of those things.

[BudgieForce]

What would be the point of no return approval number? 30%? I think if Trump gets too low he will pull an LBJ and not run for reelection.

George W. Bush hovered around mid 30s throughout 2007. Once his soft base left, it collapsed into the mid 20s.

[Yank2133]

I wouldn't start celebrating/panicking just yet with so much time till the midterms. Still, his approvals are approaching the point of no return.

The thing is we are quickly moving pass the honeymoon phase and Trump's numbers are in the dump. And Trump doesn't have the political smarts like Bill Clinton to get himself out of this mess.

Still, Teflon Don seems to recover if he goes a week without a major gaff due to an extremely low bar. Granted, its been 2ish months of sub 40 approval ratings so I'm going to remain cautious.

He isn't a Teflon though.

His numbers have been consistently underwater since June. This isn't just noise anymore, he has clearly lost support with key demographics that supported him in November.

[Crumpets]

People love pointing out how much farther behind other presidents Trump's numbers are, but they actually track pretty well with Bush 43's numbers if the start of Bush's presidency had been just before Hurricane Katrina.

[SoLongAtlas]

His trendlines are closest to Gerald Ford (who lost reelection). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

How Trump compares with past presidents interactive -> click the 1 year option -> scroll down

[BudgieForce]

His trendlines are closest to Gerald Ford (who lost reelection). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

How Trump compares with past presidents interactive -> click the 1 year option -> scroll down

Should be noted Gerald Ford was never underwater as much as Trump is. His disapprovals hovered in the 40's during the Nixon pardon.

[SoLongAtlas]

So the only way I can see him winning reelection is against Warren or Harris and playing the SJW vs. real American "Keep America Great" (His actual 2020 slogan) card. It could work but not if he's down into the 30s or below.

I do think he'll get a primary challenger but if it gets too low, I think Trump will bow out for Pence. If he is sure to lose, he won't run to not go out as a loser.

[Wiz in Wis]

Today's FiveThirtyEight composite score:

Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 57.5%

Both are records

[OneJ]

So the only way I can see him winning reelection is against Warren or Harris and playing the SJW vs. real American "Keep America Great" (His actual 2020 slogan) card. It could work but not if he's down into the 30s or below.

I do think he'll get a primary challenger but if it gets too low, I think Trump will bow out for Pence. If he is sure to lose, he won't run to not go out as a loser.

The issue I think with this is that "Keep America Great" is sounding like "America is great because America is good." That's one of Hillary's many mistakes, the messaging. At this rate, Trump likely won't do very well in approval so that slogan could hurt a little.

[Mike Thick]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

The problem with his model is he is just doing generic vs generic he doesn't factor in the fact that seats he has the R's holding the dems have already landed the A-star recruits in those districts or the fact Texas is going to get redrawn

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

The problem with his model is he is just doing generic vs generic he doesn't factor in the fact that seats he has the R's holding the dems have already landed the A-star recruits in those districts or the fact Texas is going to get redrawn

Yeah. I really doubt the Rs will be able to keep the House with a 6 or 7 point loss. Has that ever happened? 

[GlobeSoc]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

The problem with his model is he is just doing generic vs generic he doesn't factor in the fact that seats he has the R's holding the dems have already landed the A-star recruits in those districts or the fact Texas is going to get redrawn

Yeah. I really doubt the Rs will be able to keep the House with a 6 or 7 point loss. Has that ever happened? 

No, it has not. The GOP gerrymanders are strong, but nowhere near that strong. Democrats are already maxed out (or close to it) in most of their urban districts. Such a wild swing like that is going to come primarily from swing districts and light red seats, not safe blue or safe red seats where the challengers are jokes. Nate Silver and Dave Wasserman think that anything D+7 or so is sufficient to gain the House. If they're at 58%, then there's a zero percent chance that Republicans keep the House.

58% would be 1894 levels

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Quinnipiac has Trump at 33% Approval and 61% Disapproval today

[Person Man]

Quinnipiac has Trump at 33% Approval and 61% Disapproval today

The freeazing mark is nigh..

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac has Trump at 33% Approval and 61% Disapproval today

The freeazing mark is nigh..

Don't forget that Q has consistently been one of the worst pollsters for Trump. 

[Pericles]

Trump's approval is falling rapidly in the last few days according to the 538 tracker.

The RCP average also shows a significant decrease within a short-time span.

Looks like Trump's floor is slowly but steadily getting lower.

[maga2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

Democrats: permanent minority.

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

Democrats: permanent minority.

Please try harder. Hardly anyone will get angry at that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

Democrats: permanent minority.

Every time there's a surprising or lopsided election result, some people will say that one of the parties is headed for a permanent majority.  I've seen this claim at least half a dozen times over the years.  It hasn't happened yet, and it's not likely to happen in the future.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

Democrats: permanent minority.

Every time there's a surprising or lopsided election result, some people will say that one of the parties is headed for a permanent majority.  I've seen this claim at least half a dozen times over the years.  It hasn't happened yet, and it's not likely to happen in the future.

I think republicans need only remember the feelings they had after Arlen Specter defected in 2009. I remember quite a few pundits talking about the permanent republican minority.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

The problem with his model is he is just doing generic vs generic he doesn't factor in the fact that seats he has the R's holding the dems have already landed the A-star recruits in those districts or the fact Texas is going to get redrawn

Yeah. I really doubt the Rs will be able to keep the House with a 6 or 7 point loss. Has that ever happened? 

No, it has not. The GOP gerrymanders are strong, but nowhere near that strong. Democrats are already maxed out (or close to it) in most of their urban districts. Such a wild swing like that is going to come primarily from swing districts and light red seats, not safe blue or safe red seats where the challengers are jokes. Nate Silver and Dave Wasserman think that anything D+7 or so is sufficient to gain the House. If they're at 58%, then there's a zero percent chance that Republicans keep the House.

Yeah, he says his model was off by an average of 7 seats in 2014 and 2016 and holds that up as a sign of a high degree of accuracy... It's not, though. No more than maybe 30 seats were even contested seriously those years, so being off by 7 seats is not at all impressive and certainly not a "98% accuracy rate." Moreover, wave and non-wave elections behave quite differently as the number of serious and competitive candidates goes up dramatically on one side in a wave. I suspect his model would do quite badly if applied to 2006 or 2010.