Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, July 27-29, 1972 RV (MOE 2%)

Approve 42% (-1 from last week)
Disapprove 53% (+1)

Strongly approve/disapprove is 22/41.

Congressional generic ballot is D 44, R 37.

[Gass3268]

Trump's numbers are not looking good on the 538 average:

56.9 Disapprove
37.6 Approve

[Wiz in Wis]

Yougov (change from last week):

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 54% (+3)

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tn9k94h20u/econTabReport.pdf

[Person Man]

Do you think his numbers will dip below freezing?

[Wiz in Wis]

Do you think his numbers will dip below freezing?

538's "adjusted Rasmussen numbers" have him at 33/67. Possible, but not especially likely - not in the next week or so.

[Wiz in Wis]

Do you think his numbers will dip below freezing?

Eventually. Remember in January how people weee mocking the idea that Trump would hit below 40? Lol

I think it depends on the time horizon:

Eventually: yes, 100%
Soon (next 3 months): no, not likely - baring a major, sudden recession or the pee tape.

[SoLongAtlas]

Do you think his numbers will dip below freezing?

Eventually. Remember in January how people weee mocking the idea that Trump would hit below 40? Lol

I think it depends on the time horizon:

Eventually: yes, 100%
Soon (next 3 months): no, not likely - baring a major, sudden recession or the pee tape.

Three months may be possible given the trajectory we're going and constant terrible headlines from self-inflicted wounds (that anyone would be foolish to think will just suddenly go away). He's gone from mid-40's to about mid-30's in six months. Dropping another ~5% or so isn't really unreasonable by November. Hell, if there's a recession or a foreign policy disaster, it may even be likely. But if I was to guess now, I'd say wait until spring 2018 or so til it drops to low 30's and disapproval is consistently breaking 60%.

Agree but that is predicated on no war, Trump would get a RATF bounce from a US-NK war.

[Dr. Arch]

Amazing crashes today across the board, healthcare/WH fallout?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Do you think his numbers will dip below freezing?

Eventually. Remember in January how people weee mocking the idea that Trump would hit below 40? Lol

I think it depends on the time horizon:

Eventually: yes, 100%
Soon (next 3 months): no, not likely - baring a major, sudden recession or the pee tape.

Three months may be possible given the trajectory we're going and constant terrible headlines from self-inflicted wounds (that anyone would be foolish to think will just suddenly go away). He's gone from mid-40's to about mid-30's in six months. Dropping another ~5% or so isn't really unreasonable by November. Hell, if there's a recession or a foreign policy disaster, it may even be likely. But if I was to guess now, I'd say wait until spring 2018 or so til it drops to low 30's and disapproval is consistently breaking 60%.

Agree but that is predicated on no war, Trump would get a RATF bounce from a US-NK war.

Not necessarily, and I would argue they'd go down. Americans are super weary of war, and there's no real benefit of the doubt that the media and Democrats will give Trump like they did to Bush in 2002. The Iraq war happened because of 9/11. Starting something with North Korea is completely disanalogous.

I agree. Remember that candidate Trump liked to talk (as did candidate Bush) about ending nation-building, and getting us out of foreign interventions. A war of choice by Trump could backfire badly on him.

Really, what he's probably hoping for is a major terrorist attack (by brown people he can use to focus his xenophobia, not Trump supporters) ideally from some place he can go invade and proclaim victory.  Trump probably dreams about Eco-Communist Guatemalan Muslim terrorists blowing up the Senate.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (August 1st)

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 60% (+1)

[OneJ]

Gallup (August 1st)

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 60% (+1)

Lol. The crashing across the board is hilarious.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup (August 1st)

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 60% (+1)

*Gasp*

[Holmes]

Yeah and Republicans are going to gain 8 seats in the Senate

[Middle-aged Europe]

Glorious, marvelous, flawlessly beautiful 60% disapproval.

Now go to 61%, please. Because this is in fact the second time he ever managed to reach a 60% disapproval in a Gallup poll. We need a new all-time high here.

[OkThen]

New Q-Pac Numbers...
33/61, including 55% who strongly disapprove.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2476

[heatcharger]

Quinnipiac poll:

Approve 33% (-7)
Disapprove 61% (+6)

All-time low.

[heatcharger]

Quinnipiac poll:

Approve 33% (-7)
Disapprove 61% (+6)

All-time low.

These 60%+ disapprovals coming in hot today

He's at 33/65 with college whites and 43/50 with non-college whites. I would like to see their congressional ballot numbers with that.

[Yank2133]

Yeah, it might be time for Republicans to start panicking.

[Holmes]

Four polls with approvals in the 30s and three of them with disapprovals in the 60s. Stick a fork in him. I'm a little worried that he'll be even more rash now because he has nothing to lose and/or wants to fix his image.

[Dr. Arch]

Four polls woth approvals in the 30s and three of them with disapprovals in the 60s. Stick a fork in him. I'm a little worried that he'll be even more rash now because he has nothing to lose and/or wants to fix his image.

Didn't you hear 2020 will be another 1984?

[SoLongAtlas]

Quinnipiac poll:

Approve 33% (-7)
Disapprove 61% (+6)

All-time low.

These 60%+ disapprovals coming in hot today

He's at 33/65 with college whites and 43/50 with non-college whites. I would like to see their congressional ballot numbers with that.

RCP has the 2018 generic vote at D+8.9 so not wipeout territory but still a bad day for the GOP.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

[BudgieForce]

I wouldn't start celebrating/panicking just yet with so much time till the midterms. Still, his approvals are approaching the point of no return.

[Yank2133]

I wouldn't start celebrating/panicking just yet with so much time till the midterms. Still, his approvals are approaching the point of no return.

The thing is we are quickly moving pass the honeymoon phase and Trump's numbers are in the dump. And Trump doesn't have the political smarts like Bill Clinton to get himself out of this mess.

[kyc0705]

Gallup (August 1st)

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 60% (+1)

Quinnipiac poll:

Approve 33% (-7)
Disapprove 61% (+6)

All-time low.

[SoLongAtlas]

What would be the point of no return approval number? 30%? I think if Trump gets too low he will pull an LBJ and not run for reelection.