Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

After a long political season with both European elections, a general election and a government formation, it has been a relatively quite summer with many politicians taking some well-deserved time off. However, now they are beginning to return from their holidays with at least two big questions looming large in Danish politics. What will happen in the Liberal leadership after the loss of power, and will Mette Frederiksen be able to make a deal on her early retirement scheme with DPP?

Despite two decent election results, few expect Liberal leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen to stay in his post long-term after losing the premiership for the second time. The other Blue parties are still fuming after his election campaign where he threw them under the bus and stated his ambition to form a coalition with the Social Democrats. And inside the Liberals many have been expecting and hoping for his resignation for a while, although those who want to challenge Kristian Jensen in the succession battle perhaps hopes Løkke will stay on to allow them more time to build up support for a rival candidate and perhaps even force Jensen into a fatiguing battle against Løkke first. So far Løkke's own comment has been that "I and the Liberals have the ambition to win back the key to the prime ministry". On Monday, the Liberals are expected to distribute the two top posts (excluding party leader) in the party as parliamentary group leader and political spokesperson. There have been talk of Jensen expecting to be the leader or soon-to-be leader, and getting two of his backers, loyalist Karsten Lauritzen and Sophie Løhde who have moved in his direction, in these two posts. However, since no leadership change seems imminent, Kristian Jensen himself is now expected to get one of these two spots, but his opponents might prevent him from filling the other one, particularly after his underwhelming personal vote result in the election. In fact, his biggest potential rival for the Liberal leadership, Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, seems like a likely candidate. In addition to the two big posts, the rest of the positions (spokespersons, committee chairs etc.) will be distributed during the week. It will be interesting to see how the many experienced ministers from the different camps are positioned, what role former Immigration Minister Inger Støjberg and her supporters will get, and whether newer talents like Tommy Ahlers and Marie Bjerre will get prominent positions.

For the Social Democrats, the most important election theme was the introduction of a right to early retirement for an undefined group of people, but they couldn't convince the Social Liberals to support this idea in government negotiations. Instead the parties agreed to implement the easier right to early retirement for worn-down workers, which was agreed between the previous government, Social Liberals and DPP (for further details on the two proposals, see here https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=315151.msg6779291#msg6779291). However, the Social Democrats are still eager to implement their proposal, and Mette Frederiksen mentioned it as the government's first priority when she presented her new government. An agreement with the DPP seems the only possible avenue for such an agreement, but if DPP has not lost all their political abilities after two big defeats, they should charge a high price for such an agreement. Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the exact scheme proposed by the government will look. Who will get the right to early retirement?

While it has been a quite summer, there have been a few different political topics. After the formation of the government, there was a bit of focus on Mette Frederiksen's expanded team of advisors and the decision to place her closest advisor, Martin Rossen, in an unprecedented role as Chief of Staff with authority over some of the neutral civil servants and a spot at the table in the Inner Cabinet. Immigration Minister Matias Tesfaye has contacted UN to state that, as agreed in the government formation, Denmark will again start taking quota refugees (expected 30 this year, 500 next year). Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod and Minister of Defense Trine Bramsen has announced that the government with the backing of several other parties intends to support the British-led naval force to protect merchant ships in the Hormuz Strait. Finally, it has been announced that US President Donald Trump will visit Denmark 2-3 September. It is not yet clear what the main topics will be, but the Arctic Area is expected to be an important issue.

The general election thread (with some great Filuwaúrdjan maps) is here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=315151.0

[Diouf]

New Liberal leadership elected - Støjberg defeated



Today, the Liberals' parliamentary group elected their new leadership. The battle for the two most important jobs (after the leader) ended with a truce between Kristian Jensen and Jakob Ellemann-Jensen who were elected unopposed as parliamentary group leader and political spokesperson respectively. So Jensen did not get the full control he had probably hoped for, but both Jensen and Ellemann agreed to this deal where there would be no voting and thereby no "leadership vote dress rehearsal" between the two or some of their proxies. However, there was a vote about the parliamentary group deputy leadership. Former Immigration Minister Inger Støjberg ran against Sophie Løhde, who was Minister of Health and then Minister of Public Innovation. A contest which Løhde won (with a so far unknown margen). A humbling defeat for Støjberg after a big personal vote haul at the general election, but perhaps her self-promoting style and strongly divisive rhetoric prevented her getting backed by a majority of the group. Also an impressive victory for Løhde, who is perhaps now a dark horse for the leadership or at least ensuring a major role for her in any leadership. And the Liberals haven't had a female leader yet. DPP leader Kristian Thulelsen Dahl used Støjberg's defeat to indicate that Liberals are getting soft on immigration by tweeting: "What just happened? Inger Støjberg ditched for the Liberal leaderhip. They of course decide their own leadership composition, but if this means a change of course in the immigration policies, this is obviously worrying". I would expect something similar soon from the New Right's Pernille Vermund, who in the past days have attacked Løkke, whom she says she could never support and hopes that he quickly leaves for another job.

EDIT: Liberal MEP Søren Gade, who is popular among voters and a close Støjberg ally, also expresses his disappointment:"I am worried about who will now represent the views, which caused so many voters to return to the Liberals at the last two elections"

[Diouf]

Tensions within Liberals intensify, while Frederiksen begins differentiated retirement negotiations



On the front page of centre-right daily Berlingske, Kristian Jensen came out with a clear criticism of Løkke and his handling of the election campaign. He says that he wasn't informed until a day or two before about Løkke's sudden turn towards campaigning on entering into government with the Social Democrats. Jensen says the Liberals need to ditch any thought of a SV-government, and lead the Blue parties by aiming for a right-wing government.



Meanwhile Mette Frederiksen alongside Minister of Employment, Peter Hummelgaard Thomsen, and her Chief of Staff, Martin Rossen, started negotiations with the trade unions and employer organizations about her proposal to introduce a differentiated retirement scheme, where some groups get the right to retire early. Her hope is probably to get an agreement on a scheme with both organizations which indicate so big civil support that DPP will feel forced to support it in parliament. However, so far the employer organization sounds quite critical as they believe the proposal will exacerbate the current labour shortages.

[Diouf]

Liberal group meeting right now, and it seems like the big battle is taking place. Former Defence Minister and long-time Minister of Finance under Løkke, Claus Hjort Frederiksen, has apparently taken the word and said that Kristian Jensen should resign from all posts in the leadership after his criticism of Løkke.

https://twitter.com/Marchen_Neel/status/1159751544759300096

[Diouf]

Kristian Jensen again seemed to prepare a big offensive against Løkke with his criticism, but, like in the big leadership crisis in 2014, he decided to withdraw from the battle in the last minute. Whether this is because he doubts his ability to actually beat Løkke, concern for the party's well-being by avoiding a tough leadership fight or simply a personal preference to avoid big conflicts is hard to say, but it means that there is increasing talk that he might never take the final step to the throne in the party. And maybe even some of his supporters are starting to doubt whether he is the right candidate for their wing.

After his criticism of Løkke, Claus Hjort Frederiksen + other Løkke loyalists stated at the group meeting friday that Kristian Jensen should resign from his positions in the leadership. Jensen apparently decided to retreat instead of going for the final battle against Løkke. Jensen apologized for speculating about this in public and says he should have shared this internally instead. Furthermore, he succumbed to the Liberal's line on government participation: "The primary goal is for Liberals to lead the government, but aren't ruling out any government combinations". However, even after Jensen's public apology, Hjort Frederiksen re-stated his demand for Jensen's resignation in public and stated that Løkke as party leader set the direction and there shouldn't be any more attempts to include Jensen in a shared party leadership (which was a part of the 2014 agreement, but you can discuss whether Løkke ever really lived up to this). This means the battle has continued in the days since friday with proxy attacks between Løkke and Jensen-supporters. Louise Schack Elholm has called Claus Hjort "illoyal, backstabbing and damaging to the party", and Anni Matthiesen called on Hjort to stop his damaging statements.
The Liberal party congress in November is looking very interesting currently, and it could end with battles for both the leadership and deputy leadership of the party. The current attacks between MPs on and off the record are certainly likely to damage the party.

[Diouf]

Calls for Løkke and Jensen to quit simultaneously



There is an now an increasing number of calls from Liberal councillors and local chairmen for both Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Kristian Jensen to quit. Their actions are called irresponsible and entrenching the party's division into two person-driven wings. Many of them mention a possible "dream ticket" to replace them with Jakob Ellemann-Jensen as leader and Stephanie Lose, Chairman of Southern Denmark Region & the Association of Regions, as deputy leader.

[Diouf]

Løkke intends to stay as leader. Wants party congress soon

More and more local Liberal party organizations have voiced their wish for Løkke and Jensen to leave. This evening, Lars Løkke has asked the party's executive committee to move forward its party congress from 16-17 November to a date before the end of September. Løkke says that all the unrest means the decision must be taken swiftly, and that he is running to stay as leader. This is an attempt to regain momentum in the leadership crisis, and now the question is obviously whether it will work. Løkke's advantage is that there isn't yet any rival to the leadership position. Ellemann-Jensen is the oft-mentioned replacement, but he is himself a part of the leadership and has so far tried to stay away from getting blood on his hands in the Løkke-Jensen battle, hoping to climb onto an empty throne at some point. And Kristian Jensen himself might be to rattled after the events of recent weeks to run against Løkke. What will the local organizations do if Ellemann-Jensen refuse to run? Stephanie Lose has been mentioned as a possible new deputy leader, and she is perhaps the strongest and most popular of all the Liberals in local and regional politics. But does she want to run for leader without any experience in national politics (and a quite good current situation)? Perhaps the rebels could simply run a "stand-in candidate" who will say that (s)he is running to get Løkke to step down, so that the real candidate(s) for leader will announce their candidature once Løkke is gone. And closely connected to the question of who is leader, is of course who will be deputy leader?

[Diouf]

New poll by YouGov for BT of most-liked party leader. People were asked: "No matter your own political preferences, how is your view of the following persons?" They could then choose from 1-5, with 1 meaning very bad, 2 bad, 3 neither good nor bad, 4 good, 5 very good.
Unfortunately, the newspaper does not provide anything else than the average result for each party leader. It would be nice to know how many said don't know or gave 3s, and who attracted a lot of 1s and 5s. Most of it is perhaps not that spectacular as each bloc will probably rate up those on their own side and rate down those on the other side. However, I do think it's interesting that Pernille Vermund's rating is so high, which suggests that she is seen as a "normal" party leader, unlike Rasmus Paludan who is beyond the pale, even for many right-wing voters. So despite Løkke often lumping their two parties together, it surely seems like Vermund would be broadly accepted as a part of a new Blue Bloc. Which would then of course also require some willingness to compromise from Vermund.

Søren Pape (Conservative) 3.39
Mette Frederiksen (Social Democrat) 3.36
Pernille Skipper (Red-Green Alliance) 3.28
Pia Olsen Dyhr (SPP) 3.17
Pernille Vermund (New Right) 3.17
Isabella Arendt (Christian Democrats) 3.08
Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Liberals) 2.99
Kristian Thulelsen Dahl (DPP) 2.87
Morten Østergaard (Social Liberals) 2.75
Alex Vanopslagh (Liberal Alliance) 2.51
Uffe Elbæk (Alternative) 2.37
Rasmus Paludan (Tough Line) 1.48

[Diouf]

Latest update on the Liberal saga: Several newspapers are reporting that the regional leaders of Liberals contacted the party secretary on phone and later on mail (with Løkke and Jensen CCed) to request a meeting to agree on moving forward the congress. The party secretary and Løkke rejected the meeting, and then Løkke decided to go public with the request as his own. Probably not something which made them happier. In these days, the Liberal local leaders have met at the regional level to discuss the party's future ahead of an executive committee meeting on Friday and Saturday. In Region Zealand, Northern Jutland and Southern Denmark, large majorities apparently wanted to get rid of both Jensen and Løkke. In the Capital region, they want to get rid of Jensen and keep Løkke, but seemed willing to sacrifice the latter to achieve party unity. And finally, the representatives from the key region Central Jutland is meeting today, where a large majority is also expected to want both Jensen and Løkke out.

[Diouf]

The Central Jutland region of the Liberals, which includes the Western Jutland heartland, has now gone public with their demand that Løkke and Jensen resigns. They state that the pair should resign "for the sake of the Liberals' future, credibility and stability". All 23 members of the regional committee, which includes all municipal leaders in the region, agree on this message. With the reported majority in the other regions in favour of their resignation, it is hard to see how Løkke and Jensen could survive. Now the question is how much they want to damage the party by dragging the fight out.

[Diouf]

TV2 now reporting that Kristian Jensen has told Løkke that they should both resign. This is reported just hours before a meeting in the Liberal bureau, and the day before a meeting in the party's executive committee. Løkke's opponents among the MPs are also finally coming out and asking him to leave, five MPs so far, including party nestor Bertel Haarder.

[Diouf]

They are gone! Lars Løkke Rasmussen has resigned as leader of the Liberals. After hours of heavy criticism against him in the party's bureau and executive committee, he was defeated on his wish to start an early congress by a "policy seminar" where the party would discuss the political line in the years to come. The bureau and executive committee simply wants Løkke and Jensen gone and wanted the agenda to only have the election of leader and deputy leader.
Løkke's tweet below: "It's important to keep one's self-respect. I cannot lead a party where I, as leader, am barred from discussing and testing my political line at the party congress, where I was elected. Thank you for many good years".

https://twitter.com/larsloekke/status/1167729739114500097

[Diouf]

Lars Løkke Rasmussen has left the meeting in anger at the backdoor, while Kristian Jensen has just announced his resignation in a live statement in front of all the Danish media. An unworthy, but perhaps not unsurprising, exit for the famously moody Løkke.
Jensen's statements painted a somewhat different picture. He said that he had encouraged Løkke several times that both of them should resign, also at yesterday and today's meetings. Løkke had refused and pondered aloud that there wasn't even anyone runnning against him. Jensen had then offered to run against him, which according to Jensen, made Løkke resign. Jensen then immediately resigned himself and made clear he wouldn't run as leader.
Jensen was teary at times, and stated that politics isn't always fair, he has spent more than 25 years of his life in the party and hoped to become leader, but that he must do the best thing for the party. "A party has a leader, it's not a leader which has a party" Jensen said in an obvious criticism of Løkke's behaviour, particularly in the last weeks. He said he wouldn't comment on who the new leader and new deputy leader should be, and that he hadn't made up his mind on whether and/or how he would continue in politics (he is not only deputy leader, he is also parliamentary group leader and the party's representative in the State Auditor Bureau).

[Diouf]

The Liberals will have an extraordinary party congress on 21 September to elect a new leader and deputy leader. Kristian Jensen will be acting leader until the congress.

[Diouf]

This seems to be the live results page for the Faroe election
http://kvf.fo/kvf/logtingsval-2019

Yeah, so far it seems all three government parties are down 2-4%, although there is talk that Progress could have made improvements in Torshavn. Their majority was only one seat, and so far it looks like at least the two big government parties (Social Democrats and Republic) will lose a seat each.

[Diouf]

I'm no expert on Faroese politics, but it would be quite in line with international trends if rural areas moves right/conservative and urban areas move left/liberal. So perhaps the government has held up better in Torshavn, or at least Progress. Or their projections simply aren't working properly

EDIT: Probably the latter is right at least. Now they have adjusted Progress down to 5.4% and 2 seats

[Diouf]

Results in Torshavn weren't much better for the government, so it was mainly KVF's projections that were a bit shaky.
Social Democrats and Republic both lost a seat, so the government lost its narrow majority. Self-Government also lost a seat, while the two major centre-right parties gained. The People's Party went from 6 to 8 seats, while the Union party increased from 6 to 7 seats.

[Diouf]

Agreement on temporary benefit increase for families & Ellemann-Jensen set for coronation



The government, Social Liberals, SPP and Red-Green Alliance has agreed on a temporary benefit increase for families with children from 0-14 years of age. The three support parties all want a complete removal of the benefit cap and the lower "integration benefit" for immigrants, but Social Democrats are wary. An expert group has been set down to look at possible options, which will be ready in the summer 2020. Until then, the parties have agreed to make a temporary increase of the benefits for families with children aged 0-14, who are currently hit by the benefit cap or receives the integration benefit. There are some different levels, but in general the increase will be 600 DKK (80 euro) per child per month. Single parents will receive an extra 650 DKK a month. This is expected to increase benefits for 14 300 families with 27 900 children.

In the Liberals, no one has yet announced their candidacy as leader or deputy leader, but it looks like Jakob Ellemann-Jensen will be coronated as the new Liberal leader. MPs and mayors from all sides of the party has announced their support for him. A few local voices have said that it might be good with an leadership election to get a better view of the leadership candidates' priorities, but it looks unlikely that any serious candidate will run. Many have proposed that the party ditches the idea of an heir apparent as deputy leader after the problems it created with Kristian Jensen in that post. Instead, a solution like the Social Democratic one is proposed, where there are two deputy leaders, one from parliament and one from local/regional politics. However, it is not clear whether that will be decided already at the extraordinary party congress. The race for the other top posts in the party is less settled, but a solution with Inger Støjberg as deputy leader, Sophie Løhde as political spokesperson and Karsten Lauritzen as parliamentary group leader sounds like the most likely at the moment. Kristian Jensen is seen as having a future in the party, probably as a spokesperson for Foreign Affairs, EU or UN World Goals, while Lars Løkke and Claus Hjort will probably not play a significant role in the party anymore. I don't think Løkke will pull a SDG and start a new party, even though his exit as leader was almost as bitter and angry.

[Diouf]

Jakob Ellemann-Jensen has officially announced his candidacy as Liberal leader. In his interviews, he rejects the idea of a SV-government, "Mette Frederiksen has decided to base her government on the far left, so that isn't even an viable option. Liberals belong in the Blue family. Of course we can cooperate with Social Democrats and Social Liberals in some areas, but cooperation in some areas is different from government cooperation." In terms of the New Right, he says that he won't rule out cooperation with any of the Blue parties, but will not accept ultimatums. He intends to unite the Blue parties. He says Inger Støjberg will be a strong candidate for deputy leader.

I don't think Løkke will pull a SDG and start a new party, even though his exit as leader was almost as bitter and angry.

Thomas Funding, political editor of Avisen Danmark, writes that Løkke has actually aired this idea in meetings with some Liberals during the past weeks in phrases a la "I'm not gonna start a new party, but this treatment could almost make me consider it etc". He writes that most Liberals considered it a veiled, but emtpy threat. Also most of Løkke's loyal supporters have come out in support of Ellemann as new leader. Løkke himself has not faced any media after his resignation, and some doubt whether he will even turn up for the extraordinary party congress.

[Diouf]

Inger Støjberg officially candidate for Deputy Leader. She has public support from most of the immigration hardliners and those loyal to Løkke, but I haven't seen any announcements yet from those in the Jensen-wing. Ellen Trane Nørby seems the most likely potential candidate, especially since she is maybe the biggest name without a spot in the front row if Løhde and Lauritzen gets the other top spots as is rumoured. Can a deal be made with Nørby behind the scenes or will we get an open battle for deputy leader?

[Diouf]

A bit more Løkke speculation. Tabloid Ekstra Bladet has Løkke on the front page with "threatens to start new party" with claims that a sponsor has lined up 4 million DKK to help him start up if he wishes. Additionally, the domain name for Liberalt Centrum (Liberal Centre) has been reserved yesterday.

[Diouf]

Does Løkke have enough loyal voters to make this work?

I doubt Denmark needs another party with Liberal in the name

I still doubt he will do it, and we don't know much about what the party would entail. One would imagine something similar to the Liberals, but with a focus on cross-bloc government formation and cooperation, keeping out extreme parties from influence, and perhaps an added emphasis on EU-cooperation and green issues. Many, including Løkke, believe that a significant part of their progress in the election campaign was due to the message about an SV-government and keeping out the extremes. But that was in a campaign with a rabid Rasmus Paludan on the right wing, who many rightwing voters found repulsive. So does that message work in a less toxic environment and as leader of a small party instead of a big one? I'm not so sure. Similarly the 40.000 personal votes was as Liberal leader vying to be PM, not leader of a start up with an establishment message. But as always in Denmark, 2% isn't that much.
I think mostly Løkke is just very grumpy. I'm not sure he is really interested in the organizational aspect of starting a new party, but obviously enjoys the parliamentary games and the specific policy debates. And again, most if not all of his loyal supporters seem to be moving on, and have supported Ellemann and Støjberg as the new leadership.

[Diouf]

Ellen Trane Nørby is running against Inger Støjberg to be Liberal deputy leader. Nørby was recently Minister of Health, and before that Minister of Children and Education. She has been a prominent member of the European Movement, which I guess might be a slight disadvantage now that its current leader is a left-liberal lunatic (#FBPE X10). Although the party members are likely more pro-EU than voters. She was supposed to be EU Parliament lead candidate in 2014 before she became pregnant. She won 13.477 personal votes in Southern Jutland in 2019, the most of any Liberal candidate. A fair bit below Støjberg's 28.420 votes in Western Jutland, but Southern Jutland arguably has more, stronger Liberal candidates with a strong local backing. The party members are probably less Støjberg-leaning than the Liberal voters, so Trane Nørby should certainly have a chance. But many MPs have signalled support for Støjberg, and there was many stories of dissatisfied Liberal voters when Støjberg was overlooked for a leadership spot in the parliamentary group a few weeks ago, so there will be some pressure to give her an important position and not seen as "unwanted" by the party despite a big popularity among voters.

[Diouf]

Lars Løkke finally speaks after his departure through the back door two weeks ago.

More than 800 persons have written him and encouraged him to start a new party. However, he says that he has full faith in Ellemann-Jensen keeping the party on the "right track" with faith in international cooperation, working for cooperation across the centre etc. So it sounds slightly like he's making a slight threat "but if you veer of that track, I might do it". The question is whether anyone believes it. He repeated some of the criticisms of the other Blue Bloc parties, which made governing very difficult. LA made ultimatums, and DPP only wanted to block things, not take influence. He even fired again at Thulelsen Dahl by saing his speech yesterday at the DPP congress was incoherent, as Thulelsen Dahl both said that it was a mistake not to enter government in 2015, but then also said that the party should have taken down Løkke instead of letting him sign the Marrakech pact. He said this shows that they now want to pretend to be serious about governing, but still won't make the decisions necessary to govern.

He said that he don't intend to to turn up at the extraordinary party congress in a week, but he will turn up at the ordinary party congress in a few months. He will not comment on who should be deputy speaker.

He said there were two reasons why he didn't resign on election night. Firstly, he believed that Mette Frederiksen would get huge problems in governing with Social Liberals and Red-Green Alliance, so he was ready to enter into the SV-government or even take over the reins if Frederiksen's government collapsed or couldn't be formed. The second reasons was that his preferred successor was Ellemann-Jensen, and it wasn't certain that he would replace him if he had withdrawn immediately.

He said that he is still a "political animal", but that all politics does not take place in parliament. He did not say no when asked about looking for a possible position in the private sector or NGO, but so far he remains a MP. He will now tour around the country with the author, who wrote the interview book which was published during the election campaign.

Løkke also talked about the 2014 leadership crisis. He said he made no promises about influence to Kristian Jensen. He said it became clear at the meeting that Jensen had no majority to take down Løkke, so Jensen and Løkke agreed to not take the vote which would show the divisions in the party. But he did not promise influence for Jensen. This is of course contrary to what Jensen has said was agreed between the two.

[Diouf]

New Liberal leadership elected



Today in Herning, the Liberals elected their new leadership in an extraordinary congress. Jakob Ellemann-Jensen was elected as leader as the sole candidate, 21 years after his dad Uffe resigned from the same position after the extremely narrow 1998 election loss. There were two candidates for deputy leader, Ellen Trane Nørby and Inger Støjberg, and the latter won a suprisingly big victory. 577 delegates voted for Støjberg, while 206 voted for Nørby. A resounding victory for the former Minister of Immigration. The party will hope for a calmer period after months of infighting, and if they successfully manage to reshuffle the parliamentary group positions in the coming days, there should be a decent chance of this happening. And with two relatively popular persons in charge, who were in the top of the Minister rankings, a bounce for the party could easily happen.